Final Numbers and Analysis of Coleman-Franken

With what looks to be the final poll released today in the topsy-turvy Minnesota Senate race, let's do a last inventory of the polling in the contest over the last week to see if we can draw any conclusions on the state of things before I issue my final election predictions.

42-38-15 Franken (Star Tribune, 10/29-10/31)
45-40-14 Franken (PPP, 10/28-10/30)
43-40-15 Coleman (R2K, 10/27-10/29)
43-39-14 Coleman (Rasmussen, 10/28)
42-36-12 Coleman (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/27-10/28)
41-37-17 Franken (Minn. Nat. Public Radio/Humphrey Inst., 10/24-10/28)

In the last week, we get three with Franken ahead (by +4, +5, and +4), and three with Coleman up (by +3, +4, and +6). Averaged out, we get the following:

Norm Coleman 40.5 percent
Al Franken 40.5 percent
Dean Barkley 14.5 percent

An exact tie. 40.5 to 40.5. Wow--what a race!

Now, let's see look at the released data that some of the polls have provided.

The freshest poll, from today's Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune, gives us the following cross-tabs:

Among men: 39-38-20 Franken
Among women: 44-39-11 Franken

Democrats: 81-3-12 Franken
Republicans: 86-3-10 Coleman
Independents: 35-32-25 Coleman

Seemingly, an almost equal number of Democrats and Republicans are supporting Barkley, but given that there are many more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota this year, the gap is wider. More Dems are voting for the independent candidate.

Franken is also running way behind Barack Obama among every group. Obama is winning men 48-45 (+3), and women 57-39 (+18). That may be Franken's hardest problem to shake, as he is at only +5 with female voters. Obama is also winning Democrats 97-1, and indies 45-42. While I think the first split is probably a little to high, Obama is very likely over 90 percent with his party faithful, while over 10 percent of that overall group is bleeding over to support Dean Barkley to keep the Senate race close. I also see Obama's lead with independents higher than three points. Obama leads by 53-42 in the state as a whole.

Public Policy Polling also finds Franken way behind Obama, even though it gives him a five-point edge. It finds Obama up 57-41, with Franken at 45-40-14.

Among men: Franken leads 44-40-15/Obama leads 56-41
Among women: Franken leads 45-40-13/Obama leads 57-41

The female number pretty much matches the Star Tribune's finding, but Franken is stronger with men according to PPP.

Among Democrats: Franken leads 81-8-10/Obama leads 93-6
Among Republicans: Coleman leads 85-8-7/McCain leads 88-12
Among Independents: Franken leads 35-34-26/Obama leads 55-37

PPP thus finds Franken at the same level with his party as the Star-Tribune, in the low 80s, but PPP finds more undecideds in the group. Either way, Franken is weak at 80-to-81 percent among his base, and Barkley is getting 10-12 percent at least.

As usual, we get all of the data from Kos/R2K:

Overall: 43-40-15 Coleman

Among men: 47-36-16 Coleman
Among women: 44-39-14

Democrats: 74-10-13 Franken
Republicans: 89-4-6 Coleman
Independents: 41-30-28 Coleman

Favorables

Coleman: 46/51 overall (-5); 50/47 men, 42/55 women, 44/51 indies
Franken: 45/52 overall (-7); 41/57 men, 49/47 women, 40/57 indies

First thought: whew, both men are in the negatives. This campaign has taken a toll on both of them. Tens of millions of dollars in attack ads, and countless mud-slinging will do that to a political candidate.

R2K finds Franken's level of support with women close to the two polls above. R2K's big differences are among men, where the pollster does not find Franken terribly competitive, and among independents where R2K says Coleman enjoys a double-digit lead, while the other two show the Democrat slightly ahead among this group. We also see that the level of support for Dean Barkley is basically identical in all three: 15, 14, 15.

R2K does echo that Franken is way behind Obama in the state: Obama leads by 53-38 overall, including 50-41 among men, 52-39 among women, 86-6 among Democrats, and 55-36 with independents. I think all of this data gibes, except his level of support split among the sexes. I don't think that Obama is at +9 with men and +13 with women -- I think the gulf is a little wider personally, but maybe not by much as R2K and PPP (which found Obama at +16 with women, and +15 with men) are in agreement here.

The other two polls don't provide much other data.

On the whole, I think this data gives us greater clarity on the margins, but because the polls go in some different directions I am not sure that we have a clearer picture of this race itself. Here's what we know:

--Al Franken has problems with his party base, with about 10 percent going to Dean Barkley, if not more.

--More Democrats than Republicans are going to Barkley, though slices of both groups dislike the two major party candidates a good deal (as evidenced by R2K's low favorability splits for both Franken and Coleman). Both men have seen their personal splits take a huge hit this electon season.

--Al Franken is running way behind Barack Obama with every single important group.

--With the last six polls, all from this week, showing an average tie between Franken and Coleman, this should be the tightest Senate contest in the country on Tuesday (with Georgia and Kentucky perhaps right behind).

--We will have our own amateur prediction of this contest. We will even provide a final margin. Stay tuned.