House Picture So Far

Houses race developed interestingly tonight, and Democrats did not do as well as I thought they would.

*Both Diaz-Balart brothers survived. In FL-21, Raul Martinez just had too much baggage, and the NRCC was very smart in dumping big resources here. I have not had a chance to go through the numbers yet, but I guess this means that Cubans are still strongly Republican in South Florida.

*I got my survivors wrong. In CT-04, Chris Shays was finally vanquished by the Democrats, but Mark Kirk pulled off an incredible hold,winning a liberal district north of Chicago. Also, Steve Chabot looks to be holding on in Cincinnati, despite Obama's strength at the top of the ticket.

*Gary Trauner got slugged. I should have gone with my head, and not my heart. He simply could not rack up the large margins he needed in those southern counties to offset big losses in the north. The problem was that unlike Barbara Cubin, Wyomingites mostly like Lummis, so there was no reason to pull the lever for a Democrat. Always go with your gut.

*That same advice applies in LA-06. I felt the minute Michael Jackson announced as an independent that Don Cazayoux was screwed. I should have stuck with that belief. Jackson's poor bankroll was irrlevant, really, as far as stopping his ability to cost the Democrats a seat.

*So much for my vaunted upset picks: both IN-03 and TX-10 look like easy GOP holds. Shows how little I know.

*One thing I had right: all of that money the DCCC spent in NY-26 was a total waste.

*Paul Kanjorski looks like he will survive! Another bad call by me. He should thank (1) Barack Obama; and (2) the DCCC's coffers for saving his butt.

More later.