Now It's 174 Votes

The recount has begun in Minnesota, and what was once a 205, then a 206, then a 215 vote lead for Norm Coleman, is now down to 174 votes. Across the state, approximately 18% of all ballots, in counties are across the state, have been recounted. As Nate Silver points out, if Franken continues to gain at the same rate through the other 82% of ballots, he would squeeze out a tight win. Of course, there is zero guarantee that this will occur.

Compounding the problem is that both campaigns are challenging scores of ballots.

Campaign monitors from both sides had challenged a total of 269 votes statewide, with Coleman observers disputing 146 ballots while the Franken camp challenged 123.

If that pace continues, challenged votes could wind up being a major factor in a race where the margin is down to hundreths of a percentage point. Challenged votes will be set aside until mid-December, when a five-member state Canvassing Board will review them individually.

Indeed, it is looking increasingly likely that the number of challenged ballots will exceed the final victory margin for either Coleman or Franken once the recount is concluded. What does this mean? Simply that the fight for the seat could be decided by the courts.

Here's betting that this one gets really ugly before it is finally settled, God knows when.