Southern Re-realignment: Arkansas

Perhaps in no state is the re-realignment picture as bright as it is in Arkansas. That might be because Arkansas never completely aligned strongly with the Republican Party after the 1960s, the 1980s, or even after the congressional Republican Revolution of 1994. Both of Arkansas' U.S. Senate seats are held by fairly young and popular incumbents: Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, the son of David Pryor, the former Arkansas Senator. Lincoln and Pryor appear to have a lock on their seats for as long as they would like; indeed, Pryor, who won his first term in 2002, is facing no Republican opponent this year -- indicative of his own popularity in the state (not to mention, of course, the weakness of the GOP this year in its recruitment efforts). The political picture across the state is equally encouraging. Mike Beebe took back the governorship for Democrats in 2006 after years of being out of power, and is exceedingly productive right now. Safe incumbents hold three of the state's four congressional seats, as well as both houses of the state legislature.

Granted that the state is not competitive in presidential elections -- while Bill Clinton won the state both times for obvious reasons, McCain will win it easily and it is one of the very few states where Obama has not opened an office -- that is still pretty fine considering the Democrats' dominance at all other levels in the state. Winning the state's six electoral votes would be nice, but the rural blue collar electorate in Arkansas simply does not gibe well with Senator Obama. Still, the state is much closer in national races where a candidate like Bill Clinton is nominated (from Arkansas or not). But under our re-realignment model, Arkansas is way ahead of the curve, as it uniquely never re-aligned to nearly the same extent as the rest of its Southern brethren. If anything, Democrats must play defense in order to preserve and maintain their advantage in the state.

Outlook

Assuming First District (D+1) Rep. Marion Berry (66 years old), Second District (R+0) Rep. Vic Snyder (61), and Fourth District (D+0) Rep. Mike Ross (47) do not retire any time soon, all three seats will remain in Democratic hands for the long haul (though, it is likely Democrats would be well-positioned to hold the seats if and when they eventually do retire). Ditto Senators Lincoln (47) and Pryor (45), both of whom appear poised to stay in the Senate for a while. With Governor Beebe's popularity high right now, he is a good bet to win another term in 2010 as well. Finally, the state legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, with the Assembly at 75-25 and the Senate at 27-8, so neither will be switching hands any time soon.

All in all, Democrats may be enjoying their political best case scenario in Arkansas at present. In no other Southern state is the electoral picture so bright.