Smart Move

I have to give credit where credit is due, and the Saxby Chambliss campaign and the GOP deserve credit for a shrewd move. Chambliss, who finished at just under 50% last week in re-election campaign for Senate, is headed to a December 2 runoff with Democrat Jim Martin.

We speculated on a runoff and who would be favored already. I think that because this contest will not officially decide if the Democrats get to 60 votes in the Senate (at least not yet, with the Alaska and Minnesota races still unresolved), Martin is in a better position. Still, he faces an uphill climb. We wondered earlier on the impact of Barack Obama, and how involved, if at all, he would get in this contest. Clearly, he would be helpful to Martin who needs both money and high black turnout to have any chance of toppling Chambliss. Here's what I said about this on October 30:

The largest issue here is Obama himself, and whether he and his handlers would want to get very involved in the race. Naturally, if Obama were to jump into the contest in some way and help get Martin elected, he would get another vote for his caucus in the Senate, no small matter. However, there are clear perils as well. If Obama were to get involved and Martin went on to lose, and it would be a little black mark on Obama, and it would hurt his credibility and electoral cache some even before he takes office. His advisers might want to avoid that scenario.

Furthermore, as President, Obama would have to place himself above politics. I know that coming off a presidential contest where he has been campaigning nonstop for over a year this suggestion seems silly, but a President is more a statesman and a leader than a politician, and this is a framework that he would have to consider. This would thus limit Obama's level of participation in the runoff. In other words, you would not see Obama down in Georgia 10 times (and also because he will be busy transitioning into the federal government, no tiny matter).

I think that this is all still true, if not more so. Obama is getting prepared to govern, and wading into this race in any way is a difficult proposition.

Well, the ability for him to pitch in for Martin was made more difficult when the Chambliss campaign was able to enlist John McCain to campaign for him. This decision may single-handedly lead Obama to not do much for Martin.

Why was this decision smart? Look, even in Georgia today, getting John McCain to campaign for you is not that big a deal. McCain is a loser, and even though he won Georgia, I do not see him being any kind of big draw or factor in inspiring heavy GOP turnout. Instead, this decision was smart because it boxes Obama in: if he wanted to do anything for Martin, and perhaps even make an appearance for him, the runoff could turn into a proxy war/rematch between Obama and McCain, one that Obama would have a tougher time winning. If Martin wins, that would be great, but a loss could be used to diminish Obama before he takes office.

Personally, if I was advising Obama I would tell him to campaign for Martin and try to quietly raise money for him. The chances of Martin ultimately losing are greater than not, but so what if he loses? Maybe you get one day where you hear stories of how Obama-Martin lost to McCain-Chambliss in Georgia, but that's it. And it is not like the national networks are going to be leading with the results of the runoff on December 3. The story will have very minimal impact on the public after the fact. I think a win the state would be huge for Senate Democrats, and Obama could do a great deal with very minimal. Still, I imagine Team Obama was already very cautious about the contest, and probably even more so now. I say it is no better than 50-50 that he does anything substantive for Martin in the way of a tv ad, and certainly not a public appearance.

If it can keep Obama out, this was a subtle, but nonetheless shrewd move by Chambliss.