A (Conservative) Star Is Born

It would be hard to argue that the Republican National Convention was not entirely surreal. Forget the very high TV ratings and media coverage, and look simply at Sarah Palin's reception at the convention, and by Republicans generally. It was nothing short of remarkable. Clearly, coming out of this week, Palin has become far and away not only the bigger star on the presidential ticket where she is #2, but among Republicans nationally. This is an astonishing thing when you remember that Palin just burst onto the national scene two weeks ago!

Republicans are in love

I think love is the right word for what's going on, as in the Republicans are completely and totally head over heels in love with Sarah Palin. It is not hard to see why. She is attractive, telegenic and plain-spoken, but she comes with all of the right strong conservative views on the issues that matter most to the GOP base. Therefore, they get their own rock star leader to counter Barack Obama, but without having to sacrifice their principles. This was always the problem with someone like Rudy Giuliani, for example, who Republicans liked and respected, but could never fully accept because his liberalism on abortion and other social issues; though, clearly, Palin is a far more energizing presence to Republicans, now and even compared with Rudy circa 2004.

The fierce response to Palin proffered by Democrats, and the intense scrutiny conducted by the media on the unknown Palin has demonstrated two things about the Republicans. First, the reactions have galvanized them, as the liberal and media establishments have long represented two of the base's most hated enemies, and has merely led Republicans to dig in deeper in their unequivocal support of the Alaska Governor.

Second, the GOP reaction to all of the negative stories regarding Palin that Team McCain did not fully unearth in its shoddy vetting process -- the baby, Troopergate, Palin's possible relations with her husband's former business partner, Palin's voracious support for earmarks and the Bridge to Nowhere in 2006, her church's support of Jews for Church, et al. -- has shown just how in love the base is with Palin.

Have you ever had a friend who likes a girl, but you and your buddies think is all wrong for one reason or another ,and tell your smitten friend only to have him lash out? That is precisely what we're seeing here, albeit politically, and by parties that do not want the Republicans to turn out alright (i.e. Democrats). The Republicans love this woman, and they do not care one iota what other people think, however logical the stated objections.

Win or lose, Palin's future looks be bright

Given the amazing response to Palin by Republicans, win or lose this November, Palin will be the biggest winner of all for the party. If McCain goes on to win, whether he serves one term or two, Palin will obviously be next in line for the Republican nomination for President in 2012 or 2016 in lieu of her being Vice President. In fact, she might be better served having McCain serve until 2016, giving her ample time to bolster her credentials, learn on the job, and have a chance to run when she will be just 52 years old.

If McCain loses, particularly if he falls by five or more percent, Republican losses will be brutal at the Senate and House levels. It will be very ugly for the GOP. Except for Sarah Palin. For some time, I have felt that if McCain were to lose, none other than Willard Mitt Romney would be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President in 2012. It has been obvious that he wants it, and he has been doing his part to be a good solider in backing McCain, making appearances across the country for various Republicans, and no doubt doing his best to bolster and solidify his fairly-new conservative credentials. After viewing the reception Palin has gotten at the convention and from the key and most influential conservative leaders in this country, I no longer feel this way.

From Mitt to Sarah

Palin has changed everything. While I may be acting very reactionary here -- heck, that isn't new: read my now-partially-ridiculous posts which came immediately after Palin was picked -- I think Palin would be the absolute top dog in the 2012 Republican field. Even though a loss would be disheartening for McCain, Palin would have to still be ecstatic, as in the span of a couple of months, the Arizona Senator plucked her from obscurity and made her the biggest star in the Grand Old Party.

Palin would go back to Juneau and serve until 2010. She would almost certainly run for another term and win. After all, Alaska is still a conservative state, and even though Palin has come under heavy fire so far from the ravenous national press (and this treatment will likely continue through the election), I do not foresee her losing much support at home as a result; in fact, I see the negative coverage actually galvanizing people to her side in the Last Frontier. Already, we are beginning to see this. The reasons for this are elementary: Palin is one of Alaska's own, and she is, even now, the most prominent Alaskan to make it nationally in the state's young history. Indeed, she is more well known now, than powerful Senator Ted Stevens is after 40 years in the U.S. Senate. Palin will have a place with Alaskans forever now, basically no matter what the press of those "lower 48ers" might judge.

Now, all of this could go up in smoke fast if something really bad about Palin comes out and sticks. If the rumors of her romantic involvement with her husband's former business partner were to come out as true, that could seriously damage her standing. But the point is that while the GOP base and Alaskans will likely stand by Palin up to and including if she robbed a liquor store (it's an absurd hypothetical, I know), a very damaging revelation could badly hurt her future national standing. Until that happens, however, the angriest man in America right now has to be Mitt Romney, whose many months of cultivating conservative support and building his Republican credentials have very likely been erased in a couple of weeks by a pretty former small-town Alaska mayor.

Sure, Mitt could challenge her. Ditto Bobby Jindal, who will likely just finished his second term as governor of Louisiana come 2012. Both could put up stout campaigns and cases for why they are the best choice for the Republicans. Specifically, Jindal would likely be more qualified than Palin, who would still be coming from Alaska. Nevertheless, at this moment Palin would easily have the star power to outlast either. Republican emotion is implaccably with her.

Palin's future in the GOP as its figurehead

This is another matter, and one that is very interesting. In our next post we will look at the implications of making Palin the new titular head of the Republican Party going forward (assuming a McCain loss in November). On the one hand, having a telegenic, unique figure leading the GOP may well bolster what has been a moribund party over the last few years, but at the same time her ultra-conservative views may well end up turning off moderate voters, therefore limiting her ability to become a transcendent political figure in the mold of Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton. We will take a closer look at this question.