The Senate Picture

If you have been perusing our site here for a while, you have probably noted that I do not spend much time analyzing specific races for the purpose of making predictions. This isn't because I do not like looking at individual races and making picks; quite the contrary: I love the "art" (probably more like the complete guess work) of political prediction. Rather, because you can find smart, as well as baseless political predictions on House and Senate races just about anywhere on the web today, we try to stay away from that area. Still, today I wanted to make a post on the Senate map as we approach the end of September, just over a month before the elections. I think it is worthwhile to look at the Senate races because it is becoming clear that Democrats could make incredible gains in the upper chamber.


While it has been clear for some time that Democrats would add to their tenuous majority, few could have forecast that things would look as good as they do for the Blue Team today, just over six weeks until the election. Impressively, Democrats appear ahead, tied, or slightly behind in nine races for seats currently held by Republicans. Let's briefly look at them, and what this all means.

--Virginia and New Mexico look to be almost sure pick-ups for Democrats, and have been for some time. This is because the longtime (and unbeatable) incumbents retired, and Democrats were able to recruit arguably the two best possible nominees for the seats in Mark Warner and Tom Udal (though, to be fair, Gov. Bill Richardson would have been an even stronger nominee than Udall in all likelihood), while the Republicans ended up running two mediocre challengers.

--New Hampshire is step below Virginia and New Mexico, but it remains highly likely to flip. Sitting Senator Jonh Sununu is the most threatened incumbent running for re-election, kind of this cycle's Rick Santorum, as he has been down in just about every poll, and often by big margins. In a state that is trending Democratic, this seat looks like it too will switch sides.

--Colorado is obviously a bit more conservative than New Hampshire, but the Democratic nominee, Rep. Mark Udall, is well known in the state and has been ahead in just about every poll released, albeit by a smaller margin than Dem leads in NH. This looks like another pick-up, but it should be seen as leaning Democratic right now.

That makes four seats that have been leaning or likely to turn blue for some time. By themselves, four pick-ups would be a good haul, to be sure, but there are five more races that are right now on the precipice of turning.

--North Carolina is a race that has surprised me. I never felt that Sen. Elizabeth Dole would lose, given her universal name recognition in the state and her opponent's lack of a statewide profile. Yet, state Sen. Kay Hagan has hung tough, fundraised well, and has released some sharp, hard-hitting commercials that have clearly taken a toll on the incumbent. Polls over the last couple of weeks have shown the race tied or have given Hagan a narrow lead. To my mind, this is pretty astonishing. I don't think Dole will fall in the end, but right now the race is undoubtedly a toss-up.

--Oregon has been a frustrating contest for Democrats. While there has never been any doubt that Sen. Gordon Smith can be beaten in fairly blue Oregon, Chuck Schumer and DSCC suffered probably their worst string of recruiting set-backs when their top four choices for the Democratic nomination -- former Gov. John Kitzhaber, and Reps. Peter DeFazio, David Wu, and Earl Blumenauer -- all said no. While the eventual nominee, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley isn't all bad, he is not a great nominee, and he has never really hit his stride. Until apparently now. The two latest polls show Smith with just a one-point lead. More importantly, Smith's favorabilty scores are in the toilet. Should Obama run up a big win here, Smith could find himself ousted from the Senate.

--Similarly, after being down all summer, Al Franken now looks to be tied with Sen. Norm Coleman. Like Smith, Coleman is a skilled and shrewd incumbent facing a weak challenger. But also like Smith, he finds himself in a fairly blue state, and one that could go to Obama by a strong margin (though, recent polls here have the presidential contest close), therefore endangering his own future. Franken's rise in the polls is not so shocking, and I do think he could pull off a win, but it is still impressive that he has been able to claw his way back into this thing with all the negative press he's gotten.

--Readers of this blog know the deal with Ted Stevens and Alaska, so we won't rehash everything yet again. Needless to say that right now, Mark Begich probably has a small to decent single-digit lead over Stevens. Still, his chances will be almost entirely dependent on Stevens himself, or more precisely, what happens in Stevens' trial which begins tomorrow. If Uncle Ted is convicted before November, I don't see how he can be re-elected, even in Alaska. But if is acquitted of all charges, or if the jury deadlocks, all bets are off, and I would bet that he improbably gets re-elected by his loving electorate. Only time will tell here, but I to agree with the thinking that 12 men and women on the federal District of Columbia jury panel will likely determine the winner of this race.

--Finally, we also all know about Mississippi. Right now if the latest R2K poll is even close to accurate, Musgrove is down, but with many more black voters than white voters undecided. If Musgrove can: (1) hold onto the nearly one-quarter of whites he has; (2) end up with around 91 percent of the black vote; and (3) get black turnout of 39 percent or more, he will score an incredible upset. I keep saying it, but watch this race on election night. A win is absolutely not out of the question, though it will be tough.

In total, that makes nine races Democrats can win. In a political era where incumbents are nearly unbeatable because of the money they can raise and the earmarks and accomplishments they can rack up in six years, it is pretty amazing that Democrats are in such a good position.

They remain poised to win at least four seats, and with the right breaks, can easily double that number. While I am not postulating that they will get to that magic 60-vote threshold, I am merely trying to point out the great position the party is in at this moment, and the awful position Republicans find themselves in. If Senator Obama can score a big national victory, look for many of these close or tied races to turn bigtime for the Democrats.