R2K/Daily Kos Tracking: McCain's Bounce Over?

The last three R2K/Daily Kos presidential tracking polls released Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday show increasing evidence that John McCain's Palin/convention bounce is over, and that Senator Obama may be regaining an important national advantage. As we will highlight, Senator Obama has seemed to have made at least some gains across the spectrum.

Tuesday's poll gives Obama a 48-to-44 lead. It was 48-45 on Monday, and 47-to-45 on Sunday. While the change is small, it is perceptible particularly as it was tied on Saturday.

The cross-tabs provide interesting evidence for this change, as it appears that McCain is steadily dropping among many key groups where he had made impressive, albeit small gains earlier. Among men, McCain led 49-42 Sunday, 49-43 Monday, and 48-43 Tuesday. So, McCain has gone from +7 to +5 over the three days. Similarly, for women, the splits were 52-42/53-42/53-41 -- all in favor of the Democrat, increasing Obama's margin from +10 to +12.

Party voting is fairly unchanged. GOP voters were 91-6 on every single day, further showing that identified Republicans are now hardened in their support of McCain and unlikely to change. Among Democrats, Obama's splits were 83-13/84-13/84-12, showing a tiny bit of gain, but nothing huge so far.

Most salient is the independent vote, where McCain had been building a big lead last time we checked. Here too, Obama has made gains: Monday 47-42, Tuesday 47-43, Tuesday 46-43. This is McCain's key bloc. He will need to better solidify his votes here. With four percent undecided, double that of the GOP number and four times the Dem number, the indie vote is a bit more malleable, and clearly Obama is making gains here.

For the most part, the white and black votes remain unchanged, though McCain's advantage with whites seems to mirror the other groups above, and his lead now stands at +19 Tuesday, after being +20 Monday, and +21 Sunday.

One area of interest is the Latino vote. We noted last week that Obama's near 40-point lead among this key group dropped suddenly. While Obama has not fully regained his inital advantage with the Hispanic electorate, he is doing better. The splits: 65-32/66-32/67-30. Thus, Obama's advantage has gone from +33 to +37 in three days -- a good move. Again, it will be very interesting to see if this holds, or the lead goes back to the small-to-mid 30s. Obama will need to win the Hispanic vote very decisively.

Obama also seems to have made gains basically across the age spectrum. Among those 18-29, Obama led with the splits at 62-31/63-31/63-30 -- a net gain of two points. Similarly, among the key 30-44 demographic, what was a 49-43 McCain lead Sunday, gave way to 49-44 Monday, and 47-44 Tuesday. McCain led this group by seven points on Saturday. Among those 45-to-49 years old, the numbers have not moved as much: 47-45/48-45/48-45 all for Obama. Finally, voters 60 and over seem more entrenched, and have remained at 54-39 for McCain.

Finally, the regional numbers show some encouraging trends for Obama. What was a strong hold on the Northeast got a bit stronger: 56-37/58-36/58-35, a net gain of a couple points. McCain's Southern base has totally held, and remained at 55-37 over all three days.

The other two regions have perhaps the best news for Democrats. With Obama's lead in the Midwest down to three points late last week, he has put some space between him and McCain again in what is likely the nation's most pivotal region. He led 49-43 Sunday (beginning his move over 49-46 Saturday), 51-43 Monday, and 51-42 Tuesday -- a move of +3 over three days, and +6 since Saturday. In the West, Obama has remained surprisingly stable, up to a 50-42 lead from 50-44 Saturday and 50-43 Sunday.

Finally, the favorable/unfavorable numbers give us some final info to chew on.

McCain: 53-44 SUN/51-45 MON/49-45 WED; -7 points (from +9 to +4)

Obama: 54-39/54-38/54-37; +2 points (from +15 to +17)

Biden: 49-33/48-32/49-32; +1 point (+16 to +17)

Palin: 47-42/47-43/45-44; -4 points (+5 to +1)

It is not hard to pick up the trends here. While Obama and Biden's favorable ratings have remained relatively stable, McCain's have dropped a decent amount, putting him under 50 percent, while Palin's have plummeted; indeed, she stood at 52-35 on 9/11, 51-37 on 9/12, and 49-40 on 9/13 -- a total move from +17 to +1 in less than a week.

Even if you disagree with the exact numbers, the trendlines are unmistakable: the negative stories and Democratic attacks on McCain have been working, at least temporarily, and explain why their support has dropped slightly across the country. In terms of Palin, she has gone from a darling to a deeply polarizing figure in short order. Whether this will be lasting is up in the air, but her numbers are sinking, and if they continue, she will have a net negative rating tomorrow for the first time.

And lest you question this particular poll, Hotline's own poll has Palin's net favorable rating dropping a big 13 points between 9/8 and 9/16 -- from +24 to +11 points.

Interestingly, Hotline also gives Obama a four-point, 46-42 national lead over McCain today. Gallup and Rasmussen both have McCain up one point in their tracking polls, though without their data. As always, let me explain that I am using the R2K/D-Kos polling because they release their data. If I had access to the cross-tabs of the other polls, believe me I would go through them too.

Needless to say, however, Obama should be very pleased with the trendlines. While we can quibble on the numbers, he is making slow and steady gains the key groups: indies, women, Midwesterners, and voters aged 30-to-44. While the state-by-state polling over the last week has not been kind to Obama, if this data is accurate, I believe it will begin to show in a big way in the state polls as well.