Palin = A Return of the Culture Wars?

The Palin nomination may ultimately have its largest impact in a way that hasn't really been explored fully by the media. It's funny because McCain has tried very hard from the start of this election to branch out beyond the GOP base that delivered GWB his bare majority in 2004, and given his "maverick" reputation of independence from the Party on some selection issues (campaign finance, Gang of 14), he was probably the only national Republican who could reasonably accomplish this kind of outreach.

Picking Palin was undoubtedly a bold and risky maneuver made to breath some life into what was a largely stagnant campaign, but clearly, McCain made this pick to reach out to women, moderates, and some independents to expand his base of support and eat into voters that might have been leaning towards voting Democratic this year. Sure, given Palin's rock star conservatism, McCain and his inner circle were delighted to also find a pick that would appeal to the base, but I really believe that this was not McCain's number one aim in tapping Palin, it was merely a very important check in Palin's favor.

However, ironically the Palin pick may end up completely backfiring on McCain in terms of his overall campaign outreach strategy. Indeed, because Palin is so incredibly unqualified and so much of an extremist, we are beginning to see Palin pushing the national debate in a direction many Republicans way welcome, but one which may end up costing McCain big time. As more and more of Palin's extremist positions and ties come to light, this race may move closer and closer to another referendum on social issues. Already we are seeing signs of this, as Republicans have exploded against the "liberal media" for its coverage of Palin. We all know that running elections on social wedge issues instead of the economy or other more important areas is the calling card of the modern Republican Party, and it was precisely this strategy that Bush and Rove pushed to perfection twice in winning 48 and 51 percent.

Given the economy and the war, this may be a very welcome development to many Republicans, particularly Evangelicals -- and if the convention is any evidence, it is -- but this year, against stouter opposition in Obama than they faced in Kerry, it likely won't work, and may end up turning off the very same moderates McCain had hoped to win before and right after he tapped Palin -- moderates who may still remember George Bush's slogans (i.e. "uniter not a divider" and "compassionate conservative"). Such an approach may thus marginalize not just Palin's appeal, but McCain's as well. Go figure.