Poor Mark Begich

Another Alaska post. I'm sorry, but I wanted to add some brief words on the Alaska Senate race which many prognosticators have been saying weighs heavily to the Democrats. The race still leans towards flipping to the Blue Team, but it may be determined by factors simply out of Democrats' control.

Ted Stevens' and his high-priced lawyers from Williams and Connolly have been pushing hard to ensure that his trial concludes before the November 4 election. He is obviously gambling that he will receive a full acquittal, and to be perfectly honest, he may have no other option. Even with his legendary status in the Last Frontier, it is a stretch for anyone to assume -- even an arrogant SOB like Stevens (his words, not mine) -- that he can overcome a federal indictment over his head to win an election. Stevens is pursuing his best path given that his indictment came so close to November.

As we've discussed, a Stevens conviction before the election on any of the charges will likely doom Uncle Ted. In my "professional" opinion, I find it impossible to see a freshly-convicted felon winning re-election.

However, what if Stevens is acquitted of all charges? While he is facing a District of Columbia jury, he does have the best criminal defense attorney in Washington (Brendon Sullivan, he of "potted plant" fame in his defense of Col. Oliver North). Furthermore, he is not facing bribery charges, but more technical charges relating to filing false financial statements in his capacity as a United States Senator. The charges are not as salacious, and because of their nature, they may be very tough to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. In other words, an acquittal is not outside the realm of possibility.

What this all means, at least to me, is that if Stevens somehow gets a full acquittal sometime in October, Mark Begich may be in big trouble. With Sarah Palin on the top of the ballot above Stevens, an October acquittal combined with a likely statewide landslide for McCain-Palin could let Stevens ride a high wave into re-election.

This has to be causing the Begich campaign some considerable heartbury. Indeed, for all of his hard work, strong fundraising, high approval ratings across Alaska, and the very good campaign up to this point minus any big mistakes, it may all be irrelevant if Stevens gets his full acquittal. This is why we use the title "Poor Mark Begich," because the results of the election may be hugely determined by two factors completely outside of his control: a Stevens acquittal, and John McCain's shocking selection of Governor Palin. The most recent poll of the race showing Begich up only three points, after leading by double digits a few weeks ago, shows Palin's pull. Certainly, this poll may well be an outlier, but it is difficult to argue that Palin is not giving Stevens coattails, particularly when Rep. Don Young receives no such help (according to the poll) for reasons we delineated yesterday.

Now, this does not mean that Begich and the DSCC should or will hang up their boots and watch and wait? Of course not. They should continue what they are doing, the DSCC should not hesitate to dump huge money into the Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau markets hitting voters over the head with Stevens' troubles over and over and then over again, and they should simply hope for the best with regards to Stevens' trial. There is nothing else they can do.

Still, it is wrong to say that Alaska is now a likely Democratic pick-up. Maybe the Ivan Moore poll is inaccurate, or things can change in a hurry if Palin's stock plummets, or Stevens' trial gets off to a rocky start for the Senator (of which there is a strong possibility of happening, given that the Government has announced it wishes to introduce into evidence over 100 taped phone conversations between Stevens and lobbyists).

But until any of those events happen, this race may be determined by factors outside of the control of Begich and the Democrats. For this reason, I feel a little bad for Mark Begich, whose chances of going to Washington may be out of his control. This is not that different from Tony Knowles, whose 2004 Senate run we discussed a couple months back. Knowles, if you remember, ran a strong race but lost 49-46 in large part because John Kerry was trounced on the top of the ballot. If Democrats do lose this race, they may never win an Alaska Senate seat, given that Lisa Murkowski is not that old.

Succeeding in politics has a lot to do with hard and smart work, but luck and good timing both often play a decisive role. Them's the breaks. We will have to wait and see what happens.