Is the Veep Debate a Lose-Lose for Democrats?

I keep fretting about the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. The more I think about it, the more I am certain that unless Palin makes a huge mistake -- which is of course not impossible given her complete lack of qualifications to be veep, plus a litany of other issues -- it will be a loss for Democrats. Granted, in the scheme of things, the veep debate means very, very little. However, what we do on blogs, particularly on this blog, is write, discuss, argue, and worry about things that really do not or will not matter in the end. It's what we do. However, given the unique dynamics of the Palin pick, this year's single vice presidential debate may end up mattering.

I would imagine that most people think this whole discussion is nuts. I would not fault you for thinking that. After all, on first glance, the match-up of Biden-Palin is the equivalent of the 1998 Yankees against the first-year Devil Rays, Sonny Liston vs. Floyd Patterson, Michael Phelps facing a competitor from Paraguay. For all of Biden's personal and political warts, he has been a distinguished government servant for decades, and his knowledge of issues and institutions across the board far surpasses Palin's 1.5 years as governor of Alaska and her time as mayor of Wasilla, then-population 5,000. Even a Republican would have to admit that the experience chasm between them is wider than the Grand Canyon. By all reason and logic, in a fair fight, Biden should win easily. Yet, it is for this very reason that I think Biden, and by extension, Obama-Biden may be in a no-win situation.

Consider it this way. What would qualify as a Palin "win," or even a good showing by the governor? Answer: any performance where she does not make a huge mistake. The Republicans are experts at lowering expectations so low to the point that so long as one of their candidates does not say that Norway is in South America, they are praised. This happened in 2000 when expectations for George W. Bush were so low -- and set that way by the Bush campaign itself -- that he was seen as victorious (admittedly, also in part because of Al Gore's petulence, no doubt).

The science of lowered expectations was also on nice display just last week at the GOP convention with Palin's own speech. I understand I may be biased, but in complete honesty, I do not know what the big deal was. She read a partisan speech off the teleprompter. Wow. It was not a legendary speech of epic proportions, but yet it was portrayed that way. Why? Because expectations were so low. The only way the speech could have been reported by the media as anything less than a smashing hit is if Palin said something wrong or stupid -- almost impossible given that the speech was written word-for-word by a cautious McCain team; all she had to do was read what was put in front of her -- or somehow, magically, the spellbound and smitten GOP audience in the St. Paul arena did not clap for Palin for every word. Fat chance. Had Palin proclaimed "I had Farina for breakfast this morning," assuredly, she would have gotten a two-minute ovation. Her speech was only a success because there were no real expectations.

I fully expect the same thing to happen in the veep debate. Even if Palin is made more available to the media in the coming weeks -- not a given considering her inexperience and present ignorance of nearly every single key issue of the day -- expectations will be set deliberately around the bottom of the Mariana Trench by both the media and Team McCain. Therefore, so long as she does not make a mistake, she will be proclaimed a winner, if not the winner.

This is to say nothing of Joe Biden. For all of his experience and competence -- the very assets Palin clearly lacks -- he cannot make a mistake. He can't appear to be bullying or demeaning Palin. And he too cannot make a misstatement or allow Palin to hit him with a zinger. And Joe Biden is known for sometimes saying silly or ridiculous things, as all political watchers know. If any of these happens, he is in trouble in the debate.

Maybe this is too pessimistic an outlook, but given Sarah Palin's gross lack of any qualifications and the GOP's modus operandi in handling its candidates with such deficiences (see Bush, George W.), I view the veep debate as a lose-lose proposition for Democrats unless Palin messes up.