A Receding Tide?

Lost in the all the coverage of the presidential race is the fight for the House. Throughout the entire year, Democrats have been heavily favored to win a large number of new seats in the House, but Palin's selection may have completely changed that, turning things around in much the same way that she has effected the presidential contest.

As this RCP link shows, for the entire year, Democrats have enjoyed a huge advantage in its quest to expand the congressional majorities they gained in the 2006 midterm elections. As late as a few weeks ago, the Dems had a solid double digit lead on the generic ballot in just about every single poll.

However, one poll released since the Palin pick shows that things may not be as rosy for Democrats anymore. The USA Today/Gallup poll conducted from September 5 to September 7 found the following generic ballot among likely voters as follows:

Republican congressional candidate 50%
Democratic congressional candidate 45%

Among registered voters, Dems led 48-45, and among national adults, Dems held a slightly wider 48-44 lead. In the last USA Today/Gallup poll conducted just two weeks earlier, Democrats had held a 51-42 edge among likely voters (and it was 52-42 in June).

If correct, these results are nothing short of disastrous for Democrats. It is a turnaround of 14 points in the span two weeks. Now, there are a couple of caveats. First, the Gallup poll does tend to lean Republican. Indeed, this same poll gave John McCain a ten point national lead over Barack Obama, a wide margin not reflected in any other national polls released this week.

Second, even if these findings are accurate, the poll clearly came at the absolute height of McCain's convention bounce; in other words, it is a snapshot of the best time of the year for Republicans. So, this lead is very likely to dissipate, and in fact it already has in the presidential contest, as most national polls are now showing a tie.

Third, the two other generic congressional ballot polls released since Palin was tapped still show Democrats with a lead. Democracy Corps., a Democratic group, found Dems leading 50-45 (a mid-June poll from the group gave Democrats a 50-42 split). Similarly, a Hotline/FD poll conducted over the same days as the USA Today/Gallup poll found Democrats ahead 42-33 on the generic congressional ballot.

The D-Corps and Hotline polls could be more accurate than the Gallup, and in fact, I think that's likely. Given Gallup's slight GOP-lean, I find it hard to believe that Palin alone flipped 14 points so dramatically in a generic ballot poll that had been so stable all year.

Still, that's beside the more important broader point. Whether or not Gallup is right, there is clearly the fear for Democrats that not only could Palin impact the race at the top of the ballot, but she could also pump up down-ballot Republicans, and block Democrats from winning a sweep of House races that once seemed a given.

Right now, there are potentially up to 75 House races which could be competitive, and well over half of those could flip hands given the right circumstances. If Gallup is showing a correct trend, and the Democrats' double digit advantage on the congressional ballot were to melt away and stay gone, it could be devastating to potential Blue Team gains.

Judging by national polls, a huge portion of McCain's bounce is coming from Southerners who flipped from undecided to supporting McCain since the GOP convention. Clearly then, Palin could easily have the greatest impact on races like AL-02/05, KY-02, LA-04/06/07, and others where Democrats have recruited fielded candidates in very red districts. Indeed, the first person I thought of when I considered Palin's impact on red states was Democrat Bobby Bright in AL-02, the Montgomery mayor and a formidable candidate. And sure enough, his opponent this week became the first congressional candidate across the nation who has put up a commercial tying his candidacy to Palin. Not a good sign.

At best then, it looks like Palin could hurt Democrats in places where Republicans are now energized. At worst, the Palin wave could swallow up and sap Democratic strength across the country. This could have a profound impact on quality Democratic nominees in red districts like in C0-04, NM-01/02, NV-02/03, and WY-AL.

In terms of the Senate, the issue of Palin's impact is probably less pronounced. The reason is that these races tend to be more defined by now, and thus not as volatile. Sure, Palin is going to hurt Ronnie Musgrove's already tough chances in Mississippi, and Kay Hagan (who is running even with or ahead Elizabeth Dole) in North Carolina, but in states like Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Colorado, Palin's impact will likely not be as great. Ditto Minnesota and Oregon, which are very blue states. Finally, as we noted a couple of days ago, while Palin is going to be helpful to Ted Stevens, if he is convicted in federal court, he is done no matter what, in my mind.

Furthermore, with entrenched quality Democratic nominees already having built good organizations and solid leads for themselves, it might be tougher to dislodge them simply by having McCain-Palin the ballot. Of course, in a race that might be decided by a couple of points (see MS/NC-SEN), this might not be the case. Still, the issue of the impact on generic congressional ballot numbers is much more salient in House races.

While it is going to continue to fall completely under the radar, the findings of the generic ballot polls will be of vital importance in illustrating whether John McCain's Palin gambit will cost what once seemed as certain huge Democratic gains in Congress. You can rest assured Rep. Chris Van Hollen (head of the DCCC) is not sleeping and eating as easily as these polls roll hot of the printer.