Another Sign of a Coming Tidal Wave?

In the past few weeks we've touched on the possibility that we could seen an immense electoral tidal wave hit in races across the country. While there had been some question of whether Democratic gains would be less than expected given the narrowing we witnessed a few weeks back in several generic congressional poll ballots, the numbers have widened again. Furthermore, at this moment, it is fair to say that Democrats are ahead or tied in the races for seven Senate seats currently held by Republicans (VA/NM/CO/NH/AK/OR/NC), and slightly behind in two more (MN/MS).

Well, today we got evidence that we may able to add one close race to the mix, a contest which really has no business being close this or any other year. Earlier in the week, Survey USA released a poll showing Kentucky Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leading his opponent by just three points. While S-USA is seen as one of the best in the polling business, I was not alone in viewing the result very skeptically. S-USA will often spit out crazy outliers like that, and I felt the poll was simply one of those times.

Yes, there have been some polls taken in this race throughout the cycle showing a closer contest, but I have never believed McConnell could be threatened. First, he has a boatload of money, and while his opponent is wealthy, it is not clear he has the guts to try to equal McConnell's spending. Second, McConnell does not always have the best numbers in his contests, and polling can look deceivingly close in his races before bursting open at the end given Kentucky's red electoral shade.

All of that conventional wisdom might go out the window, at least for now, as a Mason-Dixon poll has found that McConnell now leads by one point: 45-to-44. This confirms that at this moment, McConnell is shockingly close with his opponent.

What can we glean from this? First, McConnell is clearly being hurt by being his position as the Senate leader of the unpopular GOP. While the poll finds that his opponent is not terribly well-liked, people are angry and clearly in an anti-incumbent mind-set.

Second, despite the fact that Barack Obama is going to get creamed in the state, the closeness indicates that many Kentucky voters may be willing to vote for John McCain at the top of the ballot, and then cast a vote for the Democrat in the Senate race.

Third, and perhaps most important, is that the economy is having a big impact in voters' personal calculuses right now. It is head-and-shoulders the top issue, and McConnell is likely bearing some brunt of voter anxiety and anger at what is happening in the financial markets. Furthermore, should McConnell ultimately help push through a bipartisan bailout plan -- which, by all indications, he is doing -- he might pay for it on election day, as the bailout remains very unpopular among Americans.

I think that uber political scientist, Larry Sabato, says it best in his quote about the poll in the Louisville Courier-Journal:

“If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders. If this is true, Democrats may win a lot more seats in both the House and the Senate than people are predicting.”

This poll is telling not much for what it says about McConnell than what it says about the national political trends. Make no mistake: if Mitch McConnell, the longtime king of Kentucky politics and the godfather of the state's GOP is in danger, every single close race could go to the Democrats in November. If Mitch loses, you can expect the GOP to lose in Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota, and probably even Mississippi (though, as we know, that race has weird internal dynamics unique to the Magnolia State).

There is no doubt that Democrats would love the chance to knock off McConnell and do to Republicans what they did to the Blue Team in defeating former Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, adding a huge heap of humilation on what was an otherwise brutal election night. Given these results, I would see an uptick in interest here, particularly from the DSCC, whose financial support could be critical in a close contest.

Nevertheless, in the end, regardless of this poll, I would be shocked, floored, stunned, and in more shock if Mitch McConnell were to lose. He still has a fortune in his pocket, and his opponent has lost numerous past runs for office. Plus, overcoming a rough showing for Obama would be tough for any down-ballot Dem.

Still, the closeness of this race validates the expanding generic congressional ballot polls we've been seeing over the last seven to ten days. Democrats are once again looking good, so by extension, races like this will tighten. Republicans should be very concerned about this poll.