Ted Stevens: "Full steam ahead"

Last week after Senator Ted Stevens was indicted by a Federal grand jury, we briefly discussed the aftermath, arguing that whatever would happen would be dictated by what the longtime Senator would do. We conceived three possible options for the ogtanagerian

(1) Resign immediately (or soon) from the Senate;
(2) Stay in the primary, win, and then drop out, thereby allowing the Alaska Republican Party to select his replacement; or
(3) Do nothing and continue running.

It was my belief that while Stevens would want to keep going, the pressure of politics and reality would be too great, and that ultimately he would go with the second option: continuing running, win the primary with the anti-Stevens vote being split among his five mediocre opponents, and then take himself out of the running before the drop-dead date of September 17 to allow the Alaska GOP to pick the best possible replacement to take on Mark Begich.

Ah, how wrong I was, as it is pretty clear that Ted Stevens is going for the third option. Sure, his campaign's proclamations might seem like posturing while they buy time for the Senator to drop out gracefully, but there is no posturing here. After all, how many other people would have even decided to run again after having their house raided by the FBI? It should have been no surprise, therefore, that Stevens is not going anywhere. He intends to keep running full throttle right into the general election.

As we disussed earlier, despite the early predictions from some Alaska pollsters that Stevens was dead in the water in the primary, it was fairly clear to us that Stevens would win his primary. Among his five opponents, none of them is even a B-level candidate. Furthermore, even if Stevens were vulnerable, the anti-incumbent vote would be split, assuring that Stevens would win the necessary plurality to move onto the general contest.

Besides, while Stevens has taken an enormous hit with his indictments, that hit might not be that terrific in a GOP primary dominated by lifelong Stevens' loyalists. Already we are seeing some circling-the-wagons behavior by Alaskans who are standing by Stevens. While this will probably not be enough to save the Senator in November, it will be help him immensely in the August 26 primary. In other words, he is going to have more than enough support to win his primary. Already, one post-indictment poll has shown him crushing his two strongest primary opponents, 59-19-2.

It is worth noting that Stevens has also asked for an expedited trial that will be concluded by October. Presuming that he will be acquitted, Stevens' attorney has stated that he would like the trial over by then so that he can campaign in the last month before the election. Stevens' has also requested a change of venue from Washington, D.C. to Alaska. This is for an obvious reason, and also allow the Senator to get out of Washington and be able to campaign back home. While the judge is unlikely to grant the change of venue request, there is a possibility that the trial could be over before the election. If Stevens were to be acquitted of all charges right before the election, it could completely change the race's dynamic, and perhaps even propel the Senator to a stunning victory. Because this is all speculation at this point, and there is an even better chance that the trial won't be concluded before November, it is an eventuality we should all keep in mind, but not take too seriously until the point where it appears more likely to happen.