Southern Re-realignment: West Virginia

The Mountain State is very interesting politically, and it shares a lot of similarities with Arkansas. Like Arkansas, the state is dominated by the Democratic Party except in presidential elections (and this was a very recent development for West Virginia). However, the long-held Democratic influence in the state may be tenuous, and much more endangered than in Arkansas. With West Virginia becoming a reliable Republican hold in presidential races, the political direction of the state going forward will be heavily dictated by what happens to the state's ailing longtime Senator Robert Byrd, and what subsequently becomes of his seat.

Democratic dominance

Currently, the statistics look pretty one-sided in West Virginia. One of the few Southern states that has voter registration by part, as of the start of 2007, the numbers broke down as 57 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, and 13 percent unaffiliated. The Governor is (or at least was until recently) a popular Democrat. the state legislature is strong Democratic, with the House at 72-28, and the Senate 23-11, both held by Team Blue. With the exception of the Secretary of State, every statewide office is held by a Democrat. Both U.S. Senators are unbeatable Dems, as are two of the state's three House Members.

The one existing chink in the armor is the state's behavior in presidential races. Prior to 2000, the state had voted Republican in national races only three times in three generations. But campaigning heavily in the state after Al Gore ignored it, Bush/Cheney scored a surprise 52-46 upset here, and then upped it to 56-43 four years later. This year's polls show McCain will blow out Obama in West Virginia.

How and why West Virginia became a safe red state in the Electoral College is a great question, and one I have actually been looking to examine in greater detail in its own post. We won't give the topic much introspection here, except needless to say that this fairly recent transformation is at least concerning to Democrats, though not enormously so given the party's dominance over the rest of the state.

The Byrd conundrum

Of greater note is the age issue of West Virginia's 90 year-old senior Senator, Robert C. Byrd. Over the last couple of years, Byrd, who is an icon in West Virginia and was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1952 and to the Senate in 1958, has been in declining health, as he has been hospitalized several times, and as is evidenced by his public appearances where he is looking increasingly frail. There has been internal chatter among Senate Democrats, aides, and insiders that Byrd should be removed from his post as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee as many believe that Byrd can no longer handle or manage the rigors of the important job. While those whispers have died down, it is at the very least an even bet that he will be pushed aside in the next Congress. While Byrd was easily re-elected in 2006 -- in the face of questions about his age -- should he be forced to retire in the middle of his term (highly unlikely, in this author's humble opinion), or if he passed away before 2012, there would be problems for Democrats.

Currently, as we noted, Democrats control nearly every single key office in West Virginia. Governor Joe Manchin has remained hugely popular, and though that popularity has probably waned at least some (if not a lot) due to a recent scandal involving his daughter receiving a graduate degree from the University of West Virginia without fulfilling the requisite credit requirements, he will overwhelmingly win re-election this year. Furthermore, Democrats hold the State House by over forty seats, and have over two-thirds of the State Senate seats.

The heart of the problem is the Second District congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito. Strongly encouraged by the national GOP to challenge the aging Byrd in 2006 (as well as the junior Senator, Jay Rockefeller this year), Capito wisely declined, realizing she would have been crushed by either Senator and lost her House seat to boot. Nevertheless, Capito would easily be the Republicans' best choice for Byrd's open seat and would be a stout opponent. In point of fact, she might be the only Republican who could win statewide right now.

While Manchin would be Democrats' best choice, his current minor problems could complicate things and be an impediment. Additionally, timing is a huge quesiton. Should Byrd be forced to leave the Senate mid-term prior to 2012, Manchin would have to appoint himself, which would certainly be viewed with distaste by some voters, high popularity or not. This does not mean that Manchin would not do that, or would not easily beat Capito in the end, merely that there are complications in the matter.

Other statewide Democratic officials could also be good nominees too, but given Capito's representation of the state's "swing" district" formally held by Democrats (and including the state capital Charleston), Capito could present a huge danger to Democrats not named Manchin. The other two longtime congressmen, Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall could both beat Capito, but it is questionable that either would want to run, given their strong seniority in the lower chamber. Specifically, Rahall chairs the Natural Resources Committee, and is next in line to chair the very powerful Transportation and Infrastructure Committee after 2012 when its current chairman is term-limited.

Outlook

West Virginia may or may not be at a political crossroads. Whatever happens to Byrd's Senate seat will be determinative evidence of whether Bush's wins in the state in 2000 and 2004 show a state aligning towards the GOP on all levels, or just in presidential races like Arkansas.

The fact is that while West Virginia's voters are strongly socially and culturally conservative, the state is sill dominated by the Democratic Party. Governor Manchin will easily win again this November, as will presumably every other statewide Democratic candidate. And while two fo the state's three congressional seats are Republican-leaning: Mollohan's northern First District is R+6 and Capito's Second District is R+5 (and, incidentally, Rahall's seat is D+0, and close too), there is a very good chance that both Members will be succeeded by Democrats when they choose to leave office for no other reason than the state is dominated by the Democratic Party, and therefore the GOP will lack a bench to put up a strong contender when one of the big seats finally opens.

Democrats' best case scenario going forward

For Democrats, the Byrd seat is, at this time, their biggest focus. At best, they would hope that Byrd could recover from his various ailments and become his vigorous old self. But at nearly 91, this is highly unlikely. Consequently, Democrats should hope Byrd is able to hold onto his seat for as long as possible. Of some consolation to Democrats is that Byrd is unlikely to just retire or resign. He has been in Congress for 55 years, and in the Senate since 1959: it is his life, and I cannot imagine him leaving it while he is still sitting upright.

In the meantime, Shelly Capito Moore is Democrats' largest concern. Since wining her seat 48-46 in 2000, she has settled in with strong victory margins since. Democrats were able to recruit a credible state senator to oppose her, but he dropped out suddenly. Currently, Anne Barth, Byrd's former district director is the Democratic nominee. While she is a good challenger, it remains to be seen if she can pick off the incumbent. Time will tell, but if Barth can it, it would save Democrats a lot of trouble and headaches regarding the Byrd seat. Should Capito be ousted this year, the Byrd seat should be safe going forward.

In terms of the other Senate seat, Senator Jay Rockefeller is running again this year, and he will win a fifth term easily. While there is a good chance he will retire in 2014 when he is 77, that is something Democrats can forget about for at least the time being.

West Virginia's likely political scenario

Barring an upset, the congressional delegation will remain 2-1, and Democrats will maintain their stranglehold on statewide offices. Given the (im)balance of the state legislature, Democrats could be posed to dilute the Second District in their favor, something they neglected to do in 2002 when Capito was in her first term.

Again, everything will depend on what Robert Byrd does. Assuming he is still in office next year, look for things to remain as they are up through 2010, with Capito winning a closer-than-usual re-election this November. If she wins big against a credible Byrd-aligned opponent, that could speak well to her electoral strength.

Should the Byrd seat ultimately go red, it could portend bad things for Democratic influence in West Virginia, and demonstrate that Southern realignment may finally be coming in earnest to the Mountain State in the same way that it has impacted the rest of the South over preceding decades. Ultimately, I think that given his frailty, there is a likelihood that this will be his last term. Given Governor Manchin's popularity (unless the WVU scandal really widens), I think he would be the frontrunner for the Senate seat, but Democrats should watch out for Shelly Moore Capito just in case.