Southern Re-realignment: Georgia

Right now, Georgia is one of the Democrats' bleakest states. This is in great part because the state's re-alignment to the Republican Party only really finished in the last couple of years. If you can believe it, in 2002, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, and the state legislature. Just over six years later, all of them are gone, and at this time they are all safely in Republican hands.

What happened? Well, despite the quickness of the state's political transformation, in hindsight the fast electoral flip should not have been at all unexpected given the movement of the greater South over the preceding decades. Yet, while Georgia joined the rest of the South in voting reliably Republican in presidential elections, into the 21st Century it still continued sending Democrats to represent it in the Upper Chamber of Congress.

The sea change came in 2002 when popular Governor Roy Barnes and first term Senator Max Cleland were badly defeated. Barnes was popular, well-funded, and had been touted, legitimately, as a future presidential contender. But Barnes created a firestorm when he removed the Confederate emblem from the state flag, drawing enormous ire from rural voters and white men who turned out in big numbers to vote against Barnes. The flag issue also badly hurt Cleland who lost 53-46.

While he led by over 20 points early in the race, Cleland should have been seen as being in dangerous territory early on. Unlike his fellow Democratic Senator Zell Miller (remember, this is 2002 we are talking about, before Miller went off the deep end), Cleland had amassed a liberal record on social issues, and had only won his first term by 49-48 in 1996. As nasty as the 2002 campaign was, and as odious and repulsive (to Democrats, at least), as his opponent's tactics were, in the end their impact was not as damaging to Cleland as his voting record, the flag issue, and the state and national popularity of President Bush in 2002, as Bush campaigned heavily nationally for congressional candidates including Cleland's opponent, then-Rep. Saxby Chambliss.

Two years later, when nominal Democrat Senator Miller retired, then-Rep. Johnny Isakson easily won the seat over first-term Atlanta congresswoman Denise Majette, after Democrats failed to recruit a good nominee in what was a brutal year for national Democrats (in addition to the Miller seat, Democrats lost Southern seats due to retirements in Florida (Bob Graham), Louisiana (John Breaux), North Carolina (John Edwards), and South Carolina (Fritz Hollings)). As a result, today Georgia has two strongly conservative Senators, not to me a popular GOP governor and entrenched Republican majority in both halves of the state legislature.

The congressional presents both positive and negative aspects for Democrats. First, the positive. With 13 congressional districts, Republicans currently control seven, and Democrats hold six. Three of the Democratic seats -- the Fourth (D+22), the Fifth (D+25), and the Thirteenth (D+10), all in and around Atlanta -- are held by progressive black Members, and they are safely in Democratic hands in perpetuity, and a fourth, the Second District leans slightly Democratic but is unlikely to flip.

The other two -- the Eighth District (R+8) in the center of the state, and the Twelfth Distirct (D+2) in the central-east -- are much closer, and were actually captured by Democrats in 2002 and 2004, respectively. The Twelfth leans ever so slightly to Democrats, but its congressman, John Barrow has won his last two contests 50-50 and 52-48, both over Max Burns, the Member who preceded him in the district. Nevertheless, with Burns not making a go for another rematch, Barrow appears poised to have easier sledding this year, and may have himself a seat for the long haul (or, at least until redistricting in 2011).

Similarly, the Eighth District Rep. Jim Marshall won the seat in 2002 in a close contest, taking 51 percent of the vote. While he won easily in 2004, he faced another former congressman in 2006, Mac Collins (who had lost to Isakson in the 2004 GOP Senate primary), and won by just 51-49. At R+8, this seat is much more red than the Twelfth District and it gave George Bush 61 percent in 2004. Still, with an apparent foothold, Marshall could stay a while himself, and he is perhaps the Democrats' best possibility for the open governorship in 2010, or Isakson's Senate seat in 2010 should the incumbent Senator move on.

The negatives of the Georgia congressional picture are equally compelling. Facing just a 7-6 deficit, Democrats have reached their absolute high-point, as the remaining seven House seats are enormously red: the First District is R+10, the Third R+18, the Sixth R+18, the Seventh R+18, the Ninth R+25, the Tenth R+10, and the Eleventh is R+17. It would thus likely take circumstances even more favorable than those which were present in the MS-01 special election contest this spring for Democrats to ever win any of these seats.

Furthermore, with Democrats out of power in the state capital in Atlanta, they will be hard-pressed to craft a favorable map for their Members. Interestingly, Democrats had tried to draw a map favorable to their candidates in 2002, but it ended up doing very, very little in the long-run, as the current delegation well-demonstrates. Assuming the GOP still holds the legislature in 2011 -- and this is a very good assumption, as they control the House 101-79, and the Senate 33-23 -- and Sonny Perdue is succeeded by a fellow Republican -- perhaps a bit less likely than the GOP holding the House and Senate, but still probable given Democrats' problems in the state today -- the state GOP can weaken the Eighth and Twelfth Districts to try to oust Marshall and Barrow. Should Georgia gain a new congressional seat (which is possible at this point), the map will certainly be drawn to help Republicans pick it up.

Outlook

What Democrats are looking at is a difficult landscape. The state will not be competitive in presidential elections at least for the next generation, regardless of how close some McCain-Obama polls look (or how former Georgia congressman Bob Barr does at McCain's expense). That's off the table. What Democrats should be looking towards is the 2010 Governor's race, and working to regain an advantage in the state legislature. With the margins as daunting as they are right now, this will take time, but given the Party's state, particularly in terms of the congressional delegation where each of the sitting Republicans are perched in iron-clad red seats, it should start here. And don't assume that controlling the state political apparatus will drastically impact the congressional picture given what happened in 2002 with the ill-fated map passed by Gov. Barnes and the then-Dem-controlled legislature. Besides, there is virtually no chance Democrats will hold the legislature in time for when the next census numbers are handed down. But it is nevertheless important because future federal candidates can more easily come from the political "minor leagues", if you will, and you have to start somewhere to gain your political influence back.

The Senate outlook is bad. While Saxby Chambliss has never achieved a level of popularity on part with a Thad Cochran, Richard Shelby, or even Johnny Isakson (though admittedly he is still in his first term in the Senate), Democrats were at a total loss to find a top-tier opponent for him this year (in large because such an individual may not even exist in Democratic Georgia politics at this point in time!). Chambliss will win comfortably, but not overwhelmingly over former State Rep. Jim Martin, who was the best candidate in a poor primary field. A very recent DSCC poll showing Chambliss up only 42-36 may well be accurate, but it is highly unlikely to be that close in the end: people may not love Chambliss, but come November, they'll pull the lever for him over a Democrat.

Johnny Isakson strikes me as even more popular than Chambliss; indeed, he won his first Senate term by an impressive 58-40, and if he runs again in 2010, he will win with ease. In the event that he runs for Governor, his seat would still be a tough get for the Democrats.

Democrats' best case scenario

At this point, finding a best case is pretty tough. I guess that it would be the following series of events: Jim Martin scores a stunning upset over Chambliss this November, Marshall and Barrow easily win new terms, and Democrats capture the governorship in 2010, thereby blocking any overly-partisan GOP redistricting plan. Plus, with 33 State Senate seats coming up, 21 of which are GOP-held, Democrats need only flip five seats while holding all of their own in order to grab the Senate. This is not impossible.

Likely outcome over the next two cycles

The above scenario ain't happening, at least as it pertains to Chambliss. Given the wide disparity in the state legislature, it would take a miracle effort for Democrats to take back the House, but just a lot of good luck to take the Senate. In terms of the State Senate, gains are likely, but a +5 year is a lot to ask for.

At this point, the likely scenario is that the delegation will by 7-6 going into the 2010 cycle. Assuming a Republican succeeds Governor Perdue, Republicans will hold all of the cards for redistricting, and they will probably target the Eighth and Twelfth Districts. This could oust one or both current Democratic Members, perhaps pushing the delegation into a lopsided 9-4.

In terms of the governorship, things are actually not as bad as they might seem, and there are viable nominees. The Attorney General, Labor Commission, and Agriculture Commissioner are all Democrats. Furthermore, Congressman Marshall, hailing from the center of the state and not Atlanta could be a strong statewide nominee. With redistricting looming over his head, look for Marshall to strongly consider leaving his seat and going for the Governor's job in 2010. Not to mention former Gov. Roy Barnes, former Secretary of State Cathy Cox, and other formally elected state Democrats who could seek high office.

And while Isakson's name has been mentioned as a gubernatorial candidate, he has denied those rumors. This might be good for Democrats in the end, as an open governorship might be more winnable for them then an open seat, particularly as Isakson would probably be the overall frontrunner in a gubernatorial race. But I concede this is purely political speculative, and either open seat could be winnable, though the GOP would obviously hold an early advantage in either circumstance.

In sum, therefore, any talk of re-realignment in Georgia is, quite bluntly, silliness. There is very little room for optimism for Democrats in the state right now. Both Senate seats, barring a miracle or an unexpected retirement, are out of reach. Right now, Democrats' sole objective should be identifying and recruiting their strongest possible nominee for Governor in two years, as that may be the only thing that can stop Republicans from erasing two current Democratic congressional seats.