Southern Re-realignment: Virginia

More than any other Southern state, Virginia has come full circle. In 2001, both U.S. Senators, a super-majority of the congressional delegation, both houses of the state legislature, and all three statewide offices -- Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General -- were Republican-controlled. Today, the governorship is held by a moderate Democrat, the State Senate flipped control from the Republicans to the Democrats, Barack Obama is in strong shape to be the first Democrat to win the state's 13 electoral votes since LBJ in 1964, and Democrats are all but assured of holding both U.S. Senate seats come January. Therefore, the salient question for Virginia Democrats is not so much what they can do to re-realign the Commonwealth's politics, but rather how can they best preserve their astonishing gains and maybe go even further.

The Senate picture is tremendous for Democrats

This November, Warner is facing fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore in the contest to replace the retiring John Warner. If M. Warner's popularity and the polls are any indication, he is a virtual shoo-in. Assuming the unlikely does not happen, Democrats would thus be in fairly firm control of both Senate seats (though, given the closeness of his win over George Allen in 2006, a race which was decided by 1,900 votes out of over 2.3 million cast, Senator Jim Webb could face a strong challenge in 2012). As we've been saying throughout this series of posts, this is precisely the ultimate goal Democrats need to be looking to achieve in order to establish true re-realignment. So, where does that leave us, as Virginia is on the threshold of that goal?

Developments at the state level are also favorable

Well, Democrats can look to the state level. With Governor Tim Kaine barred from seeking a second because of Virginia's silly one-and-done term limits law for governors, the big chair will be open next year. The GOP appears poised to nominate conservative sitting Attorney General Bob McDonnell, while southern State Senator Creigh Deeds (who lost the 2005 AG's race by ~300 votes to McDonnell) will face off against northern State Del. Brian Moran in a classic geographic primary battle for the Democratic nomination. At this point, the race appears to be a toss-up regardless of which man the Democrats choose.

Because of the unique nature of Virginia's governorship, it is difficult to gauge what a single outcome means for the state's political alignment and use it as a litmus test for future movements; though a loss would certainly be a set-back to Democrats' recent statewide gains. With McDonnell likely running, the Attorney General's slot is going to open, and that will certainly be contested, as it is one of the top (and only) springboards that can be used to develop political talent and future statewide candidates. GOP Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling has agreed to run for another term as LG, but apparently, should Governor Kaine agree to be Senator Obama's running mate, or otherwise leave office before his term runs out, Bolling will run for Governor, and McDonnell will not pursue the promotion.

The congressional delegation remains lop-sided in favor of the GOP

Democrats will also look to maintain their narrow hold on the state senate (which they won back in 2007), and try to wrest control of the House of Delegates. Here, the implications are important with redistricting looming in 2011. While Virginia is not slated to gain or lose any seats in Congress, Democratic control of the legislature and governorship would allow them to draw new lines. The current delegation is split 8-to-3 in favor of Republicans. Democrats have firm control over their three seats in the Third, Eighth, and Ninth Districts (though the last district is GOP-leaning at R+7, and could well turn when the 13-term incumbent Rick Boucher decides to retire). On the GOP side, the First, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Districts are pretty darn safe for the Republicans, though the middle two -- the 4th (R+5) and 5th (R+6), both held by conservative Republicans -- could one day be contested under near-perfect circumstances for Democrats.

The other three seats are of greatest interest over this and the next electoral cycle. With the shrewd Rep. Tom Davis retiring from his northern Virginia seat, Democrats nominated a strong nominee, Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connelly, and will almost certainly flip it in November over an unknown, albeit well-funded Republican. In 2006, Democrats came close to ousting then-first-term Rep. Thelma Drake of the Second District in southeastern Virginia, and while she is favored this cycle,. her race is worth watching. In the Tenth District, longtime GOP Rep. Frank Wolf will very likely win again this November, in spite of a vigorous opponent (the same one he beat in 2006), but his seat in northern Virginia continues to trend blue (it is currently R+5), and when Wolf retires -- at 69 years old and in his 14th consecutive term, that may not be far away -- or perhaps before then, should Democrats have firm control of redistricting, his seat is a prime candidate for flipping to blue.

Outlook

Democrats' outlook in Virginia is at this time, and probably going forward, better than anywhere else in the South, perhaps excepting Arkansas. While the party may face a good challenge to hold the governorship, this is not necessarily a sign of weakness or decline in a state that replaces its chief executive every four years, and has only two other statewide offices. Besides, Democrats may well win the office anyway; it is hard to get a good feel for the contest so early and with several possible eventualities unsettled.

Elsewhere, the two Senate seats are as good in the Democrats' hands, and Warner could likely hold what will be his seat for as long as John Warner held it, assuming M. Warner does not one day become President. And while Democrats should not take Webb's seat for granted given the closeness of his 2006 election, and because he is not nearly as popular as Warner, he is still well-positioned right now and 2012 is a ways away.

Democrats' best case scenario

In terms of the Senate, the best case scenario is already realized (or will be come November). In other matters, the best outlook for the next two cycles would be to hold the governorship and find a way to grab both halves of the legislature. Finally, Democrats' best outlook for the congressional delegation would be to turn the current 8-3 deficit into a 6-5 advantage by winning the 2d, 10th, and 11th districts by 2010.

Likely outcome

While the future is pretty bright for the blue-siders, it ain't as good as what's presented immediately above. The Senate will be held by Webb and Warner from next January through 2012. With the GOP holding a 53-45 majority in the state house of delegates, it likely will not flip soon, while Democrats have a slight advantage to hold their narrow 21-19 margin in the senate. As we said, the governor's race is up in the air, but that could change in the off-chance that Tim Kaine is selected to be Obama's Vice President, and then wins. In that case, Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling would assume the job and have its incumbency when he runs for a full term next year. That would make him a clear favorite in the race.

With the governor's race a toss-up right now, redistricting will be up in the air for now. The 11th District will turn this November, but the 2nd and 10th almost certainly will not, but look for Wolf's seat to go Democratic upon his retirement, whenever that may be, an advantage that could be off-set when Rick Boucher gives up his red southwester 9th district seat.

Finally, the presidential results in Virginia will be important. Should Obama do well and perhaps win, it could portend very well for Democrats. Indeed, as northern Virginia becomes bigger and bigger -- and by extension, Virginia becomes bluer and bluer -- it may just be a matter of time before the Commonwealth supports Democratic candidates in statewide contests.

All in all, things look much better for Democrats in Virginia than in several decades. Re-realignment has certainly hit the Commonwealth.