Southern Re-realignment: Florida

The situation in Florida is, at this moment, not great for Democrats as the Sunshine State seems to be slowly but surely moving away from the party. While, for a host of reasons I would not lump Florida in with many of the rest of the Southern states politically because of its unique make-up and its own internal dynamics, solely in lieu of its geography, it fits to look at it here in our series on Southern re-realignment.

Florida has become a mostly red state

Not long ago, Florida was more favorable terrain for Democrats, as they had a strong presence at the state level, and remained very competitive in state and federal offices. This changed fast when Jeb Bush became Governor in 1998, consolidated GOP strength in the state, and was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2002. In his eight years in office -- and even after he left Tallahassee -- Bush has remained very popular in the state, and could have easily won a third term if he was not legally barred from running. His popularity played no small part in electing in 2006 then-Republican State Attorney General Charlie Crist to succeed him in what was a difficult year for Republican candidates across the country. Today, Crist is very popular in the state, and right now looks to be a shoo-in for re-election in 2010 (assuming, in the unlikely even that he is not tapped to be McCain's running mate).

To make matters worse for Democrats, Republicans have a stranglehold on both the state house (77-43) and senate (26-14), giving the GOP firm control over the state's political affairs, and all-important redistricting -- which they used to great effect in 2002 in hurting sitting Democrats, protecting their incumbents, and carving out a couple of new House districts which are now occupied by two very conservative congressmen: Tom Feeney and Mario Diaz-Balart. Finally, Republicans hold all but one of the other state offices, with Democrats only controlling Florida's CFO position, currently held by Alex Sink (the wife of failed 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride).

The House picture

The congressional delegation is also badly lopsided, with Republicans holding a 16-9 advantage. Opportunities for Democratic gains are there, even in the current cycle, but they are few and may be tough to grab. Ten of the 16 seats are pretty much untouchable: Jeff Miller in the First District (R+19), Ander Crenshaw in the Fourth District (R+16), Ginny Brown-Waite in the Fifth (R+5), Cliff Stearns in the Sixth (R+8), John Mica in the Seventh (R+4), Bill Young in the Tenth (D+1), Adam Putnam in the Twelfth (R+5), Connie Mack in the Fourteenth (R+10), the soon-to-be open Fifteenth seat (R+4), and Illeana Ros-Lehtinen in the Eighteenth (R+4); though, Waite's (63 years old), Mica's (65), and especially Young's (77) seats could all be flipped when the incumbents decide to retire.

One thing in Democrats' favor is that nearly all of their nine seats are safely in the blue column. The Third (D+16), Eleventh (D+11), Seventeenth (D+35), Nineteenth (D+21), Twentieth (D+18), Twenty-second (D+4), and Twenty-third Districts (D+23) will likely not switch, regardless of any retirements. There is a great danger that the Second District (R+2) could go red when current Rep. Allen Boyd (63 years old) retires. The Sixteenth District (now occupied by first-term congressman Tim Mahoney) is the one Florida Democratic seat which is generally felt to be most endangered in the here-and-now. But Mahoney may be in stronger shape than some people anticipate. While Mahoney only won 50-48 in 2006, over Mark Foley's name which remained on the ballot (though, State Rep. Joe Negron campaigned for the seat, as, had Foley won, Negron would have been seated in the disgraced Republican's place), this district, at R+2, is not nearly as red as many commentators seem to believe. Mahoney has also fundraised very well after some high-profile missteps. Personally, I expect Mahoney to win re-election this November, regardless of who comes out of the three-person GOP primary field.

The other six seats can be contested under the right circumstances, with some being strongly challenged this year. The 2008 congressional picture is as follows: with just one or two exceptions, Democrats safely hold all the districts they reasonably should, with great room to grow this year in the Eighth (R+3), Thirteenth (R+4), Twenty-first (R+6), Twenty-fourth (R+3), and Twenty-fifth (R+4) Districts, where Democrats have either fielded some strong challengers (see the Twenty-first and Twenty-fourth districts, for example), or where the incumbent is facing personal or professional problems which imperil an otherwise fairly-red seat (see the Thirteenth (campaign finance scandal) and Twenty-fourth Districts (possible corruption)). How Democrats are able to do in these seats -- all of which lean to the GOP, some more than others -- will say a lot for where the Party is going in terms of making inroads in the state.

The Senate picture

Somewhat surprisingly, the U.S. Senate picture is not as bleak for Democrats. The senior Senator, Bill Nelson, is popular, having won a second term overwhelmingly in 2006. Assuming Nelson does not retire in 2012, the seat should remain safely Democratic. A 2012 retirement would obviously create problems. The junior Senator, Mel Martinez, is not nearly as popular or entrenched as Nelson (with those two linked approval polls showing his ratings at 43/42 and 39/39 -- awful findings for an incumbent), having won his first term in 2004 by just 50-48. Up for re-election in 2010, Martinez's seat should be Democrats' absolute number one priority in Florida simply because the junior senator is surprisingly beatable.

The only head-to-head polling on the 2010 race so far shows Martinez down slightly to Debbie Wasserman Schultz, tied with Bob Wexler, down six to Alex Sink, and losing badly to former Senator Bob Graham (who is highly unlikely to return to the Senate). Because Democrats are a distinct minority in Florida, there are only a handful of strong possible candidates: state CFO Alex Sink, powerful second-term congresswoman Wasserman Schultz, and former state Sen. Rod Smith, to name a few. Current first-term Reps. Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein could also be possibilities.

But herein lies a problem for Democrats: because basically all of the Democratically-held congressional seats are safe seats, the incumbents have been free to amass very liberal voting records. This applies to Corrine Brown, Kendrick Meek, Bob Wexler, and Alcee Hastings. As a result, they might not gibe well statewide, as voters outside of Southern Florida are not nearly as liberal as people in much of the rest of the state.

Wasserman-Schultz might be a good bet: while she is liberal, she is much more measured in her approach, and has built herself into a powerful force in just her second term, as she has seats on the prestigious Judiciary Committee and the powerful Appropriations Committee; in fact, she is even an Appropriations Cardinal (a subcommittee chair) -- something perhaps unprecedented for such a young Member. While they are in their first terms now, Klein and Mahoney could be contenders as Klein is an impressive fundraiser (and turned a lot of heads when he ousted longtime congressman Clay Shaw), and Mahoney's fundraising ability and moderate-to-conservative record could be an asset in a statewide campaign. Finally, Sink could be the best nominee as she has already been elected statewide. Still, while many of these people could pose strong challenges to Martinez, he will still be a tough out, no question about it.

Outlook

At this point, Democrats' prospects in Florida are not as terrible as they may seem at first glance. For the most part, Democrats can only grow at the congressional level. They can make a good start this fall by winning several of the contest House seats we outlined above. In particular, the Twenty-first and Twenty-fifth Districts in southern Florida should be the top targets for several reasons. First, the incumbents, Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart are fairly conservative Republicans. More importantly, they represent the center of Florida's vibrant Cuban community, long the key electoral bulwark for Republicans in Florida. For decades, Florida's Cuban voters have been providing overwhelming support for GOP candidates of all stripes and offices, thereby providing margins necessary to overcome strong Democratic votes in Broward, Palm Beach, and parts of Miami-Dade Counties.

In the last few months, the national media has been effusive in its coverage of these two races, seizing on the national significance of Democrats finally capturing a healthy share of the Cuban vote. Much of this analysis is true, but looking at the races merely from a Florida-centric as opposed to national viewpoint is what we care about. If Democrats can find a way to capture one or both of the seats, it could allow them to finally land a beachhead in this part of Southern Florida, and perhaps allow Democrats to chip away at the Cuban vote for all future statewide votes. Indeed, without universal Cuban support, many Florida Republicans running statewide would have big problems cobbling together the votes necessary to win. Having a Joe Garcia (Mario's opponent) or Raul Martinez (Lincoln's opponent) as national spokesmen for the Democratic Party in South Florida would be a big deal.

Democrats' best case scenario

Looking towards this November and November 2010, Democrats' best case scenario would be to win as many seats possible of the contested five, holding Mahoney's seat, and come 2010, win the Tenth District (assuming Bill Young retires). Democrats would also pick up Senator Martinez's seat and make some gains in the state legislature, where they are badly out-numbered. Right now, it is hard to believe that Crist is beatable in 2010, and as a result, no top-notch Democrat will risk a political suicide race against him.

Likely 2010 scenario

While Democrats might do well this year, the situation is likely not going to be nearly as rosy. Look for Mahoney to indeed survive, but the GOP incumbents should survive in the Eighth and Thirteenth Districts. In the Eighth District, Ric Keller always appears a bit vulnerable, but the fractured Democratic primary field and the lack of a top-shelf Dem challenger, not to mention a seemingly apparent lack of full interest from the DCCC, make this seat unlikely to turn this cycle. In the Thirteenth District, we have a rematch of the 2006 contest between now-Rep. Vern Buchanan, and Christine Jennings, who lost to Buchanan by 368 votes two years ago. While Buchanan has run into some potential ethics/scandal problems, and the DCCC has added Jennings to its Red-to-Blue list, it is unclear that Jennings will be able to win this time. Personally, I think he repeated allegations of voting improprieties in the last race -- whether true or not -- may taint her with the 'sore loser' label, and hinder her ability to overcome the incumbent.

Right now the other three -- the 21st, 24th, and 25th -- are total toss-ups that could either way. I am not really interested in using this blog to make specific (and worthless) predictions on races like one can get on any politics blog under the sun, but my quick, gut feeling is that Democrats have a good chance to win one of the two Diaz-Balart seats while, having an outside shot at both. In terms of the Feeney seat, while his likely challenger, Suzanne Kosmas, looks strong and Feeney is clearly in dangerous waters, I am not convinced the race is a toss-up yet. I just do not have a great feel for the Feeney race yet. I figure he will survive. Incidentally, there has been no polling on the 24th District race, in part probably because the primaries have not been held yet.

In terms of the Martinez Senate seat, the outcome will depend on who Democrats are able to recruit to take on the incumbent. If they are unable to pull in a very credible challenger, look for Martinez to survive, but with his low approval ratings, he would be highly vulnerable to any of those names -- Sink, Wasserman Schultz, and even Wexler -- we mentioned earlier. Finally, Crist is almost certain to win a second term. With a GOP safe in both the state house and senate, this will give Republicans control over all redistricting, in which case they would look to hurt any marginal Democrats like Tim Mahoney, Allen Boyd, or any winners in the contested seats this year, should they still be in office come 2011, such as a future Rep. Jennings, Raul Martinez, Garcia, or Kosmas.

The state of Florida's re-realignment will depend greatly on November

In terms of re-realignment, Democrats are certainly in a position of weakness right now. What happens in November will say a great deal of whether Democrats are strengthening their position in the state, or are going nowhere fast. Obama's showing, win or lose, will be telling, but how the contested congressional races will turn out says just as, if not more on things. As all five of the contested seats are GOP-leaning, any Democratic wins would be impressive. Ditto what happens with the Sixteenth District race and Tim Mahoney. Of particular importance to Democrats should be what happens with the Diaz-Balart brothers. A win in either or both seats would reverberate loudly, it could give the party capable national spokesmen for the Florida Cuban electorate in future elections.

Looking forward to 2010, Democrats are actually in a rare position of weakness everywhere, except maybe in the Senate race where the incumbent, Mel Martinez, is not popular after several years in office, and highly vulnerable at this time. Unlike most other states, as we have posted and will show in future posts, where you have to build up to get to the point where you can contest Senate races, Florida is the reverse, with the 2010 seat looking promising despite Democrats' problems at nearly all other levels of the state in Florida. This is mostly because Florida never really underwent a true Southern Realignment like the rest of the Deep South, because, as we mentioned, Florida is not really a true Southern state under any test, except its geography. Nevertheless, Democrats would do well to take out Martinez, as the governorship and state legislature will likely be in Republican hands in 2011 when the next round of redistricting starts up.

What might be most heartening to Democrats right now is that they seem to have the wind at their back in many of these races. While these close districts are all GOP-leaning, the recent uptick in Democratic registration in these regions of the state is unmistakable, and can only work to aid the Democratic challengers. How much will be seen in November.