The Case Against Evan Bayh

This afternoon, I had a lively lunch discussion with a couple of friends on the state of the veepstakes. For a good part of the conversation, we talked about what seems to be the name du jour on the Democratic side: Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Whereas Virginia Governor Tim Kaine was clearly the flavor of last week, a lot of speculation over the last few days has fallen on Senator Bayh. There are obvious reasons for this. Bayh is a well-spoken member of the Senate, and is hugely popular in Indiana. His father, former Senator Birch Bayh was a popular three-term Senator, first elected in 1962, and served until he was washed out of office by Dan Quayle in the Reagan landslide of 1980.

The younger Bayh has had an impressive rise. He was elected Secretary of State at age 30, and Governor two years later. When he was elected to the Senate in 1998, he won 88 of the state's 92 counties in amassing 64 percent in what is a fairly conservative state. Six years later, he was re-elected with 62 percent of the vote. Politically, Bayh has cut a moderate profile and record throughout most of his time in the Senate, though, since he was re-elected, he has moved slightly to the left (for example, he voted against confirming John Roberts, Sam Alito, and even Condi Rice).

In short, Bayh has an impressive electoral resume, but for a handful of reasons, he is flawed and, in this author's humble opinion, should not be selected as Senator Obama's running mate.


Reason No. 1: Bayh does not really help Obama where he needs help


Even though Bayh has served closed to ten years in the Senate, he has neither any big signature issues or policy achievements which would help ward off the inexperience argument McCain will use against Obama, nor does Bayh have substantive credentials in military affairs or foreign policy. Sure, Bayh is on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees, but he has not really been a national spokesperson issues like the war, military preparedness, etc. Bayh also voted in favor of the authorizing force in Iraq.


To be fair and blunt, Bayh has largely been a show-horse in the Senate: he has certainly been ambitious and cuts a good profile on the Sunday talk shows, and he is even able to talk cogently and intelligently on a host of policy issues, but he does not have the achievements to back it all up. This contrasts somewhat with someone like Joe Biden, who as a longtime member of the Foreign Relations Committee -- and its current chair -- can point to any of numerous foreign affairs issues where he has taken a national leadership position. Where can Bayh say the same thing, and if he can, where would it help Obama? This is unclear at best.



Reason No. 2: Bayh is too vanilla

For a campaign that aims to run on energy and excitement, Evan Bayh would not add much. He is pretty droll, calm, and subdued. As noted above, he comes across as very sharp and reasoned, but his presence on the stump could end up weighing down Obama's energy. Furthermore, Bayh does not have the persona to serve as any type of attack dog. You generally want to have a veep who is adept and able to do the main candidate's attacks so the presidential nominee does not have to get his hands dirty. For just about his entire career, Bayh has cut a quiet Senate profile, and it is not entirely clear, at least to me, that he would be able to switch that off and immediately be able to go on the attack against his longtime colleague John McCain. This all is a big concern with a potential Bayh candidacy.


Reason No. 3: Bayh is a Washington creature

This is not a fatal problem, merely another strike against the Hoosier State Senator. While Bayh served two reasonably well-regarded terms as Governor of Indiana, he has spent his last ten years in Washington, D.C. If Obama wants to break away from the mold of being another Washington insider -- which is pushed forth because he himself is a U.S. Senator -- then he may want to opt for someone outside the beltway, like a Tim Kaine or Kate Sebelius, for example.


Reason No. 4: While Bayh would help win Indiana, it is not clear he would clinch it, or any other midwestern state for that matter

As we discussed in the beginning, Evan Bayh is wildly popular in his homestate. You probably would have to be in order to win your two Senate elections with 64 and 62 percent of the vote, respectively. This, despite the fact that Bayh has compiled a moderate to slightly liberal record in the Senate. That the conservative voters of Indiana have looked past this record speaks volumes to the respectability of the Bayh name in Indiana.

All of that being said, it is not clear that Bayh would end up carrying his state for Obama. Now, as we gone over several times before, whether or not a veep will carry a state for the ticket should not be a huge consideration. It is stupid. That being said, one of the reasons that Bayh's name has gotten so much play lately is that some observers believe that Bayh could tip his state's 11 electoral votes to Democratic ticket. As a result, this assertion is worth looking at.

There is no question that Bayh would be helpful to Obama in Indiana. This is obvious. But it is important to properly conceptualize the state's political dynamic. Indiana is not Ohio, nor is it Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, or Wisconsin. Indiana is a very Republican state. It supported President 57-41 over Al Gore, and 60-39 over John Kerry. Those are not the margins one would find in a swing state, or even a marginal swing state. They are the margins befitting of a red state. Sure, Democrats took three formally GOP-held House seats in the 2006 midterms, but let's take a closer look at the state's congressional districts to see what this means.

Currently, four of the state's nine Representatives are Republican: Mark Souder in the Third District, Steve Buyer in the Fourth, Dan Burton in the Fifth, and Mike Pence in the Sixth. What do all of these men have in common? They are all hardcore conservatives. In order, their districts have PVI ratings of R+16, R+17, R+20, and R+11.

Interestingly, several of the Democratically-held distircts are not terribly Democratic leaning either. The First District held by Peter Visclosky is a strong D+8, and the Seventh held by Andre Carson is D+9, so they are the two safest Democratic districts. But let's look at the three that were won by Dems in 2006: the Second District is R+4, a pretty good GOP district, the Eighth won in impressive fashion by Brad Ellsworth is R+9, and finally Baron Hill's Ninth District is R+7.

All in all, with the exception of the districts containing Indianapolis (the Seventh) and Gary (the First), Indiana is a strong Republican state. It is not a swing state. So far, the only polls of the state have shown Indiana to be tight, with Obama even holding a slight lead in a recent poll. Certainly, these numbers are extremely encouraging for Senator Obama, and he is wise to be opening up offices all over the state to see if he can keep Indiana close enough to win in the end. Still, Obama has to know and his campaign has to know that the state is unlikely to turn unless the election turns out to be a national beating. Adding Bayh would help, and could turn it, but Obama would be foolish to tap Bayh for this reason.

If the Democrats were to pick a veep based at least in part on the rationale that he is going to help grab a key swing state, they may as well pluck Tim Kaine. I acknowledge readily that Kaine is not nearly as popular in Virginia as Bayh is in Indiana, but as things stand right now, Virginia is much more winnable in November than Indiana, regardless of what the polls say (and they seem to suggest that both states are tight). In other words, having Kaine on the ticket might more easily swing Virginia, that an Obama-Bayh ticket would turn Indiana.

One more thing on the geography issue. Just because Evan Bayh is from Indiana does not mean he will be very helpful in other midwestern states, particularly Ohio or Iowa. Why would he -- just because he is from a neighboring state? Again, this is foolish logic. Bayh has no real connection to these states, nor is he a national leader on economic or agricultural issues that would appeal to voters in these (and other) states. This is an argument that we discussed at lunch, and I completely dismiss it.


Reason No. 5: Picking Bayh would give up a safe Senate seat

To a political hack like me, this is the biggest reason why Evan Bayh will not be picked as Obama's running mate. With a Republican (Mitch Daniels) in control of the governorship in Indiana, if Bayh were to become Vice President, Daniels would be able to tap a replacement to hold the seat until a special election could be held, presumably in November 2010. Daniels would likely tap one of Indiana's four ultra-conservative House Members, probably either Steve Buyer or Mike Pence (Burton is too old and crazy and Souder is too old). Giving them a head start in the seat, and given the youth and political inexperience of Indiana's Democratic delegation, either Buyer or Pence would be able to hold the seat, giving the Senate GOP caucus a strong conservative vote for the long haul.

I am sure a lot of people think the Senate is small potatoes compared with the White House, and to a large extent, that view is entirely accurate. Winning the White House is more important than holding an individual Senate seat or governorship. It is for this reason, that I strongly endorsed tapping Ted Strickland or Mark Warner for the number two position. Either would have been a superb match for Obama. Strickland would have been hugely helpful in pushing Obama over the top not just in Ohio, but across the midwest where his work and life story would have been attractive. Similarly, Warner would have all but assured Obama Virginia's 13 electoral votes. Sure, picking Warner would have cost the Democrats a sure-fire Senate seat (though, a lot of other Democrats could well beat the detested Jim Gilmore), and picking Ted Strickland would have cost the Dems a bigtime governorship, especially considering Ohio will lose two seats in redistricting in 2011. But both would have been worth it as they would have been such valuable running mates.

For reasons outlined above, Bayh does not have the same strengths implicit in his candidacy. Picking him would not be as beneficial as picking either a Warner or Strickland, but it would cost the Democrats a Senate in a red state, one that is entirely safe now, and for the duration of Evan Bayh's stay in the Upper Chamber (naturally, assuming he does not do anything stupid).

One Senate seat is no small matter indeed. Look at the races this year. The DSCC and NRSC have raised and will spend probably over $100 million dollars on the dozen or so Senate races that are heavily contested. These are not cheap seats and they mean an enormous amount to both parties. Removing Bayh from the Senate and replacing him with a conservative like Buyer (a very loyal GOP foot-soldier in the House, I think he would ultimately be the pick because he possesses most, if not all of Pence's conservatism, without any of the baggage that comes along with Pence's outspoken Christian conservative views or Pence's occassional inkling towards bipartisanship) or Pence would be a big blow to Senate Democrats seeking to extend their majority. Furthermore, as I noted, this is a seat that would probably be lost for a while, as someone like Brad Ellsworth (the Dems' strongest Senate prospect) was just elected in 2006, and unlikely to be a viable statewide candidate for a couple of terms, about right when Dick Lugar is likely to retire in 2012.

I concede that this argument would be moot if Governor Daniels were defeated for re-eleciton this year. If Daniels were to lose, with Bayh taking office as Vice President on January 20, a Governor Jill Long Thompson (the current Democratic nominee) would be able to replace him with a Democrat of her choosing. Nevertheless, her chances of winning do not appear great right now. It would be fairly surprising if she won, as Daniels is fairly well liked after a rocky start, and has an enormous amount of cash for his re-election bid.


Conclusion

Let me state clearly that I like Evan Bayh. I think he is an impressive politician, he is likeable, and he would be a pretty good second-tier running mate choice if I was advising Team Obama. Further, because he is a white male, he probably fits on the key criteria, as in the end, it is likely that Obama will have to pick a white man as his running mate.

But Bayh does not bring enough to the ticket to ultimately be picked, and as a result, he should sit tight in the Senate where he has a safe seat for as long as he desires. And if the presidential bug is still itching him in 2012 or 2016, as it does just about every Senator, then he can explore a White House run, and be a half-decent candidate. At just 52 years old right now, there will certainly be other opportunities. But Obama-Bayh is not the ticket for 2008.