Southern Re-realignment: Texas

Of all thirteen of the Southern states we are looking at, in no place are Democrats in more dire straits today than in Texas. Democrats are basically totally out of power in Texas, and unlike in places like Georgia or Alabama, it has been this way for over ten years. Worse yet, things are improving at no more than a glacial pace. Republicans today control all 29 statewide offices, state offices and the two U.S. Senate seats. A Democrat has not been elected Governor since 1990, or U.S. Senator since 1988. Because of a deeply ingrained conservative culture and some plain bad luck, the horizon does not appear terribly bright. The best place for Democrats to look for conceivable and valuable gains is the State House, where they are only a handful of seats away from regaining the majority they lost in 2002.

Forget the Senate

The current Senate picture is bad. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is very popular, and absolutely unbeatable. Should she run again in 2012, it would be a walk in the park for her, much like her other elections. If she were to leave the Senate in 2010, as some have been speculating, and run for Governor, that might change things a little bit. The seat would still be tough to get, even if Democrats were able to recruit their best possible nominee -- Houston Mayor Bill White or Rep. Chet Edwards -- given the state's dynamics, but it would be less uphill than facing Hutchison herself. But still very, very hard, and probably not worth focusing too hard on right now.

The junior Senator, John Cornyn, is actually not terribly popular, and like a Saxby Chambliss, he generally boasts weak poll numbers; in fact, his opponent this year, Rick Noriega, has stayed relatively close in polls (at least for a Texas Democrat running statewide). But those numbers are probably off the mark for a number of a reasons. First, we have jut really started the general campaign, and this is where a big fundraising advantage will begin to matter. A month ago, Cornyn had ten times more cash on hand than Noriega. That would be hard to overcome for anyone candidate, much less a Democrat running in Texas in a presidential year. Second, with Noriega a State Representative, he has a big gap to close on Cornyn in terms of plain name recognition, as Cornyn, prior to being elected Senator in 2002, was State Attorney General and on the Texas Supreme Court. Cornyn is certainly a known quantity.

Finally, while the polls are somewhat encouraging, and Cornyn has never really opened up insurmountable leads in this race, that was the same dynamic in 2002. In that race, Democrats ran Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a moderate and highly-touted candidate. Kirk fundraised fairly well, and remained close in polls throughout the campaign for the open seat (which was vacated by the retiring Phil Gramm). While I do not have a link, I distinctly remember one of the final polls had it as a one-point race, and on CNN James Carville predicted Kirk would win (and after Democrats got creamed nationally that election night, he famously put a garbage pail over his head). In the end, though, Cornyn crushed Kirk 55-43.

The lesson? Like Chambliss and others, Cornyn may not be terribly popular -- and that is not hard to understand as he is kind of charismatically-challenged -- but because his state is so red and his views are in sync with a big portion of the Texas electorate, it would take a near-miracle to topple him this year. In the end, expect Cornyn to win easily both because of the state's political dynamic as well as because of his opponent's inability to fundraise at a large enough clip.

The 2010 governorship

The current Governor, Rick Perry, has never been terribly popular either, but bad circumstances and luck have conspired against Democrats' ability to oust him. First elevated to the governorship after George W. Bush became President, Perry was beatable in 2006, but he ended up winning with 39 percent of the vote because two well-funded and well-known independent candidates ate into the anti-Perry vote that could have gone to the Democratic candidate, former congressman Chris Bell.

When Perry comes up again in 2010 -- and it appears that he will run again -- he reasonably could be challenged yet again by Democrats. Unfortunately, the popular Senator Hutchison appears primed to primary challenge Perry. While the more conservative Perry could certainly survive a primary, Hutchison would have an excellent shot to beat the Governor. Perry might opt not to run for another four years (he has been in office since 2001), and may even go for Hutchison's Senate seat to avoid a titanic battle. If she were to make it out of the primary, she would dominate in the general election.

The 2010 Governor's race has enormous importance with Texas set to gain three or four new congressional seats. Should the GOP hold the governorship and both houses of the legislature, it is almost certain that all four new districts would become red bastions. Furthermore, assuming they still hold the legislature, Republicans would likely go after Democrats sitting in red districts.

The dreary congressional delegation picture

This likely turn of events would make more lopsided an already GOP-heavy congressional delegation. Prior to 2002, the delegation was majority Democrat, but courtesy of former Rep. Tom DeLay's mid-decade redistricting plan, numerous longtime Democratic Reps were ousted from power, ushering in a new class of ultra-conservative House Republicans, and solidifying existing GOP seats for years to come.

Today, the delegation is split 19-13 in favor of the GOP. Despite a couple of unusually strong challenges in the Seventh and Tenth Districts this year, blue gains for 2008 appear unlikely; if anything, losses are more probable. In point of fact, like in Georgia, Democrats appear to hold all of the seats that possibly look winnable. The vast majority of current GOP-occupied seats are overwhelmingly red, and they would not turn under even the best of circumstances. Worse yet, Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson's seat in the Twenty-second district is arguably the most endangered blue seat in America this cycle (ironically, Lampson was one of the House Democrats thrown out of office by DeLay's redistricting, and he came back to win DeLay's seat after the disgraced Majority Leader resigned from Congress after being indicted by a Texas state grand jury).

A quick look at the current seats is instructive. First the GOP-held districts. The First (R+17), Second (R+12), Third (R+17), Fourth (R+17), Fifth (R+16), Sixth (R+15), Seventh (R+16), Eighth (R+20), Tenth (R+13), Eleventh (R+25), the Twelfth (R+14), the Thirteenth (R+18), the Fourteenth (R+15), the Nineteenth (R+25), the Twenty-first (R+13), the Twenty-fourth (R+15), the Twenty-sixth (R+12), the Thirty-first (R+15), and the Thirty-second (R+11) Districts are all overwhelmingly Republican. On the whole, Texas' averaged PVI is R+8, which ranks it just below Nebraska and Oklahoma as the highest in the nation for a multi-district state (therefore, excluding states with an At-Large congressman).

As those PVI numbers indicate, none of them would likely be flipped as they are currently constituted, barring an incredible series of events (a la Tom DeLay or Mark Foley situations -- i.e. an indictment or sex scandal hampering an incumbent). Think about that for a moment: all 19 of the state's congressional Republicans are in unassailable districts. The least Republican seat held by a Republican, Rep. Pete Sessions' 32nd District is "only" R+11. To put that in proper context, currently, only six Democrats sit in redder districts in all of Congress: Chet Edwards in TX-17 (R+18), Jim Matheson in UT-02 (R+17), Gene Taylor in MS-04 (R+16), Nick Lampson in TX-22, Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL (R+13), and Ike Skelton in (MO-04)). Sure, a perfect confluence of events could lead a Democrat to one day either win one these districts or oust of these incumbents, but given the districts themselves and the state of the Democratic strength in the Lone Start State, the possibility for growth is remote, and, as the Democratic districts will show, Texas Republicans actually have room to grow.

On the Democratic side, there are a much smaller subset of lopsided seats, and some others which could be endangered either by retirement or future redistricting. Let's summarize them. The Ninth (D+21), the Sixteenth (D+9), the Eighteenth (D+23), the Twentieth (D+8), the Twenty-ninth (D+8), and the Thirtieth (D+26) Districts are all immune to real GOP challenge. Furthermore, several of them have to stay put as black or Hispanic districts based on the requirements of the federal Voting Rights Act (this article has some good discussion of the Act as it related to the DeLay redistricting). That is only six districts of the Democrats' current 13 that are strongly Democratic.

The Fifteenth (D+3), the Seventeenth (R+18), the Twenty-second (R+15), the Twenty-third (R+4), the Twenty-fifth (D+1), the Twenty-seventh (R+1), and the Twenty-eighth (R+1) Districts are all much closer. Again, some of these seats are required to stay majority Hispanic because of federal law, so the seats held by Reps. Silvestre Reyes, Henry Cuellar, Ruben Hinojosa, and Solomon Ortiz probably won't change in the near future; though, conceivably, the Rodriguez, Ortiz, and Cullar seats could be won by a Hispanic Republican like former Rep. Henry Bonilla (who Rodriguez beat in a close run-off in December 2006). If Nick Lampson does survive this November, his seat will always be in danger, at least until he becomes solidified. But when he retires, it would likely go back to the GOP. Chet Edwards seat in the 17th District will also undoubtedly go Republican when he finally retires; the fact that he has held it this long, after the district was made even redder by the DeLay plan, is amazing in itself. Lloyd Doggett's seat in the 25th will be vulnerable when he retires, though that is a bit less likely given that Austin is Democrat-friendly. And none of this even considers Republican redistricting in 2011 which could further harm these men and their electorally viability.

What this all means is that At 19 seats, the Republican delegation should only grow based on the numbers. Unless retirements can universally be held off, or Democrats can find a way to win the governorship or one of the houses of the state legislature by 2011, look for that 19 to rise a few. With Democrats only down 79-71 in the State House, this goal is not entirely impossible, and should they win the House Democrats could block any overly-ambitious redistricting efforts. However, it would take winning all three to give Democrats complete power to either completely limit Republicans' strengths in the delegation, or perhaps even try to drastically redraw the map for Democrats' advantage. This is probably a bridge too far, even for 2011.

In sum, the Democratic House picture is pretty dispiriting for Democrats.

Outlook

Forget about re-realignment. Texas today is not even at the start of the beginning of the first act of the process. Even if Kay Bailey Hutchison were to leave the Senate, her seat would be exceedingly hard to win, as there is a class of major GOP players who could run; conversely, there are almost no Democrats who could raise the money, much less have the current name recognition that it would take to win. Bill White would probably be the best nominee, and Rep. Edwards (he of the R+18 17th District) would be good too, but both would face extremely uphill battles against several possible nominees who already have statewide profiles, and who will have the "R" next to their name on the ballot. In terms of the Cornyn seat this year, it is simply out of reach despite Cornyn's own weaknesses as a candidate.

The governorship too will probably fall from the Democrat's grasp, unless Perry stays on and wins his primary, and Democrats can run a very credible nominee who is not hampered by robust independent candidacies. Consequently, one group of places for Democrats to look towards in terms of rebuilding are the lesser statewide offices like Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, State Comptroller, Agriculture Commissioner, Land Commissioner, and all three seats on the Texas Railroad Commission. At this moment, Republicans control every one of them. The State Supreme Court (which is elected) and which is all Republican should also be a goal too.

But perhaps most importantly, is the state legislature. Currently, both houses are not overwhelmingly Republican, with the House at 79-71, and the Senate a bit further apart at 20-11. Now, I don't pretend to have any idea of whether Democrats have any shot at adding seats this year, but making advances in the legislature should clearly be the party's top goal, particularly in light of the looming redistricting whose consequences will be gigantic. With Democrats only needing five seats to take a house majority, they are not terribly far from that goal. Indeed, in 2006 Democrat picked up seats, and over the current session, they picked up two more, one through a party switch and the other via a special election win. And there is some history on Democrats' side, as they only lost the House in 2003 (with the new GOP majority implementing the DeLay mid-decade redistricting plan just one year later). Similarly, it would take flipping five seats in the Senate to turn over that chamber. The legislature might not be a sexy or glamorous place politically, but you have to start somewhere, and Texas Democrats are today at the bottom.

One more thing: progress may be coming, but not tomorrow

Let me close with this. Recently, I came across an issue of The Nation on a newsstand with the front cover proclaiming "Democrats Stage a Revival in Texas." The article inside detailed how after years of struggle, particularly since Bush came to prominence, Democrats are now poised to turn Texas back into a Democratic state. Among its premises, the author presents a strong case for why Democrats are crafting a lasting resurgence in the Lone Star State, arguing, among other things that the Texas Republican Party and its most notable officials have gone too far to the right, and the GOP's failure to attract the growing state Hispanic population (mostly because of anti-immigration rhetoric) will eventually cost the Party its dominance in the state.

I do not dispute these arguments; though, I think a lot of the article's points are flimsy, and just a long string of positive quotes from eager Democratic activists, fawning college professors, and some dispirited Republicans touting the rise of Texas Democrats and the slow demise of Lone Star Republican. Riding big support from the exploding state Hispanic population, Democrats have a good shot not only to build on their current position, but actually one day gain majority status in the state again. But this will not be happening tomorrow, or next year, or even in all likelihood by 2012. Rather, it is going to take a good while.

The fact that 19 of the state's 32 congressional districts are overwhelmingly Republican red is telling. And yes, the congressional map is not a perfect barometer because it was a partisan stroke by Tom DeLay and Republicans, but that argument cuts both ways. Prior to 2004, when Democrats still held an advantage in the delegation, that too was because of a well-drawn map from the legislature after the 2000 census numbers were released. In other words, whoever draws the map is important, but what is more important is that those Republican voters are going to go somewhere, whether into their own districts, or placed more against each other a la circa 2000. And as we noted above, as a whole, Texas is a R+8 state. This includes every district, from Mike Conaway's insanely red 11th District to Eddie Bernice Johnson's heavy Democratic 30th District seat.

For the here and now and the immediate future -- read, five to ten years -- the picture for Democratic re-realignment is bad, and there is no sugar-coating that.