Southern Re-realignment: Alabama

We are going to start with Alabama, which is appropriate since not only is it the first state in the alphabetical order, but it is also the state which inspired this series of posts (as the Wall Street Journal article was on the AL-02 congressional race). By many measures, Alabama remained a Democratic state, even after realignment began in full, though it has been supporting Republican candidates for President since 1964. Alabama's political leanings over time were developed in large part because of Governor George Wallace's lasting control and impact on the state, as well as the strength of old-school Senate Democrats like Senators John Sparkman and Howell Heflin. Like with many Southern states, Alabama held on until the 1990s, when Republicans captured both Senate seats for the first time since Reconstruction. Indeed, prior to Jeff Session's election in 1996, Alabama had elected only one Republican to the Senate since the Civil War, Jeremiah Denton, who served only one term from 1981 to 1987. Similarly, before Bob Riley's narrow win to take the governorship in 2002, Alabama had elected only two Republican Governors in its history, the first, Guy Hunt, winning in 1986.

It goes without saying that the state is virtually unwinnable in national elections. Bush carried the state 56-42 in 2000, but expanded his win to 62-37 over John Kerry. Alabama's geography is interesting, and telling of its polarization. The state is just a bit over one-quarter black, and that quarter votes overwhelmingly for Democrats and is mostly situated in the so-called "Black Belt" in the middle-south region of the state cutting across from the Mississippi border to the Georgia border. Aside from that region, Democrats have a tougher time throughout most of the state, though there are still Democratic enclaves in rural areas and in the Northern part of Alabama.

As I noted above, Alabama has a Republican Governor, Bob Riley, who is in the middle of his second term. Riley was first elected in 2002 over incumbent Democrat Don Siegleman by just 3,000 votes out of over 1.3 million cast. He easily won re-election four years later and remains popular, though he is term-limited in 2010. Of the state's six other statewide offices, Democrats hold two of them: Lieutenant Governor and Agriculture Commissioner. Interestingly, both houses of the state legislature are staunchly Democratic: the House is controlled by Democrats 62-43, and 23-12 in the Senate. This gives Democrats power to oppose any over-reaching by Riley, and also control over redistricting, though Alabama is not slated to win any new seats with the next census.

Both of Alabama's Senators are Republican, very popular, and unerringly conservative. The senior Senator, Richard Shelby, was a Democratic Representative and then Senator, but angry with Bill Clinton's politics and personality, he switched parties soon after the GOP took back Congress in 1994. At 74 years of age, Shelby is politically untouchable, and will easily win a fifth term should he choose to run again in 2010. While probably not quite as popular as Shelby, Senator Jeff Sessions is even more conservative, and may be the most consistently conservative member of the Senate. Up again for re-election this fall, he faces nominal opposition and will romp in winning a third term.

Alabama's congressional delegation is a bit more interesting. With seven congressmen, the delegation has five Republicans and two Democrats, and with the possible exception of one seat, the Third District, it seems as though all of the seats are reliably in the hands of the parties that currently control them.

The First District, held by third term Republican Jo Bonner is in the southwest corner of the state centered around Mobile, and at R+13, it is strongly Republican, despite being nearly 30 percent black. At 49 years of age, Bonner can hold this seat for as long as he wants. The Third District was that district that was carved out by the Democratic state legislature in 2002 to be competitive and winnable for the Democrats. Situated in a central-eastern strip of the state, it encompasses part of Montgomery, most of Montgomery County, and is one-third black. Mike Rogers first won the seat in 2002 by just 50-48, and has been able to hold it since. Democrats believe they have a credible candidate for the seat this fall in Josh Segall, but I would not believe the hype, and Rogers should win fairly easily. Perhaps in the future, the district could be winnable for the Democrats, as it is just R+4, but not now.

The Fourth and Sixth Districts are overwhelmingly Republican, with the Sixth being one of the most conservative districts in the entire country at R+25 (the Fourth is a mere R+16). At R+6, the Fifth District in the northern part of the state should conceivably be Republican, but it has elected Democrat Bud Cramer to Congress every two years since 1990, and before him several other Democrats. While Cramer surprisingly announced his retirement this year, the seat is poised to remain in Democratic hands as they were able to nominate a well-known state senator, and Republicans completely floundered in recruiting a credible nominee.

Finally, the Seventh District is the only safe Democratic seat in the state, with over 60 percent of its residents being black. Its representative, the moderate Artur Davis, a former Federal prosecutor, has his eyes on a future statewide run. Whichever way he goes, the seat will remain out of the GOP's hands.

That leaves on the Second District, the subject of that Wall Street Journal frontpage article we mentioned at the beginning. The district is just over R+13, and it is has been in Republican hands for many decades. Located in the southeastern corner of the state, and including both most of Montgomery and the rural part of the state known as the Wiregrass Region, the district has sent Rep. Terry Everett back to Congress comfortably since he was first elected in 1992. When Everett announced his retirement, Democrats were able to recruit Bobby Bright, the conservative mayor of Montgomery into the race, after he had been wooed by both parties (the mayoralty is a nonpartisan position). Bright faced only nominal opposition in winning the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans endured an extremely nasty primary that was decided by a very close run-off. Currently, polls give Bright an advantage, which should not be altogether shocking considering his high level of name recognition from being mayor of Alabama's second largest city, as well as the any enduring hurt feelings from the GOP primary. Still, in a district that is R+13, that any Democratic candidate has an advantage is fairly stunning.

State of Alabama's re-realignment. Early. If there is re-realignment in Alabama, it is at the beginning. Getting to the point where Democrats can contest the Senate seats is a long ways away. To be sure, things are not as bad as they may look. Democrats strongly control both houses of the state legislature, and it appears that two of the state's seven congressional districts are safely in their hands for the foreseeable future.

What are the next steps for Democrats? Well, for the immediate future, the best thing that could happen would be for Bobby Bright to win the Second District in November. Even though two recent polls (one of which is a Bright internal poll) have put Bright at up 10 points (with his opponent's own poll showing Bright down two), this seat will be a toss-up at best. It is simply too red. But is Democrats will ever win this seat, it will be this November, and if they succeed, not only could Bright hold on to it for a while, but it would be a tremendous broader victory for the party. Bright would be a very viable Senate or gubernatorial candidate down the road.

Looking past this year, Democrats should have two more objectives. The first is obvious: field a viable candidate for Governor in 2010. Governor Riley is term-limited, and the seat will be open. Democrats know the seat is winnable, as Alabama has elected a Democrat to the top job as recently as 1998. There are certainly a good number of possible candidate. Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom Jr. (the son of the former famous Governor), State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, Congressman Artur Davis, and perhaps even retiring Rep. Bud Cramer. While the Republicans would certainly have an advantage based on party ID, each of these men would be very strong nominees.

So far, Davis' name has gotten the most play, and he is certainly thinking about a run. Davis is very ambitious, and has had his eyes on running either for Senate or Governor, and he has built a fairly low-key and moderate record in the House. The big question is whether Davis can get elected statewide as a black man. That is a tough question to answer. A lot of people seem to support Davis' run, but I am not convinced he can win. After all, this is still Alabama, and even with the state's huge black population, like Mississippi, statewide voting generally falls along very racially polarized lines. To wit, John Kerry won the black vote 91-6 in 2004, but he lost the white vote 80-19. Davis would be a strong nominee, but he would have a tough time.

Controlling the governorship after 2010 would be very helpful for redrawing district lines after the new census comes out. If they were to hold the governorship and still have the legislature, Democrats' number one mission should be redrawing the lines in the Third District, assuming that Rep. Mike Rogers is still in office. The district is today only R+4, and perhaps with even more black of Democratic voters infused into the district, Democrats could finally oust Rogers.

In terms of the Democrat's holy grail, the Senate seats, the picture is murky at best. As we noted at the start, the junior Senator, Jeff Sessions, is up this year, and will easily win a third term. Given that he is not too old, another run in 2014 is not out of the question, and at that point, he would likely still be unbeatable. That leaves the other seat, currently held by Richard Shelby. Shelby next comes up for re-election in 2010, when he will be 76 years old. Given Shelby's age, and that he will have been in the minority for several years at that point (it is highly likely Democrats will hold the Senate this November and add at least 2-3 new seats), there is a decent chance he will opt for retirement. Should he retire, that Senate seat should be Democrats' top priority, perhaps even more so than the governorship, though likely less winnable. At that point, Sparks, Folsom, Cramer, and Folsom could all be viable candidates for the Democrats. Assuming he wins, Bright would be a tremendous candidate, but at that point, he will be just finishing his first term in the House, making it extremely difficult for him to mount a statewide campaign. Should Shelby retire and Democrats not put up a top-flight candidate, the seat will likely go Republican, and out of Democrats' hands for another generation.

Outlook

The Democratic outlook in Alabama is mixed. Looking forward one cycle to the end of 2010, the congressional delegation will likely be no worse than 5-2, with Democrats holding a good chance of winning AL-02 this fall and making it 4-3. AL-03 is probably more winnable, but will not flip unless and until Democrats put up a more spirited challenge to Rep. Rogers. In terms of the governorship, the latter should be hotly contested, but given the political dynamic, whoever the GOP puts up should be favored at this point. Even if Shelby opts for retirement in 2010, his seat will be tough to win, but the task will not be impossible.

Best case Democratic Outlook for 2010

A 4-3 advantage in the delegation (AL-02/03/05/07), control of the Shelby Senate seat (if retires), and a Democratic replacement for Gov. Riley.

Likely 2010 scenario

The GOP will hold at least a 4-3 delegation advantage (with a 50/50 chance or better of holding AL-02 at this moment), they will retain the Shelby seat whether or not the Senator retires, and the governorship will likely remain in Republican hands, but it is more likely to flip than an open Senate seat. The prospects for re-realignment in the form of winning a U.S. Senate seat are not good, but as will be seen, not nearly as bad as in other Southern states as Democrats at least have some semblance of a political bench given Artur Davis, Bud Cramer, Bobby Bright (if he wins in November), and the strong majorities for the party in the state legislature.