The Palin Pick: Big-risk, big-reward

Wow. Today I wish I had been wrong. Way back in June we wrote that John McCain's best choice for his running mate was the very dark horse, Sarah Palin. While writing that, we never figured he would pull the trigger. By not picking Hillary, Obama left himself wide open for this.

Today, the Republicans showed what makes them different from the Democrats: they have serious cajones. This a bold choice, though it is both high-reward and high-risk. Assuming all the reports are true, here's what the pick means, what it could do for both sides, and the implications going forward.

Benefits to the Palin pick

(1) This pick is immensely bold. The McCain Team threw out the political playbook on this one. Rather than go with a McCain ally, a seasoned political hand, or someone with any type of national profile, McCain grabbed a fresh face that is totally outside of the box. Perhaps more than anything else, picking Palin represents the McCain campaign's view that it needed to stir things up to make this a race. While the polls have been razor close or tied for weeks, the campaign came to the conclusion that to win against Obama in this national environment, it needed to take a gamble, to swing for the fences. And swing they did. Even as a Democrat, I respect that.

(2) McCain is making the ultimate push to exploit the Hillary wound. In taking this gamble, McCain is making a push for a big chunk of the female electorate, primarily those voters still irked at Hillary losing. As we wrote right after the Biden pick, by picking Delaware Joe, Obama left himself enormously wide open to McCain picking a female running mate. Perhaps Team Obama never seriously though McCain would do it, or maybe they just were not scared by the possibility; more likely, as we've discussed, Obama and his inner circle just never had any interest in tapping HRC. Well, what was a tiny possibility is now reality. McCain and his inner circle had decided to make a huge play for women and angry Hillary-ites. This is a titanic danger to Obama.

(3) Palin attempts to add some youth, vigor, and party excitement to GOP ticket. In addition to the plain political benefits Palin brings, she also adds some youth to McCain. Let's be fair: McCain is not terribly charismatic, and he simply looks old and slow. That is not meant to be an insult, it is fact. Palin could help balance that. She is young (44), telegenic (very pretty for a politician), and plainly vigorous (she has a large brood of kids, and just had another one months ago). But at the same time she is not too young to contrast too strongly with McCain's age. How this will play on TV should only help McCain.

(4) Palin is also an outside the beltway figure, which will contrast not just with Obama-Biden, but the GOP establishment. Palin was elected governor of Alaska in 2006 under a large reform banner, and ethics has been her signature issue for years. McCain can tap into both with this pick: ethics and national reform. McCain can appeal to people by saying Palin is outside of the beltway, and also that she has made cleaning up Alaska's corrupt politics her top fight. This could contrast nicely with not only Democrats, but the nation's politics in general.

(5) The pick could save a likely lost Senate seat. While this may seem like a small matter to many people, today John Ensign is smiling widely for a simple reason: Sarah Palin as veep could likely save Ted Stevens' Senate seat. With Palin on the ballot, not only is Alaska off Obama's radar, but it could unite enough voters to back the indicted and disgraced Stevens. Saving a Senate that could be lost for 20 years to the Democrats is a big deal. And Senate seats are a big deal, with the DSCC and NRSC spending tens of millions on U.S. Senate seats.

(6) Palin could excite the GOP base. By being pro-life, and having little record otherwise, Palin likely will not offend any key constituencies, and may, for the first time, excite what has been a down GOP base and get them out to work hard for the campaign. Right now, many Republicans are and should be nervous, but they likely also will believe they have a chance to win right now after what was an excellent Obama speech just last night.

There are also big risks to picking Palin

(1) Palin is grossly inexperienced. Before being elected governor in November 2006, Palin was mayor of Wasilla, a fast-growing Alaska community, but still only a town with only a few thousand people. Making the jump from being mayor of a few thousand to one step from the nuclear football in under two years is a big stretch, even though McCain is running against a man who became Senator in 2005. Obama has gravitas to push away inexperience accusations, Palin does not. This leaves the pick open to enormous criticism.

(2) Palin's good government credentials are currenly being soiled by a scandal back home. In recent weeks, Palin has come under heavy fire for firing Alaska's public service commissioner. As the story goes, the commissioner refused heavy pushing from Palin, her husband, and her administration to fire a state trooper who was in a nasty divorce proceeding with Palin's sister. This story has already undercut the governor's sterling ethics record, and has only begun to get bigger as the Democratically-controlled state senate has appointed an investigator to look into the matter. McCain clearly believes that the story is minor, and has no legs. Maybe Palin has reassured him that the scandal is really no scandal. If either McCain is wrong or Palin is lying, then she could be a quick and massive liability.

(3) Palin has no experience in foreign affairs and probably zero knowledge of major foreign or domestic issues, which could make her a liability on the stump. Palin is the polar opposite of Joe Biden. In a debate with Joe, she will likely get her clock cleaned. It is hard to imagine a larger chasm of experience between two politicians. Love him or loathe, Biden is 1000x more experienced and more knowledgeable about almost any salient issues. It is almost embarrassing how much more qualified Biden is than Palin.

(4) While a fresh face, Palin could be too fresh, and thus undercut McCain's message that he is a stable agent of experience who can protect America. McCain has clearly made "ready to lead" on day one the centerpiece of his campaign. Palin's complete lack of tangible and valuable experience is so great that it could severely undercut this message. In other words, how can McCain, who has been running on his experience advantage over Obama, all of sudden pivot and run in the other direction? It might fail miserably.

(5) Palin might not be ready for the bright lights of the campaign and frenetic pace of the race. Palin has never come anywhere near to what she is going to face over the next two months. Generally, she gives speeches to a roomful of people in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Wasilla. Now she is jumping to the national stage. Will she be ready?

(6) This pick only became an option a week ago, after HRC was not tapped, meaning that Team McCain really only made the big choice in one week. While they probably vetted her, the fact is that Palin would never have been picked if Obama had tapped Hillary. In other words, this pick was really made in the last few days, and there is a good chance Palin was not fully vetted or thought out as much as a veep should be. This could be a danger later if Palin is clearly not ready, or has some skeletons that went undiscovered.

(7) While he will want to, McCain will still have a hard time highlighting ANWR. We've seen in the last month that depserate Republicans are trying to highlight Democrats' refusal to drill as the reason for the deepening energy crisis. Few people are better positioned to talk about ANWR than Palin, who is obviously a big supporter. But McCain's past opposition to ANWR drilling will make it tough for him to change his mind right now, and if he does, he could open himself to attacks flip-flopping and making a big decision for politicial expediency.

(8) This pick could be seen a as cheap gimmick, and maybe ever a sign of desperation. That might be true. I wrote the same thing in June. This should be the immediate goal of Team Obama in framing the pick.

Will Palin's lack of experience matter?

In making this pick, McCain is hoping that his large swath of experience will cover up for Palin; in other words that he will get all the benefits of picking her, and very few of the downsides. I believe Palin will run heavily as a change agent, someone outside of the beltway. It might contrast with McCain's message, but they will have no choice. They will have to run this way. This pick might be a 40 yard pass, but McCain's people believed he had to do it. They did not believe they could win without taking a gamble, and this might be the ultimate gamble. The pick could fail miserably. But it could also bring scores of women to support the GOP ticket, both angry Hillary supporters and women in general. Anyone scoffing at this pick should remember one thing:

More times than not, people vote on emotion over logic.

This is precisely what Team McCain is counting on. Sure, Palin knows nothing compared to Biden, but that might not matter if she can appeal to women and run on change. Besides, that veep debate will likely not matter much. McCain is hoping Palin's lack of experience, her being from Alaska, the Troopergate scandal, and everything else will fall by the wayside, and her simply being young, attractive, and a woman will help him.

What Democrats need to do

Team Obama needs to do two things right now.

First, Obama needs to be on the phone to Hillary. Now. Already. He needs to tell her: "I need you on the trail just about every day to the end. I need you." Whatever it takes, Hillary's role takes on increased significance. Swallow your pride, and do what it takes, Barack. Show some LBJ, win-with-whatever-it-takes instinct.

Second, they need to ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK. All politics aside, all of my own politiical views aside, Team Obama needs to tear the bark off of this choice immediately, and rip it down. Palin is grossly, GROSSLY inexperienced. She has been governor for less than two years, and before that she was mayor of a town with less people than a few blocks of Philadelphia, PA. Obama's state senate district had more voters than Wasilla.

They need to methodically highlight not just her inexperience, but also extremist positions: her poor environmental record and strong pro-life views (both anathema to many women and Hillary supporters), her connection to the Troopergate inquiry and how hypocritical it reflects on her reform mantra, and other factors.

Attacking her will be tricky, but of anyone, Hillary can blast Palin. The pick should be called not just one of inexperience, but a DANGEROUS pick. A woman with this little experience has no business being one step from the nuclear football. Democrats cannot let the GOP frame this pick: they need to do it themselves, and fast. They should attack Palin as an inexperienced extremist, and not a sweet reformer.

Hillary and perhaps others should hone on these words: astonishingly inexperienced, anti-environment, mired in corruption back home, and dangerously inexperienced for a 21st Century world. McCain is particularly vulnerable as he has run as someone who can protect America, and Democrats -- read Hillary -- can say this is a choice made of pure political expediency, and it puts the country's security at risk.

One more thing: Team McCain will use these inevitable attacks against Obama himself by saying Palin is no more inexperienced that Palin, and that as a governor, she might be more experienced than Obama. Team Obama should welcome this, and let the people decide who has the experience to lead: Obama and Biden, both of whom can speak fluently on and to these critical issues, or Palin, who probably, seriously could not point out Georgia or Pakistan on a map.

Conclusion

This pick may fail miserably. I don't doubt that. But one has to admit this is a bold choice. McCain is swinging for the fences, and as a political follower, I respect that. With the Palin pick, Hillary becomes hugely important to Team Obama, and they need to swallow their pride reach out to her, if they haven't already.

In the coming days, things will develop a bit, and we can evaluate more then. But right now this is an astonishing pick, a smart pick, and I can assure you, both Team Obama and Team McCain are nervous right now.