The Aftermath of the Stevens' Indictment

We would be remiss without making a post on today's bombshell announcement that Alaska Senator Ted Stevens was indicted by the Department of Justice on seven counts of making false statements. This is huge news not just in Alaska, where Stevens is the state's most well-known and (until this year, at least) most beloved political figure, but nationally, where it will once again tarnish the national Republican Party. Ultimately, while the indictment will have minimal impact on the presidential race, it has titanic implications for the House and Senate races in the Last Frontier. Already, commentators, bloggers and political observers have been all over the map with this news, trying to predict what will happen to Stevens' Senate seat, and other matters.

Let's try to sift through what we know and what we don't know to try to figure where everything stands at this moment.

What we already know

(1) Stevens has been charged with seven counts of wrongdoing under the Federal false statements statute. These charges relate to Stevens' allegedly falsely reporting income and gifts he had received from VECO executives. The indictment alleges that Stevens exchanged a 1964 Ford Mustang for a new Land Rover in 1999, he received various gifts, and that over 2000 through 2006, VECO paid for and supervised renovations to his house in Girdwood, Alaska, among other things. Allegedly, Stevens failed to disclose this income on his Senate disclosure forms, constituting a Federal crime. As the Anchorage Daily News notes

The federal Ethics in Government Act requires all senators to file financial disclosures statements detailing their transactions during the previous calendar year, including the disclosure of gifts above a specified value and all liabilities greater than $10,000.

(2) The filing deadline to run for Senate passed almost two months ago, so no new Republican can run in the primary next month at this point. Right now, Stevens is facing five other candidates in the primary: Dave Cuddy, a former state legislator and longtime Stevens foe, Jerry Heikes, Rick Sikma, Vic Vickers, a man who just moved into the state but has vowed to spend heavily in the next month to win the primary, and Rich Wanda. Clearly, Stevens is not facing even a second-tier caliber challenger in the primary. Therefore, should he not drop out of the race in the next month before the primary, there is a chance he would win the primary, as the large anti-Stevens vote would be split among the unknowns. With Vickers vowing to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars over the next month, the challenger could win. Even if Stevens were to officially drop out of the race or even resign from the Senate, it appears that his name would still appear on the primary.

(3) Under Alaska state law, if Stevens were to win the primary vote and drop out at least 48 days before the general election (the drop-dead date would thus be September 17), the state Republican Party could name a replacement nominee to run under the party's banner in the general election. The relevant state law provides as follows

If a candidate of a political party nominated at the primary election dies, withdraws, resigns, becomes disqualified from holding the office for which the candidate is nominated, or is certified as being incapacitated in the manner prescribed by this section after the primary election and 48 days or more before the general election, the vacancy may be filled by party petition. The central committee of any political party or any party district committee may certify as being incapacitated any candidate nominated by their respective party by presenting to the director a sworn statement made by a panel of three licensed physicians, not more than two of whom may be of the same political party, that the candidate is physically or mentally incapacitated to an extent that would in the panel's judgment prevent the candidate from active service during the term of office if elected. The director shall place the name of the person nominated by party petition on the general election ballot. The name of a candidate disqualified under this section may not appear on the general election ballot.

So, Stevens could win his primary and then decide to drop out to give Alaska Republicans the opportunity to tap an untarnished candidate to try to save the seat.

What we don't know

This one is easy: we have no idea what Ted Stevens is going to do. What he does will determine pretty much everything. He could drop out of the race and signal his intent to retire when his current term ends, resign immediately from the Senate, thereby allowing Palin to put a placeholder in the seat for the remaining five months on the term, or do nothing, and defiantly continue running while arguing that he is innocent of all charges.

One thing is certain with regards to Stevens' Senate work. Under the rules of the Senate Republican Conference, if any Member is indicted, he or she must relinquish any committee chairmanships or ranking member positions they hold. Currently, Stevens is the ranking minority member on the Senate Commerce Committee and the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. If he does not resign, it appears that Stevens will be compelled to give up his perks of power pursuant to his own party's rules.

Predictions

The key to everything is what Ted Stevens will do. On the one hand, and as has been noted here several times, Stevens is incredibly stubborn and head-strong. He always has been, even as a young lawyer in Fairbanks, and spending 40 years in the United States Senate would add some weight to any man's ego. That Stevens even decided to file for another term in the face of a Federal investigation and having his house (and his son's office) raided by the feds was astonishing in itself, as such a situation likely would have led any other politician to just hang up his spurs. Clearly, Ted Stevens often does exactly what he wants. If Stevens were to announce that he was neither resigning from the Senate nor dropping out of the race, I would not be terribly surprised. It is in his nature, and people do not just change their nature on a dime, especially at 84 years of age.

However, I think this instance is different. I do not think that Stevens can survive this, and he and his family have to know that. He will not be a U.S. Senator at the end of the day on January 3, 2009, when the new Congress is sworn in. Stevens was already tied or down in all polls to Mark Begich when the corruption accusations were both general and vague. Now that he has been formally indicted by the Federal Government, his personal and political ratings back home will plummet. I have to believe that he will be convinced in one way or another to leave gracefully in order to better prepare himself for life after the Senate and on trial. of course, there is the chance he could lose his primary to a no-name, an extremely embarrassing prospect.

The GOP would try to save the seat with a hand-picked nominee after the primary. Exactly how Stevens does this is important. The best guess here is that he will drop his re-election bid sometime soon. This would give the Alaska Republican Party time to regroup and figure out who to run against Mark Begich. Even if Stevens could pull his name off the ballot, that would not be an agreeable option to the Party, as all of the other names on the GOP primary ballot are no-names who would be beaten by Begich. It may well be that Begich would beat any Republican right now, but he would be a shoo-in against any of the other current Republican nominees. Therefore, Stevens will stay on the ballot, likely win the primary, whether or not he announces his retirement before or after the primary happens, and the Alaska GOP will tap their best possible choice to hold the seat. My view is simply that the current options in the primary are all mud. This is no shock as no credible candidate thought he or she could knock out even a wounded Stevens in a primary before today. But the problem for Stevens' mediocre primary challengers is that not only have none of them distinguished themselves at all up to this point, but with Stevens getting all of the media attention (albeit negative) over the next month it will be difficult for any one of them to really stand out. In sum, then, it would be in the Alaska GOP's best interest to have Stevens win the primary, and then drop out to allow the GOP pick its own nominee.

Begich should now be favored against whoever he faces. While some people have already speculated that this is all bad for Begich, I disagree. At worst, Begich was a slight underdog against Stevens at this point. Against just about any other nominee, he should be the front runner for two reasons. First, Begich is no ordinary Alaska Democrat, as he has a huge war chest and near universal statewide name recognition. Second, the state GOP is now in absolute turmoil with Stevens' indictment. Whoever ends up being the nominee will bring baggage as an Alaska Republican.

Palin could win herself, but the indictments come at the worst time possible for her. This all includes the golden girl herself, Queen Sarah Palin, who is embroiled in the Troopergate scandal discussed here. While it is not clear how much this incident will end up hurting her image, it could not have come at a worse time for her. At this moment and time, she likely cannot drop herself into a Senate race. It would not work. Ditto Sean Parnell, the Lieutenant Governor, who is running for House. This puts the state GOP in a bad position for finding a replacement. As a result, I would call Begich the favorite right now over any conceivable challenger.

Don Young is absolutely toast. Ted Stevens' indictment also impacts the House race. Even before today, we have argued that Don Young was likely to lose to Sean Parnell in his primary, and even though he has not been indicted, Stevens' predicament is guilt by association for the longtime At-Large Representative. Even though Parnell has his own problems relating to Troopergate, they pale in comparison to the VECO scandal and Stevens' indictment. Republican voters will come to the polls in a month angry, and this mood will knock Young out, probably very badly.

Should Stevens decide to do nothing, and stay in the race, he too would be finished. Already slightly down in the polls against Begich, the Anchorage mayor's lead will likely go up exponentially now. As noted above, even if Stevens makes it out of his primary with the anti-Ted vote splintering among the five no-names, he would still have very little chance of beating a credible challenger like Begich with a Federal indictment over his head. The verdict: if Ted were to make it all the way to the general election, he would lose to Begich, but there is a chance he won't even make it past August.

No way Stevens resigns. It would be stunning if Stevens just resigned over this. He has spent most of his life in the Senate, and to leave months before his term is up would again, not fit his nature. Even if he decides not to stay in for re-election and fight it out, he will not simply resign. Personally, I would expect that if he decides to leave, he will do it in such a way as to preserve his own professional dignity.

So, I guess I see Stevens' bowing out quietly at some point, but we should not discount (1) the possibility of a primary upset if the backlash is particularly strong and someone like Vickers can jump out of the pack in the next few weeks; and (2) the possibility of Stevens being defiant and refusing to drop his re-election question at all. Already, his campaign has said as much, but that may just be posturing while they ponder their next move or exit strategy. Certainly, it will be hard for Sarah Palin or anyone to tell Ted Stevens what to do, and he likely would not listen to any calls from within the Alaska or national GOP calling for him to drop out. Something tells me that a lot is going to be happening in this race over the coming days and weeks.