There have been a couple of pretty big events in Alaska over the last 48 hours that are worth briefly covering which could have an impact on the two elections. The first one I mentioned at the end of Part IV of our series on Alaska, and it involved the Senate poll Rasmussen released showing Mark Begich with a 50-41 lead over Ted Stevens (52-44 if voters leaning one way or the other are included). The poll is certainly good news for the challenger, but as was noted in the post, the wider leader for Begich can probably be attributed to the fact that he recently went on the air with two commercials, and they had been running for about a week and a half when the poll was taken. Stevens' campaign has not gone on the air yet, though it is probably safe to say that pro-Stevens or anti-Begich commercials are not far away, probably immediately after the primaries on August 26. The poll results are certainly great news for Begich, and show that Stevens' support is much softer than it probably has ever been, but Democrats should not get too excited just yet. It's quite early.
The other news is probably a bit more interesting, and it could potentially impact the House race. It seems that Alaska's golden political star, Governor Sarah Palin has become embroiled in the first serious controversy of her tenure. Without providing any substantive explanation, Palin fired the state Public Safety Commissioner, Walt Monegan. Since then, Monegan has alleged that he was repeatedly pressured by Palin and Palin's husband to fire an Alaska state trooper who has been involved in a messy divorce with Palin's sister. Monegan believes his refusal to fire the trooper resulted in his dismissal. Both Palin and her husband have denied the allegations. Several members of the state legislature are looking at the allegations, and already, the Democratic chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee has said that an independent investigator will be brought on. In a further stroke that may make the situation worse for Palin, the man she hired to replace Monegan was revealed to have been investigated for sexual harassment. Apparently, Palin knew about the allegations too, but deemed them (and still deems them now) meritless. The scandal is already beginning to cause a firestorm, and several longtime Palin critics are arguing that it typifies Palin's general style of doing whatever she wants and steamrolling those who disagree with her.
Where the election could be impacted naturally involves Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, Don Young's Republican primary opponent next month. So far, as was discussed in Part IV, Parnell has not really run much of a campaign, and has basically tied his entire star to Palin's wild popularity in hopes that it will carry him to victory over Young. The hope of many Democrats is that if this scandal taints Palin enough in he coming weeks, it could in turn hurt Parnell to ensure that Young wins the primary. Most observers, this author included, believe Young would be the weaker opponent against Ethan Berkowitz in the general election.
The leading liberal blogger in the nation himself, Markos Moulitsas, posted about Palin's Troopergate last night, expressing these sentiments. He noted that he had heard that Parnell had already pulled any of his commercials featuring or mentioning Gov. Palin. He then went a step further in predicting that the scandal would cost Parnell's chances in the primary, and that Young would win August 26:
Yet without her, Parnell isn't [expletive] either. He's dead in the water. Young will win his primary in several weeks, and prove easy pickings for the Democratic nominee.
Kos raises some interesting issues, but he is probably way too optimistic, at least at this moment. It is entirely unclear right now if this scandal has any legs. While it got a lot of ink the day that it broke, it may not stay in the news. Furthermore, the matter may seem minor enough to not ultimately matter to many Alaskans, particularly the Republicans and general Palin fans that will be casting ballots in the GOP primary. In others words, Democrats should not get ahead of themselves.
Clearly, this can only hurt Parnell, no question, but it may not hurt him very much if it dies quickly. Democrats need to hope that it stays in the public eye in Alaska over the next month, and hopefully more unsavory details come out which could hurt Palin. If that happens, then Troopergate could just play into Alaskans' fears that the state is still consumed by corruption, and that even their white knight who was elected on a popular mandate of reform and change is not out for the best interests of the state. If that happens, then Democrats -- and Don Young -- will be able to smile. Let's just give the matter at least a few days or a couple of weeks before we all pronounce that the scandal has sunk not only Palin, but also Sean Parnell.
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2 comments:
mark - just think about your statement and apply it to the messiah 2.0. He'll have an even slimmer 'mandate' and an electorate with far less tolerance.
"fears that the state is still consumed by corruption, and that even their white knight who was elected on a popular mandate of reform and change is not out for the best interests of the state."
That is an interesting point, but only time will tell whether it applies with respect to Obama and the presidential race.
In terms of Alaska, I think we will get answer with regards to Sean Parnell in the next month. If hard work and actually trying to win based on one's own merits was the guidepost, Parnell would he would lose in a landslide August 26 considering that his campaign has, up to this point, consistently just about solely of tying himself to Sarah Palin.
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