A Titanic Primary Awaits if Sen. Kennedy Leaves the Senate (and no other Kennedy runs)

I have to be honest. When it was announced that Sen. Ted Kennedy had been diagnosed with a very serious brain tumor, one my first thoughts – after the initial shock and sadness – was to wonder what would happen to his Senate seat. While I am both hopeful and optimistic that Kennedy will make a strong recovery and not have to vacate his seat, from a political standpoint, given the unique nature of the Commonwealth – where there hasn’t been a vacancy in over a generation – a special election to fill a Massachusetts Senate seat could potentially become one of the most fascinating political battles ever.

Massachusetts is hardly alone in not having an open Senate seat in so long. In New Mexico, Sens. Pete Domenici and Jeff Bingaman have served together for over a generation, Charles Grassley and Tom Harkin have both represented Iowa in the upper chamber since 1985, and prior to Strom Thurmond’s retirement in 2002, he and Fritz Hollings had been together in the Senate for over 30 years. Similarly, Massachusetts elected a very young Ted Kennedy to his brother’s old seat in 1962 where he has been ever since, and it sent John Kerry to the Senate to replace Paul Tsongas in 1982.

The implications for this lack of movement may fall under the radar of most observers, but they are profound. Generally, the Senate is seen as the “big leagues” for many ambitious politicians and legislators, particularly those in the U.S. House of Representatives, which is generally a feeder for future Senators; indeed, in the current Senate, I count 48 Senators who served as House Members prior to coming over to the Senate. It is no secret, then, that many House Members aspire to getting elected to the Senate. This is especially obvious in states with larger congressional delegations where multiple state House Members may covet one of the state’s two Senate seats. Consider: when Theodore Francis Green was elected to the Senate in 1936, he was 69 years old, and it was expected by many that he would have a short stay in the Senate given his advanced age. Despite these prognostications, Green served four terms, retiring in 1961 at the age of 94. Think how many young politicians miscalculated Green’s time in the Senate! It is not hyperbole to say that many promising political careers have been destroyed when a Senate seat expected to open, did not.

In Massachusetts, there 10 House seats, many occupied by longtime congressmen who have harbored not-so-secret Senate ambitions. Yet, to the chagrin of many of them, neither Kennedy nor Kerry has left the upper body, with Kerry’s loss in the 2004 presidential election thwarting the probable plans of several Massachusetts politicians. Should Sen. Kennedy unfortunately have to vacate his seat before his term ends in 2012, it would represent an extraordinary political opportunity for many of these Reps.

This post will look at a potential special Senate election, and each of the people who could possibly run for Sen. Kennedy’s seat should it open up prematurely. For the sake of argument, let us assume that neither Kennedy’s wife, Victoria, or his nephew, Former Rep. Joe Kennedy, end up running. I concede right off the bat that either of them would be the odds-on favorite to hold the seat, but in the interest of advancing this interesting discussion, let’s say neither decides to run. After I have looked at all of the other players and their chances, I will conclude by breaking down the implications of a Victoria or Joe Kennedy candidacy on the race, should it happen.

State law provides for a special election. Massachusetts state law sets out a fairly unique way of filling open U.S. Senate vacancies. Most states give the governor the authority to appoint a replacement in the case of a vacancy, and generally the interim Senator serves until a special election can be held, generally at the next biennial election. For example, after Sen. Trent Lott resigned his seat at the end of 2007, Gov. Haley Barbour (R) appointed Former Rep. Roger Wicker to serve in the seat until a special election could held (which he ultimately scheduled for November 2008 to coincide with the presidential election). Massachusetts is different. While the state used to provide for a similar procedure, the state legislature changed the law in 2004 for nakedly political reasons. With John Kerry running for President as the Democratic nominee in 2004, Democrats were fearful that if Kerry won, the Republican governor, Mitt Romney, would appoint a Republican to the seat. Because the Democrats overwhelmingly control both houses of the state legislature, they removed the governor’s power to fill a Senate vacancy, and changed the law to stipulate that any open Senate seat would have to be filled through a special election within 145 to 160 days of the vacancy occurring. The law provides for a primary followed by a general special election to fill out the rest of the term. In the all-important (Democratic) primary, a majority is not required to win (as it is in many states including Mississippi), meaning that whoever snaps the highest percentage in a field, wins. (Interestingly, current Reps. Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, and Stephen Lynch each won their first Democratic primaries with much less than a 50 percent plus one victory total.) Consequently, if a special primary and election were to occur, we could ultimately seen the winner garner a paltry 25 percent or perhaps less if the field were large enough. Let’s now look at some of the players who could make up that field.

Rep. John Olver. Olver has represented the First District since 1991. The district makes up most of the rural and less populated parts of Central and Western Massachusetts including northern Worcester County, and nearly all of Berkshire, Hampden and Hampshire Counties. Olver has an interesting background, as he was a chemistry professor at MIT prior to getting into politics. Olver would be a very unlikely candidate, as he is currently 72 years old. He is virtually unknown outside of the rural parts of the state, and his base would not be a great one for a statewide run. If he did run, he would stand almost no chance of winning. Chances of running: Highly unlikely.

Rep. Richard Neal. Neal is the longtime representative of Springfield and southern Worcester County, and served as mayor of Springfield in the 1980s. Neal too is unknown outside of the Springfield area, though at 59, he would not be too old for a Senate run. Still, Neal has never expressed interest in a statewide run, and is probably content building on his seniority on the House Ways and Means Committee where he is fifth in line below the chairman. Chances of running: Fairly unlikely.

Rep. Jim McGovern. Elected in 1996, McGovern is the congressman for Worcester, the second largest city in Massachusetts. His district also stretches south into parts of Bristol, Middlesex, and Norfolk Counties. McGovern would undoubtedly have a great temptation to look at the race. He would have decent base in Worcester, and he has strong standing among many of the all-important liberal activists in the state. My sense is that he would ultimately pass, however, because he is currently vice chairman of the powerful Rules Committee, just behind the aged Louise Slaughter. McGovern knows that he will probably get the committee gavel once Slaughter is term-limited out in 2012 (assuming the Democrats still hold the House then). This would be a very tough thing to give up. Still, running in the special election would be a free shot – neither McGovern or any other Rep would have to give up their seat to run – and worth considering. Chances of running: Certainly possible, but unlikely.

Rep. Barney Frank. Frank has been representing the Fourth District since 1980. The district includes affluent parts of Middlesex County including Newton and Brookline and affluent cities in Norfolk County, and numerous parts of Bristol and Plymouth County in the southern part of the state. Frank would thus have a strong base of support to build on in his district. Furthermore, he is more well-known statewide, and is a hero among liberals who dominate Democratic primaries in the state. While Frank has harbored Senate ambitions in the past, his current post as the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee might make it unlikely that he wants to make a move. Frank would be a major contender if he decided to get in. Chances of running: Could go either way.

Rep. Niki Tsongas. Tsongas is the newest member of the delegation, having won the 2007 special election to replace Marty Meehan. Tsongas would bring statewide name recognition to the race, but she is already over 60 years old and has been in the House less than a year. I would not be shocked if she had Senate ambitions, and she might be able to do well based solely on her name (heck, that is the only reason she won her current seat in the first place), but she would face an uphill fight. She barely won her primary and general election in 2007 despite having universal name recognition and a large warchest. Quite simply, she is not terribly popular. I would put a Tsongas Senate run as unlikely. Chances of running: Would probably like to, but unlikely

Rep. John Tierney. Tierney is a guy I do not have much of a feeling for. He is a quiet Member, and unlike Reps. Frank and Markey, he has had a fairly undistinguished House career. However, given his mediocre committee assignments and seniority, he would be wise to explore a Senate run. The only thing he would lose would be his warchest, which is irrelevant since he will probably never face a serious challenge for his current post. Chances of running: Unclear, but he should.

Rep. Ed Markey. Markey is the dean of the state delegation, having been first elected in 1976 when he was just 30 years old. Markey has a strong liberal record, particularly on environmental issues. While Markey is over 60 years old, and he currently chairs the powerful Telecommunications subcommittee on Energy and Commerce, he would have strong reasons to make a run. He has had ambitions for higher office for some time, and as such, he has built a large warchest. Also, while he is very high on the E+C Committee, he is still below Rep. Henry Waxman, who is likely to take the gavel when Chairman John Dingell finally retires. If Markey were to ever make a go of it, a special Senate vacancy would be the time. Chances of running: Likely.

Rep. Mike Capuano. Capuano is another interesting one. He was the mayor of Somerville prior to winning the special election to what was Joe Kennedy’s seat (and before Kennedy, the legendary Tip O’Neill’s). He won a bruising primary over nine other opponents, many of them very strong, with 23 percent of the vote, so he knows what it takes to win hard-fought primaries. Further, he would have a strong base of support to build on as his district is the most liberal in the entire state including much of Boston and ultra-liberal Cambridge. But if Frank were to run, Capuano would probably have to forget a race, as Frank would eat too much into his Cambridge vote. I am not sure if Capuano has harbored Senate ambitions, so predicting a run by him is difficult. Chances of running: Unclear.

Rep. Stephen Lynch. Lynch was also elected to Congress in a special election. He won the Ninth District in 2001 after the death of longtime congressman Joe Moakley. Lynch is extremely ambitious, and has definitely had Senate ambitions in the past. Lynch won a State House seat and very quickly moved over to the State Senate. From there, he decided to run for Congress after less than a term in that body. Lynch has a solid base of support in South Boston, and his district also includes blue collar cities and towns in Norfolk and Plymouth Counties like Braintree, Brockton, and Norwood, as well as high-voting wards in Boston including West Roxbury, Hyde Park, and Dorchester. Furthermore, Lynch is the most conservative member of the delegation and could run as the moderate candidate in a field of all far left liberals. While MA Democratic primaries are dominated by liberals, as the only candidate staking out the middle, he might be able to capitalize. Chances of running: Likely.

Rep. Bill Delahunt. Delahunt comes from the blue-collar city of Quincy (pronounced Quin-Zee), and his district includes most of the cities south of there and the Cape. Besides Quincy, this would not be a good base to build upon for a statewide run. Delahunt is also 67 years old, and not known as particularly feisty or hard-working. I do not think he would be a good fit for a hard, statewide run. Delahunt is a hilarious guy, but probably not Senate material. Chances of running: Possible, but unlikely if he is smart.

In my opinion, I see runs by Olver, Neal, Tsongas, and probably Delahunt as fairly unlikely. Tierney and McGovern could run, but each is unlikely to make the plunge, though Tierney probably should. Lynch and Markey would be most likely to go for it, and Frank and Capuano could each be major players.

Moving beyond the members of the congressional delegation, there are a handful of others who could also make a run.

Gov. Deval Patrick. Patrick was elected governor in 2006, breaking the Republicans’ 20-year hold on the office. Despite coming into the office with much fanfare and a strong mandate from the voters, his tenure has not gone as well as was originally hoped. Quite bluntly, he has pretty much been a failure so far, and his approval ratings have suffered for it. Still, Patrick remains very popular among the liberal activists who propelled him to the nomination, and in my view his lofty rhetoric would be a much better fit in the regal well of the Senate than the backrooms of Beacon Hill. Even with his current low level of popularity, in a crowded field he could well win given his steady and wide liberal base of support. But Patrick has said he is staying (and probably waiting for an appointment to an Obama cabinet), and I actually believe him. Chances of running: Unlikely.

Lt. Gov. Tim Murray. Simply put, Murray is not Senate material, and would be a pretty mediocre candidate. Murray is probably waiting for Deval to go to Washington in an Obama administration. Chances of running: Highly unlikely.

Fmr. Rep. Marty Meehan. Meehan left the House in 2007 to become chancellor of UMass-Lowell, sick of waiting for a Senate seat to open up. Meehan drew the ire of many liberal activists when he held on to nearly all of his $4.5 million warchest. That he did hold onto all of that money is quite telling. While Meehan would have a hard time justifying a run to the trustees at UMass, this might be his last and best shot. Plus, he has a great base of support in Lowell and is a hard-working campaigner. Chances of running: Fairly likely.

State Attorney General Martha Coakley. Coakley is the popular state Attorney General. Prior to being elected, she was the District Attorney for Middlesex County, the largest county in the state. Supposedly, she has been eying a future gubernatorial run, but she would insane not to look at a Senate vacancy. She has statewide name recognition and popularity, and as perhaps the only woman in the race, she could have an enormous advantage. Chances of running: Unclear, but she should.

State Treasurer Tim Cahill. Cahill has already won statewide, so he could be a decent candidate, but he is a lightweight from everything I have heard and read. He too holds gubernatorial ambitions, but he would likely lose against Coakley if they went head-to-head. Chances of running: Unclear.

Secretary of State Bill Galvin. As the very long-time SoS, Galvin’s name has been bandied about as a possible statewide nominee for eons. He has never had the guts to pull the trigger in much lighter fields so he will almost certainly not have the stones to run in this field. Chances of running: Highly unlikely.

Chris Gabrieli. Gabrieli has made unsuccessful runs for Capuano’s current seat in 1998, as the Democratic nominee for LG in 2002, and for Governor in 2006. While he lost each time, he has built strong statewide name recognition for himself, and is still fairly well liked by voters. He is also immensely wealthy, and in a crowded field, he could self-fund. He is unlikely to run again, however, and being a three-time loser would not help his cause. Fair disclosure: I worked as field director for Gabrieli’s 2006 campaign. Chances of running: Unlikely.

Handicapping the race. As can be seen, the potential field would be wide, and full of Massachusetts political heavyweights. If even a fraction of these men and woman were to get in, the race would be a titanic battle. If there is a broad special election field, we would see a fascinating dynamic. I am not an expert on past special elections, but generally the way to win, at least with House seats, is to have the best, most reliable base. That's how Capuano (he won Somerville big while his opponents fought over Boston) and Lynch (Southie) won their seats in 1998 and 2001. Still, having a regional base in a crowded primary may not be enough for many of the interested Reps because all the reps will have that base. Therefore, it will come down to the candidate who has either the money or statewide name recognition.

The frontrunners. Only a handful of the possible names could best move beyond their regional bases. Frank could do that, ditto Martha, and maybe Deval or even Gabrieli. Frank is beloved by Massachusetts liberals, and would do well not just in his own district, but among liberals throughout the state, eating away at the other Reps’ bases, such as Capuano’s in Cambridge. Coakley could conceivably win solely by being the only woman in the field, and she could also scoop up moderates on her crime and law-and-order credentials. Deval, for the reasons already stated, could do very well in any larger field, despite his lousy record as governor. The question is whether he would have the guts to try to leave mid-term. Gabrieli would only have a chance if these three were to decline, and even then he would have an uphill battle as a three-time loser. Let me say that I do not consider Gabrieli a frontrunner, just someone who could enjoy large advantages given his previous runs and his large fortune.

The rest of the field. This is not to say that Markey, Lynch, Capuano, or Meehan could not win. I think each of them would be very strong nominees and could all contend under the right circumstances. Markey is pretty well known in the state, and would have a lot of money to run on. His dilemma would be that he has not run a competitive race in decades. At over 60 years of age and haven’t having run hard for so long, could he mount a successful run with a pack of hungry wolves? Personally, I don’t think so.

Lynch is a more interesting case. Lynch actually ran a tough race, albeit in 2001, and has a reputation as a very hard worker. I think he would probably be the hardest campaigner in the entire field. His district is also made up of wards and towns which generally turn out heavily for elections, so he would have a good base to start on. The question is whether Lynch could actually win to replace Ted Kennedy as the moderate. His pro-life views would undoubtedly bother liberal primary voters. Depending on how big the field is would determine how successful such a strategy would be. Based on sheer hard work and drive, Lynch would have a good shot in my book.

Capuano would be my dark horse in the race. Similar to Tierney, he has had a fairly quiet House career up to this point. But I was and remain impressed with how he beat a former Boston mayor to win his seat in that tough special election in 1998. Like Lynch, he is a hard worker and might have the drive that others in the field would lack. He would also have a superb liberal base with Cambridge and parts of Boston. His biggest problem would be Frank or Patrick, either of whom would steal large swathes of voters from his district if they ran. If Frank were to run, Capuano should probably sit the race out.

Meehan too would have a good base to start from, as well as perhaps the most money of all of the possible candidates.

Rankings for the contenders. For the purposes of simplicity I guess I would rank the nominees from strongest to weakest as follows:

(1) Barney Frank

(2) Martha Coakley

(3) Deval Patrick

(4) Mike Capuano

(5) Stephen Lynch

(6) Marty Meehan

(7) Ed Markey

I acknowledge that this list is intentionally too simplistic, and the overall electoral chances of each nominee depends on how the field ultimately shapes up. But for the sake of simplicity, I believe this order accurately illustrates the overall strengths each would bring to the table as a Senate nominee.

My ultimate prediction. If you put a gun to my head, my prediction would be that assuming Victoria or Joe does not run for the seat, Coakley would be the next Senator from Massachusetts. I do not see Frank ultimately giving up his Financial Services gavel, nor do I see Deval having the stones to make a run. That leaves Coakley, and I think regardless of who else she faces among the ambitious Reps, she would win given her statewide standing, and being in all probability the only woman in the race. Therefore, she would be nuts not to run. She would have a great chance in any field.

My general reading of a potential vacancy. My view on this entire scenario is that if it is a special election, you have no reason not to run. It is a free shot, and if you lose, you don't really lose anything since most of these Reps will never face a tough election anyway. Unfortunately a lot of these names would not see it that way. First, consider the laziness factor. With the exception of Lynch in 2001 and Capuano in 1998, none of these guys in Congress has run a tough race in 20 years, if ever. They are soft, fat, lazy. It is questionable whether many of them would have the guts to jump head-first into what would be a brutal, non-stop race. Second, even though several of the Reps have large warchests which they have stock-piled specifically for a future Senate run, many would be scared to finally take the plunge in spend it all. Sure, if they lose they will have safe seats waiting for them, but they all hate to fundraise, and any Rep who goes for it would know that that race would probably be it for them. If they spend what they have, it is probably gone forever unless they can force themselves to start raising again for when John Kerry finally decides to retire, if that ever happens.

Victoria and Joe. Now, as I promised, I will touch (briefly) on the possible candidacies of Victoria Kennedy or Frm. Rep. Joe Kennedy. Should either decide to run in honor of Ted (the Senator himself has supposedly told confidants that he wants his wife to take his seat should he pass on), either one of them would probably end up as the next Senator. I find it hard to believe that the state would not rally around the designated Kennedy and overwhelmingly put them in office. That Victoria has zero experience to merit being a Senator or that Joe is currently the spokesman for Hugo Chavez’s home heating program would be entirely irrelevant, basically as irrelevant as Ted Kennedy’s age was when he easily was elected senator over a more experienced opponent right around his 30th birthday. The entry of either Kennedy into the race would probably also scare away any ambitious potential entrant, forcing them to continue to wait for Kerry to leave. Sadly, I think it is extremely likely that this will happen. Should Ted Kennedy vacate his seat, he will probably be replaced by his wife or nephew.

To be perfectly honest, I find this possibility unfortunate. It would be ironic if Kennedy were replaced by either Kennedy, his wife particularly, but it would not be fair given her lack of qualifications. It would rob numerous more qualified people from the chance of running; though, admittedly, they could try if they liked, I just do not think they could win. And from a purely political selfish standpoint, a Kennedy run would probably block a truly fascinating special election from ever occurring. Still, that’s politics. Merits mean less than timing, money, or even your last name. C’est la vie.

Conclusion. While I think that one of the Kennedys will end up taking the seat if Sen. Kennedy leaves the Senate, I still think going over the possible field is both instructive and interesting. Sure, it is unlikely, but isn’t the whole point of political blogs and political discussion generally to go over hypothetical situations that will almost never happen? While I want Sen. Kennedy to make a full recovery, in the chance that he does not, his seat opening up could create an opportunity for numerous politicians to finally take a stab at fulfilling their greatest political ambitions.