New Jersey 2009: GOP Shouldn't Get Its Hopes Up

Next year, New Jersey will be one of only two states (the other is Virginia) to hold a governor's contest. The Garden State will also be host to score of state legislative races with varying degrees of importance (read: ability to potentially flip). As this article in the Philadelphia Inquirer details, state Republicans are optimistic and really, chomping at the bit to take out several Democratic legislators, and perhaps even Governor Jon Corzine himself.

While I can understand their exuberance, state GOPers should not get their hopes up.

Being a proud New Jerseyean, I will be the first to admit that we still enjoy the most corrupt political culture in America (no Illinois, you haven't taken that title from us yet: our politicians are just a bit better at not getting caught). Furthermore, I can acknowledge that Democrats have done a lousy job running the state, particularly Corzine, a man I find impossible to like or respect, and whose leadership is grossly lacking in many, many areas.

All of that being said, I would not expect many changes in the state's political make-up. First, as the article notes, the Assembly is intractably in Democratic hands, and any gains made by the GOP will be miniscule at best. The Republicans may even lose more seats. The State Senate, at 23-17, is much closer, but it does not appear, at least at this moment, that there are any great pick-up opportunities for the minority. While Trenton is loathed by just about all New Jerseyeans -- I think three, if not four Democratic state senators were indicted in federal court in the last year or so with two of them already being convicted -- achieving much turnover is difficult given the state's Democratic climate, the more resources Democrats will have at their disposal, and the districts truly in play.

The big prize is of course the governor's race. It may be hard to believe, but the New Jersey governorship is a very big deal. It is a big deal because the governor is likely the most powerful state executive in the nation, with control over just about every aspect of the state's operations. Republicans have been very bullish about their chances for some time. This optimism is predicated on two factors: first, Corzine's habitually low approval ratings; and second, a hope that outgoing United States Attorney Chris Christie, should he decide to run, would topple Corzine.

There is no doubt that Corzine is not exactly a beloved figure in New Jersey. Taxes remain high, corruption persists, and Jerseyeans will always have some lingering resentment for a charismatic-less politician who bought first a Senate seat, and then the governor's mansion five years later when he got bored of Washington and hungered for a better launching pad from which to one day run for President (that last one is a real laugh). However, none of this will likely cost Corzine his job.

As polls go, they mean nothing, especially this early. Fellow armchair political analysts not unlike this author like to attribute New Jersey's always-strange political polling -- where incumbents rarely break 50% and are often close with weak challengers -- to the residents' distrust of pollsters and polling. I disagree. Really, the issue is that while Jersey remains staunchly Democratic, its people rarely much like the sitting politicians, and this is reflected in initial polling.

That being said, it is one thing for Jerseyeans to express reservations about an incumbent Dem in January, and it is quite another for them to actually pull the lever for a Republican in the booth. There must be a strong reason for voters to toss out a statewide Democrat, something along the lines of former Governor Jim Florio's disasterious tax raise in the early 1990s which led to his defeat (though by only one point to Christie Whitman: a fact few people like to acknowledge) and the ouster of many Democrats across the state. At the present time, despite Corzine's bad personal ratings and his own weak record, I see no such seminal event which will back up his current weak numbers come November 2009.

In terms of Christie, I am unable to see him turning out to being much of anything. There's no doubt he has been a very successful U.S. Attorney, as his office helped convicted dozens and dozens of corrupt politicians across the state. For this he has gotten many accolades, nearly all of them deserving. However, in a state like New Jersey where there is no central media market, most people have no idea who the heck he is. Against someone like Corzine -- who has spent well in excess of $100 million to win his Senate seat in 2000 and the governorship in 2005, and will spend tens of millions in next year's campaign -- that is a bad combination for ultimate success. Republicans may be right that Christie is the best possible opponent for Corzine, but that still might not be good enough in a state like New Jersey. It is just too blue. And this is coming from a guy who is not yet sure he is voting for Corzine!