Artur Davis

It is never too early to focus on the next cycle, so we are going to start looking at the 2009 and 2010 contests in short order. One race that has fallen under the radar so far, and will probably not garner much attention until it happens is the Alabama's governor's contest which will be held in just under two years. With the governorship coming open (two-term Gov. Bob Riley is term-limited), there will almost certainly be a long line of candidates for the seat.

While this is Alabama, this is not a seat that Democrats cannot contest. Like a lot of strongly conservative states in the South and the West, Alabama voters may not like sending Democrats to Washington as U.S. Senators, but they have no problem electing Dems to the governor's mansion. Indeed, Riley's predecessor was popular Democrat Don Siegelman, who Riley beat by only a few thousand votes in one of the tightest races in 2002. In others words, don't write this one off just yet.

Anyway, the name I will be watching here is Rep. Artur Davis of the Seventh District (made up of the famous "Black Belt" of counties in southern Alabama). Davis, a moderate Democrat and former federal prosecutor is making it more and more clear that he intends to run for governor now that he has been passed over for the Attorney General's job. While Davis may face staunch competition from men like Lieutentant Governor Jim Folsom Jr. (a former governor himself, and the son of the very famous former governor "Big Jim" Folsom), and State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, the prospect of a black candidate for governor on the general election ballot is very intriguing. Despite his moderation, should Davis win the Democratic primary, it will be fascinating to see how well he is able to do in a conservative and Deep South state.

This is a race to watch. For what it is worth, I do not think Davis would be able to win in a state like Alabama where voting is generally deeply polarized along racial lines. Any strong showing by Davis would be an incredible job by the House member. The first polling will be interesting to see, but we should also wait to find out if Davis can navigate a potentially difficult primary first.