Calm Down, Carol

In the large class of foolish, over-ambitious politicians, we should add a new name today: congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, Democrat from New Hampshire's Second District. News is coming that Shea-Porter, who was just elected to her second term, is seriously considering running for United States Senate in 2010 against incumbent Judd Gregg. Wow. While we know that members of Congress tend to have incredible swell heads, this one really stands out.

Shea-Porter is definitely an interesting one. She scored perhaps the biggest surprise of the night in 2006, when she ousted Jeb Bradley 51-49 in a race no one thought she could win, including the DCCC. Last month, she beat Bradley in a rematch by a bigger margin, no doubt aided by Barack Obama's landslide in New Hampshire. However, I continue to believe that Shea-Porter is something of a fluke. She is not a terribly talented politician, nor are her approval ratings in her district that impressive. Sure, she won a formerly-held Republican seat, but whether she is ready for the even-bigger-time remains to be seen.

Shea-Porter is emboldened by GOP Sen. John Sununu's bad loss last month to Jeanne Shaheen. And also, no one can question that the Granite State has moved drastically towards the Democratic Party in the last few years. That being said, beating Judd Gregg is going to be very difficult. Gregg, who was once governor before being elected to the Senate in 1992, remains very popular in the state. His quiet, low-key style has played well for a while, and he has not committed any fireable offense (besides have an "R" next to his name). I will state on the record right now that unless New Hampshire has truly become a reliable blue state, Gregg would beat Shea-Porter head-to-head.

Really, the best -- and perhaps only guy -- who could beat Gregg is Gov. John Lynch, who may be even more popular than the senior senator. If Bob Menendez and the DSCC can coax Lynch into the contest, I think he's better than even-money to win. But Carol Shea-Porter is not John Lynch. I don't know who exactly has been whispering in her ear, and likely she is puffing out her chest after winning a second term, but I don't think she has what it takes to beat Gregg. And to be fair, I think the state's other rep, Paul Hodes, would also have a tough time winning. Dems today feel good about knocking off Gregg in two years, but they should not take him lightly. And they can start by convicing Shea-Porter to sit this one out and hold a seat she is lucky to have in the first place.