Louisiana

I wanted to comment on the two Louisiana House races from Saturday. It was not a great day for Democrats, but they can thank Bobby Jindal for that. In the Fourth District, the GOP nominee, John Fleming, appears to have won by 356 votes, or 0.3% over outgoing Caddo Parrish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. In an R+7 district, this was a tough loss for Democrats, as Carmouche was a very strong nominee who was well known in the district.

In the Second District, Republican nominee Joseph Coe (pronounced "gow") shockingly ousted longtime Democratic Representative William Jefferson, who had held the seat for nearly 20 years. For those who have forgotten, Jefferson has been under federal indictment for the last couple of years, and he gained some (likely unwanted) notoriety when authorities found wads of cash in his freezer. Nonetheless, he was re-elected two years ago.

So what happened in these two races? Simple: because these were special elections, turnout was pitifully low, particularly among black voters, the most vital Democratic base in a state like Louisiana. With the big race happening on November 4, these contests were simply ignored, and this killed Dems in both.

What does this have to do with Governor Bobby Jindal? Well, if you remember, when Hurricane Gustav was bearing down on Louisiana the week of the GOP convention, he ordered that the primary runoffs be moved. Consequently, the runoffs were moved to November 4, and the general contests were moved to December 6.

Make no mistake: the move was purely political, and aimed solely at Paul Carmouche. Jindal and other Republicans realized Carmouche would have been able to win on November 4, aided by huge black turnout for Obama. Creating a special contest in December almost guaranteed terrible turnout, and in a strong Republican district, that's a death sentence for a Democrat. It is a shame for Democrats, because Carmouche was the type of Dem who could have held the seat for a decade, but that's politics, and I can't say I would have done it any differently if I was Jindal.

And let me add that I am not trying to downplay the significance of a hurricane, especially in a place like Louisiana. I have no doubt that Jindal only wants to protect his state and its citizens. That being said, I also have zero doubt that being able to move the general election for the Fourth District was also squarely in Jindal's mind, and a major consideration. So for anyone who would be offended by my arguing that Jindal had political motives in moving the contests, wake up and smell the coffee.

In terms of the Second, this is not a GOP district. In fact, it is the only Dem-leaning district in the state because it was gerrymandered to be the state's majority black district. Centered around New Orleans, the Second is PVI D+28. To give you some context for that, the reddest district Dems currently control is R+18. Prior to Saturday, the bluest district a GOPer currently held in Congress was D+7. In other words, this is not a district the GOP should ever win in its wildest dreams, and there is absolutely no chance the Republicans can hold it in two years.

In fact, if I was Mr. Coe's advisor, I would have a simple piece of advice for him: switch parties today and then go to the Democratic leadership and beg them to accept you. Plead. Coe cannot win re-election in two years. It's impossible. What he can do is switch parties. While I think he would lose there too -- he would almost certainly be felled in a primary by a black candidate in a district that is almost two-thirds black -- at least he would have a chance. Perhaps he can survive in similar fashion to Rep. Steve Cohen. Cohen, if you remember ran as the only credible white candidate in a large Democratic field of black candidates for Tennessee's Ninth District, which is based in Memphis. However, the difference there was that (1) Cohen was a true -- and liberal -- Democrat; and (2) Cohen had been a state senator from the area for 20 years and was thus well known in the community whereas Coe has negligible ties in New Orleans.

Indeed, if Coe switched parties tomorrow and was accepted into the caucus with open arms, in two years the DCCC would not give Coe a nickel. Why would it spend money in a safe seat that it knows will flip back anyway? Plus, the DCCC and many Democrats would assuredly feel pressure from the Congressional Black Caucus and black leaders in New Orleans to return the seat to a black representative. In other words, Coe is [bleeped]. Do I expect him to even try to switch parties? Absolutely not, because such a move would show political foresight, and I wouldn't expect a political fluke to have those kinds of instincts.

By the way, there is zero chance the Democrats would ever approach Coe to switch. The CBC would be livid if leadership backed a Vietnamese guy over any black candidate. I am not saying that is right, but that is how the group would react. A lot of black members backed Steve Cohen's primary opponent this year for heaven's sakes, and again, Cohen had ties in Memphis and TN-09 is not even as Democratic as LA-02. Black national leadership would not stand for any institutional support of Coe -- a man who has never been a registered Democrat anyway -- and this is a fight Pelosi would want no part of, considering she already had a battle when she kicked Jefferson off of Ways and Means and another one when she denied Alcee Hastings the Intelligence chairmanship. Facing the possibility of having to boot Rangel, this is a fight she won't touch with a ten-foot pole.

Interestingly, I actually think Democratic leaders are today pretty delighted with the stunning results in LA-02. For years, Jefferson has been a thorn in their side, as he has refused to resign in the face of a damning federal indictment, and he even refused to quit his post on the powerful Ways and Means Committee; he was ultimately removed in a move that angered the CBC. While Republicans like Tom DeLay, Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney, Tom Feeney, Don Young (and a cast of thousands) have come under scrutiny or indictment, Jefferson has represented the worst of Democratic corruption, and has somewhat undercut the party's ability to attack Republicans for ethical lapses. Jefferson's amazing ability to win re-election two years ago -- not to mention a primary challenge -- infuriated Democrats, and after he won his primary this year, they were resigned to having him in the House for two more years.

Really, for this reason, Jefferson's defeat is actually a very good series of events for Democrats. The worst thing possible for the majority side would have been to have had Jefferson in the House when he was convicted. And given his intransigence so far, I figure he would have stayed until the bitter end, after a conviction up until the word "expulsion" was seriously invoked. Jefferson's defeat now removes the possibility of that bad publicity hitting the Capitol at an inopportune time. It is one thing to have a scandal like this in 2005 or even 2007, but in 2009 or 2010, something like this would be imputed to both Democratic majorities in Congress and to the White House, where a Democrat will be. For this reason, it is easy to see why Jefferson losing Saturday was a good thing for Dems.

Sure, watching a Republican hold such a liberal seat is annoying for Democrats, but Dems know it will be theirs again in two years. And that extra win will even help the DCCC pad its numbers the morning after in 2010 when seats almost certainly will be lost in aggregate. The party should be much more upset about the Fourth District, as that was a GOP seat that was just red enough that Carmouche could have stolen it for them for the long haul.