Bad Idea

In the aftermath of the Blagojevich bombshell, several Democrats are typically overreacting with a potentially bad idea. Senator Dick Durbin has called for the Illinois state legislature to strip the Senate appointment power from the governor, and allow for a special election to fill Barack Obama's now-open seat. Such a move, if executed, could possibly cost Democrats the seat.

Right now Illinois voters are likely very angry both at Democrats, and at Chicago politics. If there were a special election, anything would be possible. A special election would be a free-shot for sitting congressmen, so we could expect a free-for-all between numerous ambitious pols. In my view, a worst-case scenario for Democrats would be if someone like ultra-liberal Chicago Reps. Jesse Jackson Junior or Danny Davis were to win the Democratic special primary. If someone like Mark Kirk were to run as a Republican, he could well beat either way. Reps like Davis and Jackson are way too liberal. That, combined with the anti-Chicago sentiment now blowing through the state and a potentially quality candidate from the Republicans could be enough to turn the seat.

If I was adivising Mark Kirk, I would tell him to get into a special election. He is moderate, very popular in his Democratic district (he just won re-election overwhelmingly in a year when Obama was on the top of the Democratic ballot), and he can raise big money. A Kirk-Jackson match-up in early 2009 would cause some heartburn for Dems.

Look, I realize all of this is unlikely. A special election would cost tens of millions of dollars, and it would take action on the part of both houses of the legislature. We all know government moves slowly, even in times of crisis like this. I don't expect the state to make this change. Furthermore, the Illinois GOP is in shambles today, and their bench is almost empty. Someone like Kirk may not even want to run.

But I do think that the extended discussion of the move by Democrats is an overreaction we've come to expect from politicians incapable of thinking ahead. If they are wise, proponents of a special election will come to their senses, and allow an appointment, likely by the governor's successor. In that case, the appointed individual -- hopefully of good quality -- can strengthen him or herself for two years, by which time the public has gotten a bit over this mess. Allowing for a special would be a big political mistake, even in a blue state like Illinois.