John Lynch

There is little question in my mind that New Hampshire Governor John Lynch is going to become a punching bag for many Democrats over the next few days after he appoints a Republican to fill out the final two years of Judd Gregg's current Senate term. Lynch, who apparently agreed to appoint a GOPer to the seat at the behest of Gregg, will be criticized by both state and national Democrats first for making a deal with Gregg, and second for slotting in a Republican despite his own party affiliation as well as the quick leftward movement of his state.

In my opinion, much of this criticism has been, and will continue to be wrongheaded, while some of the broader attacks on the guts of the Democratic Party is spot-on. In terms of the specific upcoming appointment, irate observers need to keep two things in mind. First, Lynch did not have much choice in this matter. If he did not give Gregg his assurances that the Senator would be replaced by a fellow elephant, Gregg likely would not have taken President Obama's appointment and would have stayed in his seat in order to prevent Democrats from getting to 60 seats in the upper chamber. Despite their party differences, having Gregg in the cabinet is a net plus for New Hampshire in terms of politics and plain pride, so it certainly is a good appointment from Lynch's perspective. Therefore, he made the deal, and I do not blame him for it.

Second, despite the momentary setback of having Gregg being replaced by a Republican, this is still a big net plus for the Dems in the longterm. As we have discussed ad naseum, Judd Gregg remains the most popular current Republican officeholder in New Hampshire. Had he run again next year, he would have certainly been more beatable than he ever has been, though he still would have been a slight favorite against Rep. Paul Hodes (who today announced he was running for the seat next year, not a big surprise). In other words, the seat was within the Democrats' grasp, but hardly a sure thing. By getting Gregg out of elected politics, Democrats now have a much easier shot at the plum office. I would go so far as to say that Hodes is now the favorite to be New Hampshire's next junior senator, given his own strengths and the state GOP's weak bench. So, Dems should not be too upset here: that kind of mindset is greedy and short-sighted as it relates to the seat itself.

Of course, all of this assumes that Lynch will appoint a placeholder to the seat who will not run for a full term next year. All indications are that that will happen, but if it does not, the entire calculus changes, not just for national Democrats, but for John Lynch himself. If Lynch were to tap someone who eventually ran as an incumbent, it would infuriate Democrats and end any national future he might have had before this saga. It would make much of this post moot.

One more point on all of this. Clearly, I have sympathy for John Lynch here. He is in an impossible position where no matter what course of action he takes, he will piss off one side. If he were to appoint a Democrat, Republicans would be apoplectic that the governor was taking a seat New Hamshirites had elected a Republican to, and given it to a Democrat. For a man who styles himself as strongly bipartisan -- as evidenced by his past behavior, and his enormous victory margins in his last two elections -- that kind of reaction would have been anathema. On the other hand, by appointing a Democrat, Lynch would undoubtedly bother his own party both in Corcord and Washington, DC.

All of that being said, I find it impossible to envision the Republicans honoring a similar agreement and arrangement if the roles were reversed. There is no way on earth any Republican governor (short of Vermont GOP Gov. Jim Douglas--maybe!) would appoint a Democrat to a seat where his party in Washington controlled 59 Senate seats. Of the two parties, only the Democrats would show this lack of gumption in such a political situation. As my old boss used to say, and admiringly, "Republicans' DNA is just different than Democrats'." And I make this observer too with admiration, not disdain!