Strickland's Clout

Three small news items over the last week have helped draw a clear picture of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's enormous clout in the state with his re-election looming next year along with an important open-seat Senate contest.

First came a piece which said that Strickland was strongly backing his Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher for the Senate seat, going so far as to lightly pressure Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner not to make the race. Then came polls showing Fisher owning a slight lead over Brunner in the prospective Democratic primary for the seat. Finally, today Quinnipiac has a poll out showing Strickland with a 60/19 favorable unfavorable split, and whooping 20+ and 30+ point leads over his two most dangerous prospective general election nominees, former Sen. Mike DeWine and former Rep. John Kasich.

The morale of all this? Ted Strickland is the unquestioned king of Ohio politics right now, and what he says and does will hold a great amount of weight not only in his own race, but in the Senate contest as well. It's my opinion and the opinion of other observers that Lee Fisher is not Democrats' best nominee for the Senate seat. Personally, I think Rep. Tim Ryan would be a great general election nominee -- his pro-life, pro-gun views gibing very well in Western Ohio in a general -- while I have to acknowledge I know very little about Brunner's politics or general disposition. Fisher, the former state Attorney General before joining Strickland's ticket in 2006 is alright, but he had statewide runs for office before, and is not that young (58 years old). Additionally, despite his long-standing presence in Ohio politics, he is not terribly well known across the Buckeye State.

Yet, all of this will likely be irrelevant if Strickland continues to swing his influence around both in the Senate primary and the 2010 general elections. It will be hard for Brunner (not to mention Ryan, and any other interested people who may not be out there) to defy the very popular governor and make a run if he actively backs Fisher. Furthermore, while Fisher may not be the best choice out there, with Strickland at the of the ticket above the Senate match-up next year, that may not matter if the governor is able to provide a big boast to rest of the 2010 Democratic ticket by winning decisively. In 2006, Strickland's massive victory certainly helped out then-Rep. Sherrod Brown who toppled then-Sen. DeWine by a larger margin than expected (though, of course, that 2006 was a strong year for Democrats across the country must be acknowledged).

If Fisher were to win, he would be Ohio's first Jewish Senator since Howard Metzenbaum, who held the other Senate seat before Mike DeWine won it and 1994.