Dodd in Danger? Nope

One of my favorite political writers, Steve Kornacki of the New York Observer, has a piece this week wondering aloud if recent weak poll numbers portend trouble for Connecticut Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman. While I have already recently written on Lieberman, I wanted to say a quick word on Dodd.

While the recent Quinnipiac poll gives Dodd a ghastly 41/48 approval rating, I think there is almost no danger that the senior senator will lose next year, minus some crazy scandal coming out. There are three simple reasons for this. First, Dodd is a state institution in Connecticut, and even if his numbers are low now, and even if they are low in 18 months, I find it hard to see Connecticut voters tossing him to the curb. Second, Connecticut remains an ardently blue state, and it has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Lowell Weicker won in 1982. Third, and perhaps most important is that the GOP bench in Connecticut is basically barren. As we like to say here, you can't beat something with nothing, and the state GOP has essentially nothing. Former Reps. Chris Shays and Rob Simmons might be good nominees, but just remember they lost House races in 2008 and 2006, so I can't envision them winning a statewide contest

If ultra-popular Gov. Jodi Rell were to shock the establishment in Hartford and run for Senate, then maybe Dodd could be in trouble. But until that happens -- and I think it remains highly unlikely as she will probably run for governor again -- Dodd is safe.