Onward to the General

One of our favorite pollsters, Public Policy Polling is out with a new poll this week of the Virginia gubernatorial Democratic primary between former state Del. Brian Moran, state Sen. Creigh Deeds, and Democratic fundraiser and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, and the poll gives some strong news to McAuliffe with the campaign just getting under way. The poll shows the former DNC chair tied with Moran at 18%, and Deeds further back at 11%.

The reason this is good news is that whereas Moran has been a longtime political fixture in northern Virginia and has high name recognition (also in part because his brother James is a Congressman), McAuliffe got into this race as a complete unknown in Virginia except to the most diehard Democratic politicos. Indeed, part of McAuliffe's early showing here is due to the fact that he started airing commercials last month -- an unprecedented early opening for a primary that falls in June -- which have undoubtedly bolstered his name recognition.

While the race is still extremely early and this poll has an immensely high undecided number (not to mention, it gives McAuliffe higher negatives than both of the other two candidates), I expect McAuliffe to win the primary. I feel this way not because McAuliffe is a better candidate or politician than the other two, but rather for the simple reason that he is a spectacular fundraiser, and as the early commercials evidence, he will raise tens of millions of dollars in this campaign that Moran and Deeds will be unable to come close to matching. Central to Moran's and Deeds' campaign strategies will be to label McAuliffe a millionaire carpetbagger who is trying to buy the governorship, but unless they can raise a mint of money or hijack a couple of Brinks trucks, they are going to face tough sledding. You can bet your bottom dollar that neither of them will be on the air any time soon. Consequently, I see McAuliffe heading to the general election against state Attorney General Bob McDonnell.

Even this early, we can already turn our sights to the main event. In one corner, McAuliffe will raise a zillion dollars and run aggressively and gregariously (as is his personable nature), and in the other McDonnell will run on high name recognition and a strong law-and-order resume, but he is more polished than 2005 race loser and AG predecessor Jerry Kilgore. At this point, I would give the edge to McDonnell because he will be able to raise and spend a good amount of money, although certainly not in McAuliffe's neighborhood. Additionally, with the Virginia GOP having lost the last two gubernatorial races, as well as both U.S. Senate seats, three House seats, and the State Senate, the party is very hungry and determined to win back the governor's chair, especially with redistricting looming in 2011.

However, I think the biggest reason that McDonnell should be favored right now is because of McAuliffe's baggage as a plain fundraiser and a carpetbagger. Virginia is certainly not the state it was ten years ago when connections to the Clintons would be immense liabilities that a politician would run away from, but McAuliffe is still not running in New York. And McDonnell is certainly going to run on these themes. Then again, if McAuliffe ends up raising $80 million, it might not matter what McDonnell does.

We will all follow this one closely since a Democratic victory will signal the completion of Virginia's transformation to a blue state. And let me also state that my prediction here may not be worth a great deal since I foolishly guaranteed in 2005 that Kilgore would beat Tim Kaine who I preceived as too liberal to win statewide. Virginia may well just be blue enough now for a run-of-the-mill liberal Democrat to win. We'll see.