NJ-Gov: Did I Say That?

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post assessing Republicans' chances of toppling Gov. Jon Corzine in this year's gubernatorial race in New Jersey, scoffing at likely GOP candidate Chris Christie's odds of knocking off the deep-pocketed governor and former senator. Well, on the heels of a new poll showing Christie ahead of Corzine by a healthy six points (44-38) -- and Corzine sporting some pitiful personal splits -- I wanted to take a moment to amend my initial thoughts/predictions.

Do I still think Jon Corzine will be re-elected this November? Yes. Should I have foolishly dismissed Republicans' chances so early and out-of-hand? No. The fact is, as I have kept saying, Corzine has never been personally loved, or even well liked in the state. I glossed over this very important fact too quickly. The national financial crisis, combined with lingering high tax issues in the Garden State make 2009 a sticky year for any one to run for re-election, much less a former Goldman Sachs head who ran on a platform of bringing business savvy to Trenton. As a successful former U.S. Attorney for the state for successfully indicted bushels of high profile defendants over the last eight years, Christie can conduct more of an outsider's campaign, and as a result, his chances should not be dismissed, even if his candidacy has its own share of warts.

But there's another reason I have reassessed my initial views of this contest. One of my very key assumptions in predicting a Corzine victory was that like in his 2000 and 2005 contests, the governor would spend whatever it took to edge Christie; indeed, Corzine spent over $100 million to win those two campaigns, the first by a close margin and the second in a blow-out. However, as a couple of articles I have read pointed out in passing, given the brutal national economy, Corzine may no longer have the willingness or even the full ability to write a blank check for this race. This would be a huge break for Christie, as Corzine's greatest asset is his ability to blanket over his weaknesses with cash. If Corzine can't break the bank this time around, Christie won't need to raise as much in order to maintain a his own comfortable presence. Right now, to my mind, that might be Christie's biggest hurdle: namely, raising the tens of millions of dollars necessary not only to keep pace with Corzine, but also run a solid air war in perhaps the most expansive place in America to run statewide (New Jersey has no central media market, so for candidates to become known, they must buy ads in the New York and Philadelphia tv markets which hit the state).

So, what's my overall view right this minute? Given New Jersey's recent electoral history -- perhaps more aptly put as Republicans' string of losses in the state -- Christie and the GOP still face an uphill fight in ousting Corzine. Even if he cannot spend $70 million, Corzine won't be running a J.C. Penny campaign; for Corzine, it is always going to be a Cadillac effort. Consequently, despite the early dire polling, Corzine has an edge. I just no longer feel it as strong or deep an advantage. Chris Christie absolutely has a very good chance of winning.