I wanted to write a post looking at some of the more surprising (or put less diplomatically, stupid) votes case by House Members in the stimulus conference vote. We all know by now that the Republicans voted in unison against the measure, but I think it is worth looking at some of the more stand-out votes on both sides of the aisle.
Noteworthy Democratic Votes
Democrats voting 'no' on both the initial vote and on the conference bill: Walt Minnick (ID-01), Bobby Bright (AL-02), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Collin Peterson (MN-07), and Parker Griffith (AL-05).
For the most part, Democratic House leadership should not be too upset at these individuals, as most of them represent strongly Republican districts. Taylor is a very conservative Democrat and somewhat iconoclastic, but he represents one of the reddest districts in the Deep South (McCain won here 68-to-32), so it is tough for Democrats to ever criticize him, even if he is safe at home. Bright and Minnick were just barely elected last year (Bright by less than one percent and Minnick by less than two percent) in incredibly Republican areas. Leadership can't say anything about that. Griffith is also a freshman (he won by 52-46 in what was an R+6 district in Northern Alabama), but his district is slightly less red than the rest. Still, it would be hard for leadership to punish him in any way.
The last two names should draw the ire of Democrats. Peterson is very quirky, and he often votes with Republicans from his conservative Western Minnesota nest. This has been tolerated for some time, in part because the rural district is R+7 (according to the latest PVI), but Obama only lost here 50-to-47; in other words, this district is hardly Southern Mississippi. Furthermore, the seat is safe for Peterson until he retires (which he has threatened in the past). As the chairman of the Agriculture Committee, Peterson should begin to watch himself a bit better, or as my friend wisely noted to me, he could face a Dingell problem down the road.
Ditto second-term Rep. Shuler, who voted against after winning 62% last year. I imagine the leadership is fuming at the Western North Carolina congressman right now, particularly when they consider Shuler's strength at home coupled with Obama's narrow 52-to-47 loss in the Eleventh District. Shuler, who is considering a run for Senate next year against Richard Burr might have really helped potential primary opponent state Attorney General Roy Cooper's case with national Dems with this vote.
Democrats voting 'aye' on the conference bill who come from districts that John McCain won last year: Marion Berry (AR-01); Vic Snyder (AR-02); Mike Ross (AR-04); Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01); Harry Mitchell (AZ-05); Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08); John Salazar (CO-03); Betsy Markey (CO-04); Allen Boyd (FL-02); Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24); Jim Marshall (GA-08); Brad Ellsworth (IN-08); Baron Hill (IN-09); Ben Chandler (KY-06); Charlie Melancon (LA-03); Frank Kratovil (MD-01); Travis Childers (MS-01); Ike Skelton (MO-04); Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL); Harry Teague (NM-02); Mike McMahon (NY-13); Eric Massa (NY-29); Mike McIntyre (NC-07); Charlie Wilson (OH-6); John Boccieri (OH-16); Zach Space (OH-18); Dan Boren (OK-02); Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03); Jason Altmire (PA-04); Chris Carney (PA-10); John Murtha (PA-12); Tim Holden (PA-17); John Spratt (SC-05); Stephanie Hersheth-Sandlin (SD-AL); Lincoln Davis (TN-04); Bart Gordon (TN-06); John Tanner (TN-08); Tom Periello (VA-05); Rick Boucher (VA-09); Alan Mollohan (WV-01); Nick Rahall (WV-03); Chet Edwards (TX-17) and Jim Matheson (UT-02).
This list includes a pretty good mix of veterans representing pretty red districts, old-timers representing very red districts, and freshman from a smattering of both.
Salazar, Hill, Marshall and Edwards deserve some special recognition because they are usually loyal even though they have district where they could always face a tough contest. Freshman and young members Kirkpatrick, Markey, Kratovil, Childers, Teague, Dahlkemper, Carney, and Periello should all be remembered later for casting what was a tough vote. Most of these names are young members who represent red districts, especially Childers, Teague, Periello, and Kratovil. They all showed some guts, and I am guessing their loyalty was noted by Pelosi and Hoyer.
Noteworthy Republican Votes
Republicans voting 'no' on the conference bill who come from districts that Barack Obama won last year: Dan Lundgren (CA-03); Elton Gallegly (CA-24); Buck McKeon (CA-25); David Dreier (CA-26); Ken Calvert (CA-44); Mary Bono-Mack (CA-45); Tom Campbell (CA-48); Brian Bilbray (CA-50); Mike Castle (DE-AL); Bill Young (FL-10); Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18); Tom Latham (IA-4); Peter Roskam (IL-6); Mark Kirk (IL-10); Judy Biggert (IL-13); Don Manzullo (IL-16); Aaron Schock (IL-18); Joseph Cao (LA-02); Dave Camp (MI-04); Fred Upton (MI-06); Mike Rogers (MI-08); Thad McCotter (MI-11); Erik Paulsen (MN-03); Lee Terry (NE-02); Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02); Leonard Lance (NJ-07); Peter King (NY-03); John McHugh (NY-23); Pat Tiberi (OH-12); Steven LaTourette (OH-14); Jim Gerlach (PA-06); Charlie Dent (PA-15); Randy Forbes (VA-04); Frank Wolf (VA-10); Dave Reichert (WA-08); Paul Ryan (WI-01) and Tom Petri (WI-05).
This is another interesting list to pore over. Some of these votes are not only understandable from the rep's perspective, but they make cold political sense. There are also a lot of stupid votes here, many of them cast by short-sighted Members who could face a problem later for their hyper-partisanship.
Freshman: Not a lot of names here, mostly because the GOP did not win much last year. When it comes to freshman, they pretty much have to obey leadership early on or risk excommunication to crummy committees and other slights. Additionally, with men like Paulsen and Lance, they won their first terms so easily, they probably feel emboldened to oppose Obama even if their constituents voted for him. The same applies to someone like Schock, but he should be careful: his district is moderate and it is in Obama's backyard. Ditto second-termer Peter Roskam. I've already talked about Cao: he's a dope.
Long-timers who have grown fat and stupid: There are several people here who should know better. Mike Castle should be careful. His free ride could end at any time coming from Delaware. He should reflect on the lesson of Bill Roth in 2000.
Thad McCotter is just too partisan and too dumb to do anything against leadership. That he got 51% last year against a guy with no money should have taught him something, but clearly it did not. Mike Rogers won easily last year, but only because he had not major opposition. His distict is blue, but I think this vote is easily explained by (1) Rogers is a partisan bomb-thrower; and (2) he wants to run for governor next year and will have a very tough primary.
LoBiando has been safe in South Jersey for a long time, but a reckoning could finally be coming if Dems recruit a strong challenger to him. He should learn to shape up, but I doubt he will.
Both Tibieri and LaTourrette need to be very careful. Tibieri in particular has had a very conservative record in a district Obama easily won. It is coming time that both will have stronger Democratic challengers at some point.
Gerlach almost lost against a nobody, but I figure he is thinking about his own 2010 gunernatorial run (and primary) too.
Finally, even though Frank Wolf easily won, his district is changing very fast. He may retire before it is dark blue, but this vote won't help his standing. Randy Forbes is too crazy and arrogant to vote any other way (i.e. against the party line), but Obama's win in his district was an amazing occurence that bodes well for Dems in Virginia. Lee Terry clearly thinks Obama's performance in Omaha last year was a fluke.
The rest of the names can certainly get away with a vote like this because they are so insulated in their district. That being said, a look at this list reveals that if Democrats decided in 2011 to finally get tough with redistricting in California and Illinois, they could wipe out close to 10 Republicans (hi Judy Biggert and David Dreier) who have been getting away with conservative records in moderate districts. This is an issue I will post separately on soon.
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Real quick: CA 48 is John Campbell, you may be thinking of the quirky former GOP congressman Tom Campbell from San Jose.
I disagree with Bright, yes he is a freshman but he has been sticking it to Dems on even non-controversial bills (e.g. Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay), some may chalk it up to lack of legislative experience and wanting to err on the side of caution by voting like a Republican, but I suspect that he really does think like a Southern Republican and may want to become Senator some day. If he does, expect him to be Dick Shelby v 2.0 a pain in the ass that even the GOP can't stand.
I also disagree with Griffith; he has held elective office and he knows his district is in dire need for federal funds; he's just being a chicken hawk of an old pol.
Dems should call Peterson's bluff and let him retire, the GOP bench in Western MN is virtually non-existent; 80% of his district is represented by a DFLer and if he leaves, expect a DFLer to hold the seat and even though Obama narrowly lost it in 2008, I expect him to win it outright in 2012.
Periello's district barely went to McCain so I think he is a bit safer than others.
Lance will be eliminated when NJ loses a CD in 2010 or worse, he's pared with Garret who will beat the fitzsimmons out of him, so frankly he should enjoy his only time in federal elected office. Upton and Schock should be eliminated; Upton will be the next Knollenberg or Walberg while Schock is an attractive young GOP who could cause IL Dems trouble in the future, they should kill off his chances now by redistricting him against Johnson or the more conservative Shimkus.
There is no reason why Kirk, Biggert and Castle should remain in office. All three are recent incarnations of the last GOP bunch from CT: Kirk is Simmons/Gary Franks; Biggert is Nancy Johnson and Castle is Chris Shays. All once famous, all now gone.
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