The news this morning that New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg is under serious consideration to be Secretary of Commerce is very big. Should Obama offer Gregg the job, and the Senator accept, it would rob the Republicans of yet another Senate seat, and potentially give the Democrats a 60th seat in the current Senate. In a word, such a move by Obama would be brilliant. And it would show just how far Obama has come as a political strategist and partisan thinker.
These discussions have come completely out of left field. No one saw this one coming. Sure, there has been scattered talk about Obama possibly offering a position to someone like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins -- the usual suspects given that they are the two most left-leaning Senate Republicans left -- but no one ever really considered Gregg for a post, especially since the cabinet filled out. This is precisely why the move would be so brilliant.
As we have noted in past posts, Gregg is up for a new term next year. A longtime fixture in Granite State politics, Gregg remains popular in New Hampshire, and it would be fair to say that he is the most popular Republican left there. Despite all of this, however, Gregg likely faces a tough race next year against someone like Congressman Paul Hodes. For this big reason, there has been a lot of chatter that Gregg has been thinking about making this his final stint in Congress. That he is now being considered for, and is himself considering a job in Obama's cabinet should only reinforce the validity of those rumors. Indeed, if Gregg were strongly married to the decision to seek another term, he likely would not be entertaining leaving the Senate right away.
Which brings us back to Obama. Obama and his team know all of this, and their decision to probe Gregg's candidacy as Commerce Secretary shows incredibly shrewdness. The cat may be out of the bag now, but Republicans were still caught flat-footed, and there is no doubt that prominent Senators have been lobbying Gregg hard over the last 24 hours not to accept any appointment that would lead him to vacate his Senate seat and give Democratic Governor John Lynch the power to appoint his replacement for the rest of this Congress. An appointment of Gregg would put another moderate Republican in the new Democratic President's cabinet, it would give the Democrats a great chance to get to a filibuster-proof 60 seats (assuming Al Franken is ultimately victorious), and it would rob the Republicans of one of their smartest members and at the same time strip the moribund party of one of its few remaining moderate voices (though, to be fair, Gregg is pretty conservative, just not when compared with individuals like Tom Coburn, Jeff Sessions, Jim DeMint, and others).
Obama's consideration of Gregg is a brilliant power-play, and the appointment of Gregg would be a political masterstroke. While this is hardly a done deal, this story would not have gotten out if Gregg were not under serious consideration.
Let me say one final thing. As I have documented before, when Obama first started running for President, I had little respect for his political savvy, believing him to be a somewhat idealistic and naive politician (as evidenced by his initial desire to vote to confirm John Roberts to be Chief Justice in 2005). Obviously, as the presidential campaign germinated and progressed and Obama ultimately emerged the big winner, this view of mine altered considerably. Making Rahm Emanuel his first appointment only reinforced this. However, should Obama tap Gregg for the Commerce post, I can promise that I will never, ever, ever question Obama's political chops, savvy, or plain ruthlessness ever again. To me, the move would be that smart.
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Tsk...tsk..tsk...slow down a minute brother. Let's think about this a bit shall we?
First, the obvious: NH has joined its NE brethren in completing a final switch to Dems on the national level. Just like AR was the last state to close its doors to national Dems in the South. Gregg, while a conservative, sees the handwriting on the wall and knows that he is more vulnerable now than he was just 6 yrs ago. Nevertheless, I believe he would ordinarily still hold the seat against Hodes. If Collins' thrashing of Tim Allen was anything to remember, it's that even a promising Dem candidate in a good environment in the NE still needs a lot of luck to knock of a popular GOP incumbent. And Gregg, like the Maine twins is still fairly popular in NH (heck even, the more conservative Gordon Smith barely lost in an overwhelming Dem year in OR after being heavily attacked by the DSCC).
Second: Gregg is not stupid. He is not as uncomfortable with the Southernized GOP as Jim Jeffords was when he switched in 2001. If he were to fall for Obama's charm, knowing a Dem Gov would appoint a Dem to replace him, it would infuriate the GOP caucus when he knows they haven't done anything significantly egregious to estrange him (heck, they made him lead negotiator on the largest unconditional outlay of federal $$, the September bailout, after the more conservative and highly irascible Dick Shelby of AL was effectively banished from the White House for storming out on Bush). The GOP senate is a sick patient but it's not on life support like the GOP House, so abandoning them now would just be cruel.
Third: The Gov, John Lynch is the Phil Bredesen of NH. He is a nonobservant Democrat and may decide to appoint a caretaker or some outside the box nominee without thinking about 2010.
Fourth: Obama knows the second point and I'm not sure why he'd load his administration with 3 Republicans. Does he think Gregg and the GOP are neophytes that they'd take the bait. If the roles were reversed, the leftist bloggers would have torched the Capitol. Has Obama been living under a rock for the past 8 yrs to realize that Dems don't want federal jobs? What is wrong with John Thompson, ex-CEO of Symantec? He raised tons of money for Obama, his name is leaked as Commerce secretary and then the job goes to Gregg? I agree with you that Obama has matured as a political strategist but to me, he has so far failed one crucial element of a durable leader: rewarding loyalty. A lot of people who endorsed him early and campaigned for him at great political risk when HRC was still viable, got nothing in return. If I were one of these people, this is something I would not soon forget.
So where does this lead? (1) this may be just a headfake to scare the GOP into shaping up with Obama saying "Know that I am God. That which I freely give in negotiations and talk of bipartisanship, I can take away by appointing your members to the Executive branch." (2) This may also be an inadvertent signal by Gregg that he is bored or tired of being in the Senate (though Gregg is still young at 61 in a Senate full of dinosaurs). It signals he may be thinking of retiring. (3) if he does not accept, however, he has weakened himself for reelection. A younger challenger can make the credible argument that Gregg is not fully committed to representing NH in addition to being part of a party that was wholly rejected by NH voters in 2006 and 2008. In such a situation, Gregg may be liked, but if he is thought not to want the job, a reasoanble voter might ask, why give it to him?
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