As we have been discussing of late, since the new year, Senate Republicans have caught a series of bad breaks, as four incumbents have announced their retirements in quick succession, knocking the party right back into the hole it found itself in the morning after the election. Well, this week Dems got a bit of their own bad news, as popular New Hampshire Governor John Lynch fairly emphatically announced that he will not challenge Republican Senator Judd Gregg in 2010.
Had Lynch decided to run, he would have been the likely frontrunner, even if Gregg opts for another term. Lynch is hyper-popular in New Hampshire right now, and he has received enormous majorities in his last two elections in 2006 and 2008 (New Hampshire's governor is up every two years). He was far and away the Dems' best possible nominee for the seat in two years. The focus now turns to second-term Rep. Paul Hodes, who is probably the best option remaining for the blue team. Hodes is supposedly strongly considering it. As we have already discussed, Second District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is also thinking about running, but we believe she would be a weak challenger, and an almost sure loser if Gregg runs again.
A lot of people (Democrats) have been looking at this race in the wrong way in their view of Gregg's viability. No one can question that New Hampshire has moved sharply to towards the Democrats in the last few years, with the party capturing and holding the governor's office, the state legislature, both congressional seats, and one of the U.S. Senate seats. That being said, Gregg remains the most popular Republican figure in the state, and a longtime fixture in New Hampshire (before coming to the Senate in 1992, he was governor). His popularity may not be as high as it once was, but he will still be a very formidable foe for national Democrats to take out. Even against Lynch, he would have had a good shot to win, and against lesser opponents, his chances are improved. If Hodes runs, Gregg should still be favored, and I think he would probably win in the end too.
There is talk that Gregg is considering retirement. Personally, unlike someone like Chuck Grassley, I don't think Gregg is a great candidate for retirement as he is not that old. However, should he decide to hang up his spurs and head for the exits, New Hampshire would move to the very top of the list of Senate seats likely to switch sides. For that reason, you can bet your life that John Cornyn, Orrin Hatch, and others are pleading with Gregg to stick it out for at least another term.
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I'm suspecting that Gregg wants to retire but not at the expense of handing the seat to the Democrats. I think he really likes John E. Sunnunu (he was not a fan of his father John H. Sunnunu) and may secretly want him to suceed him under the right conditions. So here is my theory: the domestic economy is going to dominate US politics for the next 2 election cycles at the least and I think Democrats are overshooting their expectations for 2010. Obama's team is forecasting 7% unemployment WITH his stimulus plan enacted and 9% without. That is VERY HIGH and may not be tolerated by Americans still hoping for the roaring 90s. So once the anti-GOP mood dies down and attention shifts to the Dems and Obama once they start making the tough decisions, I expect the Dems will not be on as strong a footing as they think and Gregg may retire and clear the coast for Sunnunu just as I expect McCain to do the same for Jeff Flake.
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