Another GOP Bummer in Ohio

Today's announcement by Republican Senator George Voinovich (Ohio) that he intends to retire next year is another headache for a party already sitting at 41 seats in the upper chamber. Voinovich joins Kit Bond (Missouri), Sam Brownback (Kansas), and Mel Martinez (Florida) as GOPers already announcing that they will not run for another term when they come up in 2010.

Voinovich's retirement is a somewhat mixed bag for the Republicans. On the one hand, unless a rep or senator is under indictment, it is always undesirable for a sitting incumbent's party to lose an incumbent, given most incumbents' high name recognition and their ability to raise money more easily. For his part, Voinovich is a longtime fixture in the Buckeye State, and his moderate, even posture has made him a formidable political force there. That being said, in recent years Voinovich's political standing at home has taken a big hit (in no small measure to the self-destruction of the Ohio Republican Party), and polling has suggested that had he run again, Voinovich would have faced a tough slog towards a third term. Therefore, am argument can be made that replacing Voinovich with a fresh face might give the Republicans a better chance to hold the seat.

I am inclined to buy the former line of thinking, and I see this latest retirement as more bad news for the Republicans. Voinovich has universal name recognition in Ohio, and as a more moderate member of Congress, he would not have been less vulnerable to attacks by Democrats attempting to tie him to the unpopular GOP Congress and the even more unpopular Bush years. I think he would have been a slight favorite had a chosen to run again next year, but now the race is a toss-up, at least until the primary fields develop more fully.

The GOP side looks a little more settled, even today, and not necessarily in a good way. Former Congressman Rob Portman appears like he is jumping right in. Portman left Congress a few years ago to join the Bush administration, first as the U.S. Trade Representative and then as the head of the OMB. A solid conservative from the red Cincinnati suburbs, Portman should garner widespread support among state and national Republicans. He should also be able to raise big money from his contacts and deep-pocketed allies.

Still, I think Portman will be a flawed candidate. First, despite the bluster of Republicans today, Portman is not well-known statewide. He was a rep for just one-eighteenth of the state, and even though he served in two very important federal posts, they are not exactly jobs that many Americans know a thing about. I would wager a great deal of money most Ohioians have no idea that one of their own was the trade rep and head of OMB. Second, Portman's ties to the brutally unpopular Bush years, particularly as a member of his economic/budget circle before the economic collapse, will be a prime target for Democrats, and it will become nightly fodder for hard-hitting commercials. You can bet that Portman will run away from what he has been doing the last few years, but these ties will take a heavy toll on his candidacy.

At the very least, Portman will likely be able to sew the nomination up pretty neatly. One likely opponent, former Congressman John Kasich has been making more noise that he wants to challenge Gov. Ted Strickland in 2010 instead. And even if Kasich would prefer to go for the Senate prize, look for John Cornyn and the NRSC to try to muscle him out in order to avoid a costly primary. If Kasich were to get in, that would make for an interesting match-up: the former head of OMB versus the former chair of the House Budget Committee. Specifically, Kasich is a likeable guy, and he has been hosting a semi-regular show on Fox News for some time, so he has retained at least some of his name recognition (he left Congress in 2000). However, his work for the GOP Congress, not to mention a post-Congress stint working for Lehman Brothers, could be big liabilities. Former Secretary of State and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell could also run, and to Portman's right, but for the time being he is pursuing the chairmanship of the RNC, so his prospects are much more uncertain today.

The Democratic side is a harder to call tonight. In my opinion, the strongest nominee is current Congressman Tim Ryan of Eastern Ohio. Elected in 2002, Ryan is very young, very telegenic, and he has a good blue collar base (Youngstown) that could serve him very well in a statewide run. Additionally, while Ryan has a mostly liberal voting record, he is pro-life, which would be an asset for him in the more conservative pockets of the state. Some may argue that Ryan is less likely to run because he was tapped for the Appropriations Committee in the last Congress. Just as when this argument is proffered in relation to other members, let me again call it complete hooey. Yes, Approps is one of the very best committees in Congress, but take a look at Ryan's resume. He was elected to Congress the age of 29. This is not a guy who wants to sit as a back-bencher in the House forever: he is very ambitious. A Senate run for an open seat next year is the perfect opportunity for him, and if he has any guts, vision, or savvy at all, now is the time to make a race. Given his age, he could serve six or seven terms. But if does not run, a Senate seat may not open for 20 years. Ryan is tonight said to be considering this race.

The other possible Dems are okay. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher may be too old, and he has already lost statewide runs. Second-term Congresswoman Betty Sutton, is, in my humble opinion, a light weight, and her representing the same district that current Sen. Sherrod Brown vacated in 2006 to go to the Senate may not be an asset. Fellow second-termer Zach Space is very interesting. Space represents a pretty Republican district, and if he could do well in his region of the state, he could win on the back of the urban centers. Plus, he may consider a run with a more difficult contest looming for him in 2010 (not to mention that Ohio is going to lose two House seats in the next census). To be honest, I don't know enough about Space's record to make a fully reasoned opinion of him, but he could be a potentially strong nominee and someone worth watching, especially if Ryan foolishly decides not to run.

A Portman-Ryan or Portman-Space race (forgive the unintentional pun there) would have to be viewed as a toss-up. Both national parties will spend heavily: Republicans want desperately to hold off Ohio's seeming leftward movement, and Democrats want to control both Senate seats for the first times since the days of Howard Metzenbaum and John Glenn. With Gov. Strickland likely to romp to a second term in 2010, whoever the Dems put up will likely see a boast from the popular governor, not to mention the fundraising advantage cash-rich Dems will enjoy over their counterparts. My own initial sense is that while Democrats would be foolish to dismiss Portman's chances, Ryan should be able to beat him, barring a change for the worse in the economy or in Obama's popularity. And even if this outlook may be a bit too rosy for the blue team, there's little doubt Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn are suffering from some heartburn tonight.