Wake Up and Smell the Reality

This item from this evening caught my eye:

Now that Roland Burris will soon be seated in the United States Senate, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn is calling the Illinois Senate race a “top priority” for the party in 2010.

“I fully expect that the voters of Illinois will not soon forget this dark chapter in their state’s political history, just as I also expect voters across the country will not soon forget the arrogant mismanagement of Senate Democrat leaders in recent weeks,” Cornyn said in a statement.

“Rebuilding the public trust in Illinois and re-gaining this Senate seat will be a top priority for Republicans in 2010.”

There is no doubt that even though the current Burris/Blago saga is over and Burris is being seated in the Senate, Democrats are not in the ideal position right now with regards to the seat. People in Illinois remain embarrassed and disgusted with the Blagojevich scandal, and Burris' very presence makes both him and the state party vulnerable when the seat comes up in 2010. Nevertheless, I see little chance that the seat will flip to the Republicans in two years, even if by some unlikely event Burris is the Democratic nominee in 2010.

Consider the following:

* In two years, once Blagojevich is out of office, and perhaps even convicted by then, the stench of corruption will waft a little less strongly over the seat

* There is an excellent chance Burris will be ousted in a primary -- assuming he runs for a full term -- by another Democrat who is not tied as closely to Blagojevich

* The Republican bench in the state stinks

I realize John Cornyn has to speak with lots of bluster in his position as NRCC honcho/GOP cheerleader, just as people like Schumer, Van Hollen, and others have had to do for Dems in their positions. Still, don't expect this seat to change hands any time soon, for one simple reason:

Barack Obama.

Regardless of what happens to Obama's national popularity in the next two years, he will remain a national force, and a hero in his homestate. What does this mean? Simply that there is absolutely no way Obama would allow this seat, his seat to be lost. Even in the worst case scenario for Dems -- Blago's trial is still ongoing in late 2010, Burris wins the nomination, and the GOP nominates their best possible nominee in Mark Kirk -- the blue team would still likely hold the seat. If the race is close (and even if it is not that close), Obama will play a big role in raising money and jacking up turnout on behalf of whoever runs for a full term on the Democratic line. Obama will not let his own seat go to the Republicans on his watch. You can take that to the bank.

The only way I saw Dems conceivably losing this seat was if state legislators were foolish enough to call a special election while people were still furious at Blagojevich and Dems. If that had happened, Kirk could have snuck past also-rans like Burris, Danny Davis, Jesse Jackson Jr, or others. But with no special -- the legislators wised up fast -- Kirk would have a hard time winning in November 2010.

In sum, if you ever fall into the trap of thinking that the Illinois Senate seat could be endangered, just remember who is in the White House. Other than that, it would take the old Earl Long dead-girl-live-boy scandal to turn the seat red.