The GOP caught some awful news today when former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced he would not run for the Senate seat that will be vacated by Senator Mel Martinez in 2010. This is a rough one for the Republicans, and a terrific turn of events for the Democrats.
For a while, Martinez had been viewed as the most vulnerable sitting Senator coming up in 2010, and there is little question that this long-standing weakness played a large role in his decision to retire from the Senate after serving just one term. At the time, his move was a downer to many Dems who were eager to take on the wounded senator. Additionally, Bush's initial interest in the seat was really bitter for the Blue Team, and for more than the obvious Bush-hate. Make no mistake: had Bush decided to run, he would have been an extremely strong favorite to win the seat, almost regardless of which Democrat had decided to run against him -- and it is likely that every strong Dem on the Sunshine State bench would have avoided making the race like the plague.
It is for this reason that Republicans should be fairly devastated today. Bush would have virtually guaranteed that the seat would be a hold in their column, but now the Democrats again have a superb shot of gaining a new pick-up, as they have a handful of very strong potential nominees headlined by state CFO Alex Sink and second-term South Florida Rep. Ron Klein. To be sure, the GOP also has some strong nominees including uber popular Gov. Charlie Crist (though, personally I don't think he will go for it and instead opt for a second term as governor, also in 2010). Still, Bush's decision to sit this race out is a big blow to the GOP, and a boon to the likely frontrunner Sink.
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It's way too soon to suggest a possible Dem pickup in FL. For one thing, the state is still fairly conservative, at least economically. Second, the GOP bench is very deep, while the Dems have maybe 1 or 2 statewide favorites and a no name congressmen. Third, in 6-9 months, the question won't how bad Bush is but what has Obama done to fix it; and if the economy is still hurting by early 2010, the party in power will be on defense. It was the same in 1994, 1990, 1982, 1978, 1974 and 1966 and many previously safe seats or pick-up opportunities will vanish literally overnight.
I agree with you 100%. My only point here is that had Jeb run, he would have been a shoo-in to win the general election and hold the seat for the GOP. They may still keep it with someone like Bill McCollum or Rubbio, but it won't be a lock. For a party looking to catch a break in the Senate, being able to check-off Florida right off the bat as a win would have been comforting.
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