Who Obama Should Pick for Veep, Part III

The Middle List

Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN). Bredesen is great. He's very popular in Tennessee and was re-elected in 2006 by an overwhelming margin. But that's really the only reason he's on the list: because he's a popular southern governor. The fact is that Tennessee is extremely red and almost certainly unwinnable in a general, even in this atmosphere, and he has zero foreign policy experience. Harold Ford had numerous breaks and he still lost statewide. If Obama pursues a national strategy, he should aim for western and mid-western states and not southern ones. The same goes if he wants to pursue a more limited, cautious regional strategy, in which case he could go for Ohio, Virginia or some other bigger, winnable state. Of further importance is that the Obama campaign has not included the Sooner State on any of its lists of red states it intends to invest resources in. In the end, an Obama-Bredesen ticket wouldn't win a single southern state, and Bredesen's appeal nationwide would be limited indeed.

Gov. Brad Henry (OK). Gov. Henry could threaten Sen. Tom Coburn (R) when the latter's seat is up in 2010, and Henry is term-limited. Yet, while Henry remains extremely popular there, even in a tidal wave election it would be tough to envision Obama carrying Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, or any of the states in that region. Gov. Henry is moderate, white, not too young, never been in DC though. But has no national security credentials.

Gov. Tim Kaine (VA). Kaine was an early supporter of Obama, and if Obama wants to make a big play for Virginia, Kaine may get the nod. However, if Obama goes for this strategy he could also tap Mark Warner who is more popular statewide, and more moderate, than Kaine, though Warner has said he is staying in the Senate race to replace outgoing Sen. John Warner. Indeed, Kaine is popular in Virginia, but not extremely popular. He could fit into Obama's change mantra, but not as well as other possibilities. He's certainly on the cusp of the short list, but I just don't see it as Obama can do a little better, even in the Governor's backyard. He has no foreign policy cred, and was first elected to office in 2005. Even if he is not selected, Kaine is a top candidate for a cabinet post, or a strong candidate for a Senate seat should Warner move over to the big race (in which case he would face Gilmore and probably win) or if Webb is picked for the #2 slot.

Gov. Ed Rendell (PA). Old thoroughly talented Dem hand, white male, two term governor. Popular as heck in Pennsylvania, but Obama should be able to win the state even without Rendell. Plus, he's a longtime Clintonista, which might unsettle some in the Obama campaign.

Gov. Brian Schweitzer (MT). I'm a huge fan of Schweitzer, and last year I was clamoring for him to get into the presidentials race. In 2000, as a totally unknown candidate, he nearly ousted Conrad Burns when Bush was winning Montana by overwhelming margins. He came back four years later, teamed up with a Republican, and won the governorship in a big red state in another huge GOP year. He's very likeable, affable, popular in his state, moderate/conservative on numerous issues, and a plain-talker willing to say what he thinks on controversial subjects. For example, he refused to endorse one of our candidates and expressed admiration for some of the Republicans running. Still, he is very well liked by the party base and the Dailykos crowd. He seems to be always smiling, and he has played a key role in building the Dem presence in Montana—helping result in Jon Tester's election in 2006. His boundless energy and enthusiasm would be a boon to any ticket, and would meld very well with Obama's change argument. He exudes western energy and enthusiasm: he's no poser. There are of course numerous minuses. He was first elected to office in 2004, and prior to that had never held any elective office. He has no foreign policy experience, though he did live in the Middle East for many years and knows a great deal about numerous salient issues relevant to the region and can even speak Arabic. Additionally, while he is popular in Montana, it is difficult -- though not impossible -- to believe that the state (w/a meager 3 Electoral Votes) would ever vote Democratic in a presidential election. The same goes for neighboring states Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. As a result, adding Schweitzer to the ticket is going to bolster any regional, cautious strategy. If Obama is going for a national, change ticket, Schweitzer would certainly add regional diversity and fantastic energy. Gov. Schweitzer is 52 years old. I love Schweitzer, but in the end I don't see a Montana politician getting picked, even for all his positives. It would take a huge leap of faith in Obama's change argument.

Gov. Ted Strickland (OH)

Sen. Evan Bayh (IN). Attractive, telegenic white male with strong roots in Indiana (two time Gov, two-term Sen there). But even though he's young, he's been in DC and politics for a while, so he wouldn't play into the change narrative that well. Other minuses: from a state next to Illinois, no foreign policy cred, Clinton backer, and it is very questionable if he could deliver longtime GOP state Indiana and its 11 Electoral Votes into the blue column. The Obama campaign has said it is going to fight hard for Indiana, and a recent poll showing the race statistically tied in the Hoosier State bolsters those claims, but I just do not see the state being competitive in the end. Obama certainly has strong opportunities than in Indiana.

Sen. Joe Biden (DE)

Sen. Jim Webb (VA)

Fmr. Gen. Wesley Clark. Intriguing choice. Pluses: older white male with gravitas, unassailable on foreign policy/military credentials, has southern roots. Minuses: may be spent and stale as a candidate from his failed 2004 run, bad speaker, Clinton backer, not terribly electric and probably wouldn't add enough to put the South into any play. His recent comments bashing McCain's military service have already badly hurt him.

Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (SD). Has been a close Obama ally since 2004, but he is a near lifetime DC figure and he wouldn't let us smell victory in his tiny home state or the surrounding region. He is moderate, but possesses limited foreign affairs cred. The fact that he could not help deliver his home state to Obama in the primary against a badly-wounded Hillary does not help him.

Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey (NE)

Frm. Gov. Mark Warner (VA)