The GOP Veepstakes: A Suggested (and Necessary) Risk

To pick a national running mate or one who can deliver a state or two? How McCain executes the broader strategy outlined here vis a vis his running mate pick presents a dilemma. On the one hand, he could choose a nominee to shake up his campaign from top to bottom, attempting to re-capture his party's enthusiasm while also going for moderates. However, such a move would seemingly run completely counter to the base view of this analysis that McCain needs to concentrate only on winning the states he needs. Rather, McCain should find a nominee who he can dispatch to the Rust Belt and help him carry Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. My suggestion is that McCain aim for the former in his veep pick in order to fit into a broader strategy of running his Pontiac campaign. He needs to work hard all summer to keep the race close, and then if he is successful, tap a vice president who can give him one final boast that he is going to need to overtake Obama in the final miles of the presidential marathon.

I realize that this suggestion seems counterintuitive in light of the overview arguments. But it is entirely logical and they fit well together. I reject the view that a candidate needs to tape a vice president who can carry a nice state or two. Such a strategy is narrow-minded and especially unhelpful in a true underdog campaign. But, you are saying to yourself, Mark Greenbaum has just spent a bunch of words arguing that McCain needs to focus on a bare 270 strategy. Yes, but the fact of the matter is that there is no such candidate who can jump on the GOP ticket and say, "don't worry Mac, I will get us the 58 Electoral Votes in the Rust Belt that we need." As will be argued in the summary below, no such candidate exists. Consequently, McCain will need to take a gamble and go for something different.

Conservative running mates. In addressing the broader veep question, McCain will need to focus on both reaching out and making sure his base, particularly the True Believers, come back into the fold. True Believers are those Republicans with strong conservative views. If McCain were to pick any of these nominees, he would do much to re-assure Evangelicals and others in the base of his own bona fides. They are also generally fiscally conservative as well, and typical GOP backers. It is obvious that McCain must try to placate these bases as they are still uneasy with his candidacy.

If McCain is interesting in tapping a running mate with the main goal of placating the Republican base, he has a wide selection of possibilities nominees

Sen. Tom Coburn (OK)

Sen. Jim DeMint (SC)

Sen. Lamar Alexander (TN)

Sen. Sam Brownback (KS)

Sen. Richard Burr (NC)

Sen. Lindsay Graham (SC)

Sen. John Thune (SD)

Gov. Mark Sanford (SC)

Gov. John Huntsman (UT)

Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)

Gov. Haley Barbour (MS)

Rep. Eric Canton (VA)

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (CA)

Rep. Mike Pence (IN)

Conservative breakdown. In the interest of making a generalization, I think that several of these names can be lumped into the same category and thereafter crossed off. There is no doubt that Sens. Coburn, DeMint, Brownback, Burr (to a lesser extent), and Thune and Rep. Pence would pass the smell test for hardcore conservatives and many religious conservatives. All of them have pretty much perfect records with groups like the Family Research Council, the Chamber of Commerce, and the American Conservative Union. In other words, no one could -- or would -- question their conservative credentials. Still, their very right-centric records would make a ticket with McCain susceptible to criticism as too extreme and out of the mainstream, certainly scaring off many moderates, independents and women. Lamar Alexander -- he of the famous plaid shirts in the 1996 race -- would present similar problems. Furthermore, while being conservative, he does not exactly delight conservatives. Huntsman is an unknown entity from the most Republican state in America. Reps. Cantor and McCarthy are well-liked in Republican circles and seen as fast-rising stars in the House leaderships, but both could be seen as too young and inexperienced, with McCarthy currently in his first term. But more importantly, neither would bring huge blocs of the electorate or excitement onto the ticket, though it is worth noting that Cantor is Jewish.

No to Barbour. The others are worthy of some deeper scrutiny. While Gov. Barbour would have been the perfect type of running mate for Rudy Giuliani, he probably is not the right guy for McCain. He certainly has deep roots in the national party, a strong conservative background (he once headed the RNC and was an operative for Pres. Reagan), and has earned praise for his leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Still, if I may be overly simplistic: I am not sure McCain wants to present to the American people the "old white guy" ticket in 2008. I just do not think a McCain-Barbour ticket would set the world on fire, even if it reassured conservatives.

Lindsay Graham is worth a brief discussion. Graham too has a strongly conservative voting record in the House and the Senate, and was even a House impeachment manager. He also has a military record (he was a JAG attorney), and has been a leader on numerous military issues, (he was a key backer and craftsman of the Military Commissions Act). He probably is not as loved by conservatives as the other names names mentioned above, however, because he has crossed party lines in several areas. His work as one of the Gang of 14 that broke the Senate impasse over the Federal Judges filibuster issue would undoubtedly cost Graham support with the many conservatives who hated the deal (though McCain was also in the Gang). In the end, though, Graham is only on McCain's list for one reason: their close friendship. Graham may have been McCain's most fervent congressional backer in 2000, and was an early supporter in 2008. The two are very close, and Graham has been working intimately with the campaign for some time. While he would not be a great pick, McCain's friendship with South Carolina's senior senator cannot be forgotten.

Mark Sanford is probably the least offensive, and thus, best true conservative. That leaves Jindal and Sanford. I think of all the possible names being floated about, Sanford would be the best candidate if McCain's top purpose is reassuring and gaining the confidence of the conservative base. Prior to being elected governor over incumbent Democrat Jim Hodges in 2002, Sanford had been a three-term Representative from the First District. Sanford was elected in the famous Class of '94, and he fulfilled an early pledge to serve just three terms (interestingly, Coburn also followed through on the same pledge, while other members of the class did not). He gained notoriety for his fiscal conservatism in the House, and fought vigorously against spending increases and pork barrel spending before both causes became in-vogue. Sanford is a maverick politician in many ways that McCain is, though this has led to problems while Sanford has been governor. Sanford has had strained relations with the Republican-controlled state legislature (in one famous instance, he brought a pig onto the State House floor as a symbol of criticism of the state legislators; it supposedly defecated on the floor). Furthermore, while Sanford was a strong supporter of John McCain during his 2000 run for President, he did not come out in support of McCain until after the nominating contest was over. Whether this has led to lingering bad feelings with McCain is unclear. Sanford was also rated by Time Magazine one of America's worst governors -- hardly what you want on a September commercial. Still, Sanford's record makes him the best pick of the strong conservatives, but his brash politics would be unlikely to attract non-conservatives. I will get back Gov. Jindal soon.

What we see from a summary of the conservative veep choices is a list of men who probably could assuage conservative fears, but would have a very hard time connecting McCain to the middle-of-the-road voters he will need to beat Obama. So what should be his course? Pick one of them, or pick someone else with a moderate record? McCain desperately needs to find a nominee who could best do both. Below is a list of the most obvious names I could think of.

Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)

Sen. Olympia Snowe (ME)

Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)

Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)

Gov. Linda Lingle (HI)

Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN)

Gov. Jodi Rell (CT)

Fmr. Rep/Fmr. OMB Dir. Rob Portman (OH)

Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)

Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

Hagel can be axed right away: despite being fellow Vietnam veterans, McCain and Hagel have broken recently over the Iraq war, and there is even talk Hagel will formally back Obama and is being considering for Obama's veep slot.

A flawed crop of possible female running mates. Snowe, Lingle, and Rell are all very interesting and similar in three important respects: they are moderate officeholders, they are all hugely popular in their home states and they are all women. For these reasons alone, each should be at least examined by Team McCain. If McCain wants to make a grab for the female vote, then each of them would be valuable in that respect. Nevertheless, each of them is very unlikely to picked. Snowe may be the most popular politician in Maine, but her moderate record in the Senate would turn off many conservative Republicans already nervous about McCain, and she cannot compensate as she is not from a key swing state that she could potentially carry for McCain (Maine is worth only five electoral votes and likely to give all five of them to Obama). The same circumstances apply to Rell, despite her great popularity in the Nutmeg State. Finally, I would be lying if said I knew a great deal about Lingle other than that she is Jewish, she won in a big upset in 2002 and was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2006, and is popular in Hawaii despite its political tilt. Her inclusion on the ticket would not turn Hawaii away from its favorite son Obama, and her past calls to raise taxes would probably earn the ire of the fiscal conservatives. So, while each of them are good politicians and moderates, none of them would help McCain a great deal or be likely to get a seal of approval from the GOP base. To put it succinctly, each of three is kind of bland.

Kay Bailey? Hutchison is an interesting name that has kind of fallen off the radar, assuming it was ever there in the first place. She has a pretty strongly conservative record -- although not as far right as her fellow Lone State Senator John Cornyn and is a member of the GOP Senate leadership. Therefore, she would likely be alright with conservatives. Yet, despite her record, she has a very subdued and fairly likable and telegenic (in fact, she was a television reporter in her prior life). She is certainly someone McCain should strongly consider, though mentions of her as a serious contender are rare.

Crist. Conversely, Charlie Crist has gotten a lot of attention from the media in recent weeks. Crist is the popular first-term Florida governor, and he endorsed McCain prior to the crucial Florida primary (despite flirting with Giuliani early on). Crist has apparently become a McCain favorite, and the main logic of adding him to the ticket is that he would assure that McCain would win Florida. While McCain almost certainly must win Florida, he probably does not need to tap Crist to take the state. Also, on its face, a McCain-Crist ticket would not be completely appealing, sporting two, white-haired, white men. Again, this line of thought may seem overly simplistic, but if McCain wants to branch out, there are better tickets than this one.

Huckabee. I am a fan of Mike Huckabee. There, I admitted it. No, personally I do not agree with his social views on most issues, but he is likable. A couple of years ago, I predicted that he would be the Republicans' ultimate nominee for President because of his likability and socially conservative positions. While I completely underestimated the vehemence of oppositions towards Huckabee from the Club for Growth, Cato, and other groups, I still am a bit surprised he did not do better in the primary. I think that ultimately, despite his early success in Iowa, he was unable to get much oxygen because the conservative vote was split between Huck, Romney, and Fred Thompson, thus effectively giving McCain the opening he needed in New Hampshire, Florida and elsewhere. Nevertheless, I think Huckabee could still have a bright future in politics given his pleasant demeanor. Never underestimate the value of plain likability. McCain should give Huck some good consideration, but ultimately fiscal conservatives' distrust of the former Governor would be very unhelpful. Additionally, tapping Huck would likely not open up any new doors for McCain into winning segments of the voting populace. He did lose in the primary, albeit strongly and gracefully, and as much as I think he is a likable guy, I just do not feel that a McCain-Huckabee ticket would mesh very well in then.

Romney. Mitt Romney is a name that has been bandied about a lot, and his standing among establishment conservatives has become fairly strong after he veered sharply to the right in his bid for the GOP nomination. It is that same sharp turn that would probably lose him a lot of support he could have had had he run as a moderate based on his successful business resume and his term as governor of one of the most liberal states in the country. All merits and de-merits aside, my personal opinion is that the lack of trust between the two men has already nixed this pairing. Should McCain ultimately tap Romney, it will be solely based on worries about money so that McCain can tap the Mittster's large reserve of personal cash. Any time you pick someone primarily because of money like this, the choice is unlikely to lead to success. McCain is also unlikely to allow Mitt to use him to become the de facto GOP nominee (in either 2012 or 2016).

Portman and Ohio. Ohio is another pivotal state (if it isn't the pivotal state in the nation). Winning it is certainly going to be at the heart of each candidate's plans. While Ohio has long been a Republican state, the Taft Coingate scandal and the 2006 elections changed the state's dynamic considerably, leaving Ohio with few viable Republican figures. Consequently, Rob Portman is seen (probably correctly) as the best possible veep choice from Ohio. He has cut a conservative record, and is well regarded by establishment conservatives from his time as a congressman, then as President's Bush Trade Representative and then his head of OMB. Portman is young (53 years old) and affable, and he could help McCain win Ohio. My view of Portman is pretty simple. If the McCain campaign's polling shows that Portman would be hugely helpful in carrying Ohio, he should be in the top three as Ohio's 20 electoral votes are that valuable. However, this is not something that is knowable right now. If Portman would not be very helpful in Ohio -- and this is certainly possible as Portman was only the Rep for the Second District -- he is not worth it. One thing that should not be underestimated is Portman's ties to the Bush administration. Tapping Portman would really expose McCain to accusations that he would be a third Bush term. Portman held two top (albeit less known) positions in the administration, and as a result could bring a link to the unpopular Bush that McCain would want to avoid. For this reason, I think he is a flawed candidate. Sadly for McCain, the GOP bench in Ohio has been decimated, the Portman could be the best game in town for Ohio.

Jindal=the most interesting possibility. Bobby Jindal may represent John McCain's most intriguing choice. Jindal is the Indian-American governor of Louisiana and a former congressman from the state's First District. He has a truly amazing personal story: he was a Rhodes Scholar, and before he was 30 years old, he had already headed Louisiana's university system and served in a high-ranking position in the U.S. Department of Health. After narrowly losing a bid for governor in 2003, he was elected to David Vitter's old House seat in 2004 after Vitter moved up to the Senate, and served there until he was elected governor on his second try on a reform banner. Jindal's young age (I think he is about 37) would probably be an issue to some, but given McCain's long resume and Jindal's own host of experience -- unquestionably even greater than Obama's -- that should be an issue. Jindal's inclusion on the ticket would definitely infuse a lot of energy and excitement onto the GOP side and it would certainly garner the support of staunch Republicans. Jindal is, in my opinion, an excellent speaker and brilliant mind, and is able to speak cogently on just about any subject. And let there be no question: Jindal wants the job, even though he has only been leading post-Katrina Louisiana for less than a year.

I see two key problems with Jindal. First, his record is extremely conservative, so much so that it may turn off moderates and independents intrigued by the young man. So, from that aspect, any gains made by a McCain-Jindal ticket could be lost once people learn just how conservative Gov. Jindal is. Second is the issue of what will be gained by adding Jindal to the ticket. As I said, Jindal would bring a heaping helping of youth and excitement to the Republican side, and he would help McCain win a lot of media cycles with the pick. Still, a Jindal pick would in many ways an attempt by McCain to out-Obama Obama. In other words, part of Jindal's appeal to Republicans is that he is a successful, attractive, telegenic minority leader, and many Republicans are supporting him in part based on the belief that because he is a minority, he could almost outshine Obama and perhaps peel away key blocks of voters from the Democratic nominee. I think this logic is terribly misguided. Despite Jindal's appeal, he will gain little general support for McCain from minority groups (excepting Indian-Americans and perhaps some other Asian-Americans). If the GOP wants to pick Jindal because there is a belief that they could essentially out-do Obama, they will be in for a rude awakening. Jindal certainly has his strengths, but his supporters should be realistic about his limitations as an appealing figure. On base, Jindal is still an intriguing choice and his potential for energizing the GOP race is something Team McCain should survey extremely carefully.

The likely, but not the best pick. It has been my belief for a while that when it is all said and done, John McCain will pick Gov. Tim Pawlenty to be his running mate. There are certainly good reasons why this will happen. Pawlenty is an old friend, having once been McCain's driver when he was younger. He also was one of the first to endorse McCain and stuck with him throughout the time period when it looked like the McCain campaign would crash and burn. McCain has certainly remembered Pawlenty's loyalty and friendship, and to me, this is probably the greatest reason why Pawlenty is the current frontrunner for the nomination. The son of a truck driver, he worked his way through college and has come to symbolize national Republicans capable of molding themselves as blue collar; indeed, Pawlenty himself coined the term "Sam's Club Republican" in describing the need for the GOP to branch out to more blue collar constituencies while retaining conservative values. As Newsweek well summarized: "As governor, he's cut taxes and spending, backed an anti-gay marriage amendment", so he would be acceptable to many conservatives. However, he is not beloved by all conservatives, and criticisms have bubbled up in several places, noting, among other things, that Pawlenty is a big-government Republican whose record would be anathema to many conservatives and libertarian leaners.

On a personal side, he has no white hair, is not yet 50, and is very lively and telegenic. That he survived to win re-election in the big Democratic year of 2006 -- by a slim 47-46 margin, but only after his opponent, the state Attorney General made a last minute gaffe -- speaks to his electoral strength; though, his addition to the ticket would not guarantee that McCain wins Minnesota's 10 electoral votes given Obama's great fit with the state. In fact, I suspect McCain is going to lose Minnesota no matter what. Still, my own personal view is that this last point should not be seen as a disqualifier for Pawlenty as it generally is with most candidates. Pawlenty's gifts as a politician and the assets he could bring to the GOP ticket should not be seen as totally diminished solely because he may not help the party carry his own state. McCain would be very comfortable with Pawlenty as his running mate, and the governor would add tremendous youth and energy to a GOP ticket desperate for both. I think that McCain probably agrees with this, which is why Pawlenty is probably at the top of the veep list right now.

Yet, despite the likelihood that McCain will pick Pawlenty -- in a sense, going for the "safe" pick in the process -- I think there is probably at least one better choice. This choice would certain pose greater risks, but given the national dynamic McCain faces, he will need to take risks in order to win the election. If all McCain does the entire campaign is take the safer path, than he will likely lose in my opinion. It is because of this view that I think McCain should tap Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his nominee. Palin would be able to excite and retain the GOP base while giving McCain the opportunity to branch out to other blocs of voters crucial to the election and reinvigorate his campaign in the fall.

McCain should tap...the Governor of Alaska...? This suggestion is hardly new. Numerous commentators have come out in strong support of a McCain-Palin ticket. Palin has also been receiving a great deal of attention in the last few months from Rush Limbaugh, the National Review, and key centers and figures in the conservative community. Therefore, we can see that her support is not based solely because she is the hot, new political entity; rather, the support from key conservatives is based greatly on her own credentials: she is strongly pro-life, she brings fiscal conservatism, and in taking on entrenched Republicans in Alaska since her rise to power there, she has established herself as a champion of ethics issues. Heck, she is in fact currently suing the Interior Department over the listing of polar bears as "threatened"; if that does not delight arch-conservatives, nothing will. Indeed, a few years ago she resigned her position on the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to protest rampant corruption on the body that was later exposed, vindicating her stance. Palin also took on hugely unpopular former Senator and Governor Frank Murkowski, and ousted him in a 2006 primary before being elected in the general election. Palin has been vocal in calling for a new comprehensive national energy policy, and has even come out strongly in favor of allowing drilling in ANWR.

So, Palin certainly has conservative stripes that should be agreeable to many conservatives. However, Palin would bring even more to the table for Sen. McCain. Gov. Palin is only 44 years -- pretty young by political standards, vibrant, and telegenic and appealing. Palin has a likable and engaging personal story, as she married her high school sweetheart and has a large brood of children, including one that was just born who has Down's Syndrome. There is no doubt that her addition to the ticket would provide an tremendous boast to McCain's campaign. The media coverage of the appointment would be enormous, probably even greater than that which Al Gore received when he tapped Joe Lieberman for his running mate. Assuming McCain is staring down at a deficit during the summer and into the fall, Palin's appointment could provide great short-term benefits for his campaign. If I were advising the senior Senator from Arizona, I would tell him to make his pick later, probably even after Obama taps his veep, assuming McCain is able to keep it close for most of the summer.

Tapping Palin would not just be a move made to win a couple of media cycles: it would also bring long-term benefits. Palin could be a strong surrogate to discuss the importance of electoral change and ethics in government, leaning heavily on her work and experiences in Alaska. The most obvious thing many commentators will turn to is that Palin could potentially tap into angry female voters who were in the Hillary Clinton camp. This is certainly a possibility, though it is unknown, at least to me, what kind of inroads Palin could make with that vital group. There is no doubt Palin would help up McCain's numbers with women, but to what extent is an open question. Unfortunately, polling McCain-Palin would be unenlightening since no one knows who Palin is. If McCain were to pick Palin, he would have to hope on the assumption that she would be more than just a tiny bit helpful in garnering greater female support for the Arizona Senator.

For a small added bonus, having Palin on the national ticket would be immensely helpful in salvaging an endangered Senate seat. In office since 1968, Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is running in a very difficult race against the mayor of Anchorage. His popularity in the state has plummeted since his house was raided by the FBI as part of an outgoing state corruption investigation that also includes his son, the former head of the State Senate. Having never faced a particularly tough race, Stevens is down in the polls now, and there is a good chance he could lose in November, costing the GOP a Senate seat in a red state. Adding Palin to the ticket would probably be very helpful to Stevens' chances, and I do not think it is an understatement to say that the move could single-handedly save Stevens. This is a small matter, but a nice little bonus nonetheless. I do not think any other talked-about prospective veep could bring the additional benefit of protecting an endangered Senate seat in the same way (though Gov. Barbour would ensure Sen. Roger Wicker's election, that race is 50-50 as is, and less likely to flip than Alaska).

Potential criticisms of a Palin candidacy. The raps against Palin are pretty much standard, and most are not terribly convincing though a couple are merit-worthy. Let's go over some of them:

"She has no experience in foreign affairs." So what? I agree that this is a concern for most nominees, particularly Obama himself, but it shouldn't be for McCain. McCain has been in the Senate for over two decades and has a wealth of experience in foreign and military affairs. That his running mate lacks those credentials should not be seen as a deal-breaker. McCain's own response should be that he wants to reach out and look towards other groups and interests that could bolster his campaign.

"She's from Alaska, a state carrying only three electoral votes and which the GOP is going to win anyway." For a long time, I have been one of those who have argued that the veep nominee to a presidential candidate should always bring with him or her the ability to help win a key state. And earlier, I said that McCain needs to run a campaign focused solely on plucking just enough states to get to 270. I still believe that, but given the uncertainty of so many states, as the decided underdog McCain cannot assume that winning that one state will swing the election for him. Sure, if Rob Portman's selection would guarantee that McCain holds Ohio, I might feel differently, but Portman would bring no such guarantee. Furthermore, there is no choice who McCain can turn to in order to pick up Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and/or Florida. McCain is down, and he needs a bold strategy. Picking Tim Pawlenty will be seen as business as usual. Ditto Mitt Romney and Mark Sanford. Picking Sarah Palin would be bold.

"She's too unknown." I find this criticism unpersuasive simply because most politicians are totally unknown by regular Americans. This may come as a shock to the writers (and readers) of Roll Call or Politico, but most people have no idea who Bobby Jindal or Steny Hoyer are. Even if McCain picked someone like Jindal or Pawlenty, that they are unknown entities is probably pretty inevitable and not that harmful.

"She's too young and inexperienced generally to be Commander in Chief should the unthinkable happen." The first half is irrelevant, while the second half of the criticism has some merit. First, her age would not matter; heck, she is only two years younger than Obama, so it is unlikely this could be an issue. Regarding general experience, there could be an argument that resonates. Palin has only been governor of Alaska for for a year and a half, and prior to that, she was the mayor of a town with only 5,000 people. Having someone who was mayor of 5,000 people in 2006 be one step from the presidency in 2009 would be a potent argument for Obama. This is something McCain would have to evaluate.

"Picking Palin would be seen as a stunt, or perhaps even worse, a sign of desperation." This is certainly possible. By tapping Palin, McCain would be hoping that he catches lightning in a bottle. However, in politics and media, there are absolutely no guarantees. Palin could turn out to be a dud right out of the gate, further dooming McCain's chances.

Conclusion. Make no mistake: John McCain is the underdog in this race. All of the national polls show Obama with varying leads and the states showing Obama ahead or close basically everywhere establish this. McCain is not going to win unless he is willing to take some big risks. Naming Sarah Palin as his running mate would certainly represent an immense gamble. But given the national environment and the strengths that Sen. Obama brings, McCain cannot get by with just the same old thing. An old white man-upper middle aged white man ticket is not going to install thunder into the hearts of weary conservative voters or those in the middle who will decide the election. While Palin -- or anyone else for that matter -- is not a panacea, she certainly would bring numerous positives with her.

Palin may not guarantee that McCain betters his standings with conservatives or moderates and independents, or even helps him in the Rust Belt states. But as I mentioned earlier, she could aid McCain if he stays close and give his ticket the best chance of closing the whole thing at the end.

If I can remember one thing about the 2000 election (besides the Florida debacle), it was the impact that Joe Liberman had on Al Gore's campaign. Prior to Gore announcing that he had selected Lieberman to be his running mate, Gore's campaign was stagnant. He was down, though not insurmountably, to then-Gov. Bush in a race most felt was his to lose. The tapping of Lieberman unquestionably reinvigorated Gore's candidacy and helped close the polling gap to the point that Gore was in a good position to win. Sure, Lieberman did not deliver Florida in the end, or perhaps any individual state, but that is irrelevant. He was not picked for that purpose. No one knew the election would hinge on Florida (indeed, most people felt Gore would have to win the troika of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida). Besides, if Gore had been focused on finding a running mate who would have taken care of the Sunshine State, he would have just tapped Sen. Bob Graham (despite his diaries issue). Lieberman was picked because the campaign had lost its stride, and it wanted to do something different, and perhaps even unexpected.

Should John McCain find himself in a similar position as the summer gives way to the fall, which appears likely at this point, picking Sarah Palin could have the same impact on his own race. It could right a sinking ship and steal Obama's thunder before it is too late. Plus, whereas Lieberman garnered attention because he was the first national Jewish candidate in a general election and did not really provide anything beyond that, Palin would be a strong asset on the campaign trail until the end of the campaign. As I noted, she is lively and telegenic and would be a strong asset in both the short-term and the long-term as a good surrogate (though, I admit that Palin's mettle as a campaigner is completely untested). Palin presents several of the benefits the talented Jindal could bring, but minus his hard edge and extremist positions.

Given the state of the race, McCain should look to tap Palin at the point when he needs a jolt of reinvigoration the most. It is a risk, sure, and McCain may not generate near what he is looking for from the selection, falling flat on his face. In all honesty, I do not think McCain will win this election, and there is a good shot that Obama is going to win big. Plus, I readily admit that McCain-Palin could be seen as a stunt that falls flat on its face. Still, given the circumstances, it is a risk worth taking for Senator McCain.