John McCain's dilemma and a suggested strategy going forward

Introduction. I do not think anyone would dispute that John McCain faces a difficult path to win the presidency this year. Almost destroyed by President Bush's eight years in office, the GOP brand is less popular now than it has been since Watergate, or perhaps even before then. To paraphrase a Republican whose political skills I respect perhaps more than any other, the sharp Rep. Tom Davis, if the GOP brand were a dog food, it would have been removed from the shelf a while ago. Compounding McCain's mission are a host of problems, some of his doing, but many outside the scope of his control. These hurdles are worth highlighting to figure out (1) how he should shape his general electoral strategy going forward; and (2) how he can make sure his veep pick best works to combat his many problems.

Change is in the air, and it favors the Democrat. First, the electorate is looking to turn the page. Perhaps never in recent history has "change" been such a powerful and pervasive theme in just about every campaign of any significance. Nor has this been a Democratic phenomenon. Indeed, candidates on both sides -- Obama and McCain -- plus congressional candidates across the country have been running as agents of change: Democrats running against the Bush years, and Republicans against the Pelosi Congress and even conservatives who are seen as not conservative enough (see recently ousted Reps. Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01) and Chris Cannon (UT-03)). As a result, McCain is at a decided disadvantage if indeed change proves to be a key motivating factor for voters in the election. Whereas McCain is tied to an unpopular President, a political party that has faced numerous high-profile ethics scandals in Congress, and has himself been in the Senate since 1987, Obama will not have an "R" next to his name, he brings a "fresh face" in the truest sense of the word, and was only elected to the Senate in 2004. Most importantly, Obama is simply a younger, more telegenic presence. Even Republicans would be hard-pressed to refute this if you were to compare the two nominees on the stump. So, it is improbable that McCain can "out-change", if I can make up such an expression, Obama in November.

The Democratic base is energized for their nominee. Second, the Democratic party is hugely more energized than the GOP side. This was evident throughout the primaries as Democratic numbers heavily out-numbered Republican primary voters. Admittedly, many of the state disparities were due to the Republican race being effectively over so soon, but these trends were well established in the contests before that point. McCain will have to contend with an energized Democratic base which will manifest itself in many ways, particularly in the way of fundraising where Obama will raise incredible amounts of money that McCain will probably not be able to match. Obama's advantage here will almost certainly be harmful when the Democrat is able to carpet bomb ads in swing states up to election day. Furthermore, Obama will be able to use his financial muscle like a club in light-red (and even ruby red) states to attempt to steal some traditional GOP states. Indeed, Obama has already indicated he will pursue a "50-state strategy" similar to DNC chair Howard Dean's well known (and ongoing) operation. Conversely, McCain may lack the funds to pursue a similarly ambitious electoral strategy; rather he will rely greatly on free media by being constantly available and he will have to spend his funds much more judiciously and implement a narrower victory plan. Still, I must admit that the RNC will be able to close this gap, should it materialize, as it consistently outraises the DNC by enormous margins. This is a theme I will return to later in greater detail. One other point -- the current electorate is different from 2004 in two key respects. In 2004, the Democratic was certainly energized, but so was the GOP base; Bush ended up winning because he rallied his own base and conquered the middle just enough to cobble together 51 percent and a majority in Ohio. Now, independents and moderates are leaning heavily against the GOP. Perhaps more importantly, whereas the Democratic base in 2004 was mobilized against Bush (and not so much for the painfully unlikeable John Kerry), this year Democrats have rallied around their candidate, and not so much against their opponent. This is a key distinction.

The Republican base is not motivated for their nominee. Third, McCain faces an unquestionably unmotivated Republican base. This is not just an oft-repeated line; it is obvious when one looks at several areas. As already noted, McCain's fundraising, not including May, has been anemic, compared not just to Obama but to Bush when he ran in 2000 (albeit with an unprecedented fundraising machine). Additionally, even after McCain effectively sealed the nomination, Mike Huckabee (and even Ron Paul!) was able to post strong showings in several states, demonstrating that that core conservative concerns remained with a McCain candidacy. This unease is deep-seeded and long-standing, as many social and other conservative stalwarts and GOP supporters have long had problems with McCain's work in campaign finance, several of his environmental positions such as opposition to ANWR drilling, his attacks on Evangelical figures like Jerry Falwell, and his participation with Democrats in the well known "Gang of 14" that assembled in the Senate to untangle the GOP's number one red meat issue--federal judges. These fears thus clearly persist. Collectively, this all represents a huge problem for the Senior Senator from Arizona. While it is highly unlikely that even a moderately-sized chunk of the GOP base crosses party lines to vote for Obama in November, more troubling is the real prospect that a small, but nonetheless vital segment stays home. Given the closeness of the national electorate as evidenced by the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, as well as in a host of congressional and Senate races in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006, even a small shift could cost McCain in some key swings states like Virginia or Colorado (states with large Evangelical populations that generally vote Republican, but both could stay home given the unease of figures like Colorado Springs' James Dobson, for example) that will decide the election.

McCain is still within striking distance. Yet, despite all of these enormous problems, McCain can still attain victory. At this point in min-June, after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, he has not yet opened a wide lead in the national numbers. This is due to several factors, most notably the closely-divided national electorate, concerns among some independents, blue collar middle-to-lower middle class voters, lingering apprehension and resentment among some Hillary Clinton supporters, and McCain's own strengths. While Obama's lead may well balloon in the coming weeks and months (in fact, it has according to some polls released in the last few days by Newsweek and the LA Times, both of which have given the Illinois Senator double-digit leads), McCain is still within striking distance of the Democrat.

McCain must reach out to Republicans and moderates. In terms of addressing several of the key problems highlighted above, McCain will have a very tough time becoming a more charismatic nominee than Obama or effectively casting himself as a better changing agent than the Illinois Senator. Similarly, Democratic turnout will be high no matter what. Therefore, the two areas where McCain should focus on is (i) finding a way to increase Republican turnout, support (financial and otherwise), and excitement, and (ii) looking for ways to increase his support among independents and also cut into Obama's vote with blue collar voters and women.

McCain must focus on the Electoral College and try not to match Obama's broader national campaign. These objectives are a bit less daunting when one remembers that this race will be won not through the national vote, but the Electoral College. Here, too, McCain finds himself at a disadvantage among states that are safely or leaning Democratic versus those likely to end up in the red column. Before examining at the current Electoral College breakdown, it is valuable to first look at the map through the lenses of what should be McCain's general broader national strategy.

Barack Obama is already setting the groundwork to to run a bold, "Cadillac" national campaign, broadly working at a national level, awash in cash and good media coverage. He will fight hard not just to win the pure toss-ups, but numerous traditionally GOP-leaning places, such as Missouri, Virginia, and perhaps even Indiana. Because of his own lack of resources, McCain will probably be unable to match Obama by fighting hard to win states like California, Maine or New Jersey. Out of necessity, he will have to run a "Pontiac" campaign geared at doing whatever it takes to somehow cobble together the magical 270 Electoral Votes needed to claim victory. McCain is going to need to largely take for granted his base states; that is, until there is evidence that Obama's 50 state strategy is bearing fruit. Then again, at the point that Obama is highly competitive in the polls in Indiana and Georgia late in the game, then it is probably fair to say that it just is not a Republican year, irregardless of McCain's own strategy. Right now, as he is crafting his plans for up to November, McCain simply has to hope that this kind of tidal wave is not forming to wash him away.

For the purposes of convenience, it is probably best to classify the states into two categories: those states that are very likely to vote Republican, and the ones that are either toss-ups or leaners.

Republican states

Alabama (7 electoral votes). Democrats hold some hope that this state could be won by Obama based on the state's fairly high percentage of black voters (just over one-quarter of the state) and Obama's decisive win in the primary after the polls showed a deadlock there. Yet, while Al Gore polled a respectable 42 percent in 2000, Kerry only garnered 37 percent. Further, while 2006 was a strong Democratic year, Gov. Bob Riley was overwhelmingly re-elected after winning his first term by less than one percent over then-Gov. Don Siegelman. While Obama may hope to win with a huge black vote, Kerry won blacks 91-6 (while losing whites about 4-to-1) in losing big here. To win, Obama would need massive black turnout, and a better showing among a depressed white electorate. This is unlikely.

Alaska (3). This is another state where Democrats are dreaming big. There are already rumblings that Obama will make a late summer visit to the Last Frontier, becoming the first Democratic nominee to do so since JFK. A recent Rasmussen poll had McCain clinging to a 45-to-41 lead in the state. Mind you: in June. The Alaska Republican Party has been beset by scandals and ethics problems, and both Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young face difficult re-election fights as they both deal with potential Federal indictments. Though, it is worth noting that Bush's margin in the state dropped six percent between 2000 and 2004 -- before many of the scandals came to light. A Democratic win here in a presidential election would be highly unexpected, and a signal of a nationwide Democratic landslide.

Arizona (10). Bush nearly doubled his margin here between elections, and while Democrats have been making strong inroads here -- winning two previously-GOP-held House seats in 2006 -- the state is probably not ready to turn in presidential elections, even in the unlikely event that Obama taps Gov. Janet Napolitano to be his running mate. Not to mention that McCain is from here. A 6/25 poll showing McCain up 38-28 could be concerning, but personally I can't believe McCain's percentage is that low in the state.

Arkansas (6). Pluses: three of the four U.S. Representatives, both U.S. Senators, the Governor, and both the state house and senate are all controlled by well-entrenched Democrats, Bush scored moderate victories here (five and nine points), and Hillary Clinton probably could have contended here. Minuses: the state is just 16 percent black, the median income is $32,000 with about 40 percent of the population making $50,000 or less -- hardly an electorate that matches well with Obama.

Georgia (15). The Obama campaign and its supporters have been making noise that they will fight to win this state. While the state is nearly 30 percent black, it has become deep red territory since 2002, with Gov. Sonny Perdue and Sen. Johnny Isakson both winning landslide victories in their last campaigns in 2006, and Sen. Saxby Chambliss poised to do the same this year. Only a massive black turnout perhaps combined with an Obama-Sam Nunn ticket (which has been discussed lately, though Nunn has been out of office since 1996) could make this state seriously competitive. A recent poll had the race deadlocked, giving McCain a one-point lead. While this is great news for Obama, Georgia still is unlikely to turn. On a personal note, a friend and I have bet a steak dinner with two strong Obama supporters that McCain will Georgia, but my own desire for filet mignons and shrimp cocktails did not color my feelings here in the slightest--if anything, it was the reverse.

Idaho (4). This is one of the top five most Republican states in America. Even in the great Democratic Tide of 2006, the Democratic nominee for governor lost the open seat race by nine points, and Rep. Bill Sali won the open First District seat by five despite numerous problems with his candidacy. A reincarnated Frank Church would have great trouble winning here statewide.

Indiana (11). The 2006 House gains of three seats here was certainly impressive, but Barack Obama is the going to be the Democratic nominee for President on the ballot, not Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill. The districts of Reps. Mark Souder, Steve Buyer, Dan Burton and Mike Pence range from strongly Republican to overwhelmingly Republican, and the seats won here in 2006 are themselves reliably Republican. Only an Obama-Bayh ticket would have a shot, and even having favorite son Evan on the ticket would not assure Democrats of winning the Hoosier State. Then again, if a just-released poll giving Obama a one-point lead is to be believed, this thinking could be very wrong. A McCain loss in Indiana would mean a landslide loss for the Republicans.

Kansas (6). Has this state ever gone Democratic for President? Ok, it has: in 1964. And 1932 and 1936, even though favorite son Gov. Alf Landon was FDR's challenger that year. I may be in the minority, but even an Obama-Sebelius ticket would lose here.

Kentucky (8). Obama was trounced here in the primary, and the state is something like six percent black. The latest SUSA poll gives McCain a 12-point lead.

Louisana (9). Here is a state where we could see Obama's 50 state strategy in action. Even after Hurricane Katrina, the state has a large black population. Still, the state has been trending red and it probably will be out of reach for the Democrat. Democrats are fighting hard to protect Mary Landrieu in her Senate race and freshman Rep. Don Cazayoux, and are playing on offense in LA-04 (and potentially LA-07). Louisiana is a state to watch closely this season.

Mississippi (6). No one was happier when Travis Childers won the First District last month, and few feel as strongly optimistic that fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove can win Trent Lott's old Senate seat in November. Yet, while an unprecedented black turnout -- the state is about 37 percent black, the highest number in the nation -- is absolutely doable, Obama will have to find a way to crack the GOP's dominance of the white vote here. Both Bush in 2004 and Gov. Haley Barbour in his victory over Musgrove in 2003 broke 77 percent of the white vote in their races. There is a very reasoned argument here (worth reading) that Obama can win here. I just do not buy it. Yet. Latest poll from 6/26: Rasmussen gives McCain a concerning 50-44 lead.

Montana (3). The Good: Democrats now control the governorship (Brian Schweitzer) and both U.S. Senate seats (Max Baucus and Jon Tester). The Bad: Republicans dominate here in presidential races and blacks make up less than one percent of the state. The Ugly: only an Obama-Schweitzer ticket would have a ghost of a chance.

Nebraska (5). Even though Nebraska is one of two states that apportion its electoral votes by district -- one for each district won, and two to the winner of the state -- Obama will not win here, despite a recent poll showing districts one and two close and his intent to spend money on media and organization the Second District (Omaha).

North Dakota (3). An April poll showed the state close. If a misguided friend offers you good odds on an Obama loss, take 'em.

Oklahoma (7). Even if popular Gov. Brad Henry were tapped for veep, Dems would still lose here by double digits.

South Carolina (8). Even with a large black population -- about 30 percent -- this is a very tough field for a Democrat to play on.

South Dakota (3). Let me put it this way: if Tom Daschle could not put Obama in the primary win column against a dying Clinton campaign, how does Obama win here in November?

Tennessee (11). Harold Ford's 2006 race is instructive. Ford boasted strong statewide name recognition and a moderate voting record, ran unopposed in his primary, faced no incumbent but rather a vanilla opponent who survived a tough GOP primary, in a non-presidential year that turned out to be a landslide Democratic year, and he still lost, albeit by a close 51-48. This state is just too red, even if Memphis comes out big, which it will.

Texas (34). My hand is tired, so I will not bother explaining the obvious. But I will note a 6/26 Texas Lyceum poll showing McCain leading just 43-38. Let's wait on see before we move Texas out of the safe GOP category.

Utah (5). The most Republican state in America. McCain will likely run up his best national numbers here.

West Virginia (5). What was once a reliably-Democratic state in presidential races is no more. This state is a large collection of electorates predisposed to vote against Obama.

Wyoming (3). A recent Research 2000 poll had McCain only up 13 points here. I actually believe this state will be "close", and by that I mean Obama will lose by 40 points like Kerry or Gore. A 60-40 loss would be a moral victory, and it is doable.

Thus, McCain's likely base total (AL, AK, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY): 174 electoral votes. Again, if McCain is in danger in any of these states, he is in huge trouble and probably likely to lose decisively. Not a great start, and nearly 100 shy of a needed majority. Therefore, McCain would need to do well among those states in the middle, the toss-ups and true leaners.

It is worth noting that Obama's safe state's are as follows: CA (55), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), HI (4), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (5), NJ (15) , NY (31), OR (7), RI (4), VT (3), and WA (11), for a total of 190 electoral votes, a solid lead over McCain. Under ordinary circumstances, McCain would pour resources into CA, DE, ME, NJ, and OR, as states he would try to peel off. Given his lack of resources in this campaign, he will probably be unable to make any reaches.

The remaining states where McCain will have to find 100 electoral votes are: CO (9), FL (27), IA (7), MI (17), MN (11), MO (11), NC (15), NM (5), NV (5), NH (4), OH (20), PA (21), and WI (10). I realize my estimate are conservative at this point and do match the maps proffered by others much smarter than I, but I am not ready to push the leaners into one category or the other just yet.

While all 14 of these states could be won by either side, there are certainly those than lean to one side at this time.

McCain leaners: FL, MO, NC, NV, VA.

Obama leaners: CO, IA, MI, MN, NH, PA, WI.

With leaners included, McCain is in dire shape. With these states included, the totals are McCain 245, Obama 269, a grave situation for McCain, with Obama one electoral vote shy of winning majority. He would either to hold onto his leaners and then win all of Ohio (20) and New Mexico (5) plus another state or states, or find a way to take some of the Obama leaners. Plus, I readily concede that various polls indicate that nearly all of the McCain leaners listed above could be toss-ups very soon. At this time, I still think they are Republican-leaning, but that could change very soon, putting McCain in even greater peril. For example, a lot of people are saying Virginia is now leaning towards Barack in the polls. Maybe so, but the state has not voted blue since 1964, so I am not ready to forget that history based on a few polls in May and June. I think a little more time should be given.

It is here, from this perspective, that it is most valuable to analyze prospective veeps. McCain's challenge is immense: he must find a way to excite and bring conservatives, or True Believers, back into the GOP fold and also win the moderate independents and blue collar voters who decide these elections.

An overview of my McCain strategy. My suggestion for the McCain campaign is fairly complicated, but here goes. So far, this analysis has argued that McCain can win if hunkers down and concentrates on those swings states that can get him to 270 while hoping that his base states like Indiana, Georgia, and Mississippi hold for him in the end. This will run counter to Obama's very ambitious strategy of running a broad national campaign that is unprecedented in modern presidential politics. McCain has to hope that he can hang on nationally as long as possible, and thus in his base states, and that Obama's heavy spending in red states turns out to be a huge error in judgment. In other words, should McCain lose by over five points nationally, the race is going to be a landslide for Obama, and McCain is going to lose numerous GOP base states no matter way, demonstrating that Obama's broader national strategy was wise and ultimately successful. Conversely, if McCain is able to keep the margin close throughout the campaign until the end, he can put himself in a position to win the handful of swing states that he will need to get to 270. So, in essence McCain has to hope that Obama's spending in states like Alaska, Texas, and Wyoming turns out to be a waste (at least at the presidential level and saying nothing for the congressional races impacted), while he himself keeps focusing on places like Ohio, Michigan, and Colorado.

The next post will examine how Sen. McCain can implement this broader strategy in his vice presidential search.