The GOP's First Job For 2009

Far be it for me to give advice to the Republican Party, but I have a small suggestion for what will be a beleaguered and devastated party on the morning of November 5: do whatever it takes to find a wealthy and credible candidate to run for Senate in New York against Chuck Schumer in 2010.

An article in Roll Call this morning discusses the question of whether Senator Schumer will take over a third term as head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Schumer ran the committee in the 2005-06 cycle, helping guide the Democrats to an improbable six-seat gain and a new majority in the Senate. In 2007, with a more favorable map in front of him, Schumer agreed to run the DSCC operation once more, a move that was highly uncommon given the enormous amount of thankless work that goes into running a party's campaign arm. With Democrats now poised to make huge gains this cycle, there is much talk that Majority Leader Harry Reid will push Schumer to take the reins one more time.

If Schumer were to take over the DSCC for the 2010 cycle, it would be highly unprecedented. While the work can be unappealing, the endless fundraising brutal, and the stakes high as always, I think he will do it. I think Schumer will do it simply because he is a political animal, and enjoys being the top guy who helps control the chess board that is the U.S. Senate election map. For a true political junkie like himself, it does not get much better than that, even with all of the work.

Additionally, the job has its perks. For helping engineer the 2006 gains, Reid created a new leadership slot him the New Yorker, making him #3 in the caucus, and a top advisor to the Leader. Further gains this year will likely engender more good will, not just the leadership, but with the several new freshman with whom Schumer will have forged close bonds with over the last two years (in addition to the new freshman who were sworn in 2007). Should Schumer one day want to move up to Whip or Leader, he will have many chits to cash in.

And heck, with Dick Durbin just ahead of him as Whip, perhaps Schumer could parlay all of these gains into the Judiciary Committee chairmanship. This would be difficult since Schumer is below numerous other Senators on the seniority ladder, but not impossible. Patrick Leahy, the current chair, may end up as chairman of the Appropriations Commitee if Robert Byrd steps down. This would create an opening, and none of the names above Schumer's are insurmountable threats: Ted Kennedy (he has already chaired the committee, now chairs Education and Labor, and we all know about his health), Joe Biden (he will likely be in the White House, and if not, he is a former chair and current chair of Foreign Relations which he won't give up), Herb Kohl (weak), Dianne Feinstein (too moderate and concilatory to chair this high-charged committee), Russ Feingold, and finally Dick Durbin, who perhaps Schumer could make a deal with: Chuck gets the gavel in return for not running against Durbin for leader. Again, this is a long shot scenario, but it doesn't have to happen next year. Furthermore, I have zero doubt Schumer covets the gavel one day. Senate Judiciary is one of the most powerful and prestigous bodies in all of Congress, and it is also the single most partisan. Therefore, it would fit Schumer perfectly.

Anyway, the whole point is that Chuck Schumer has a lot going, and while he could ride out on top a la John Elway (who retired after winning back-to-back Super Bowls), I see Chuck rolling the dice and going for a third round at the DSCC to help preserve the majority and try to hard to expand it given what is right now a good Democratic map.

With all of this in mind, the Republicans should have a big mission in mind: find someone to run against Schumer in 2010. If the Republicans could find a credible challenger for Schumer, it could make his life much harder, and distract him from being as effective a DSCC chair as he has been.

It won't be easy. Schumer was elected to his second term in 2004 with around 70 percent of the vote over a hapless opponent. He is one of the best fundraisers in politics in the center of New York City, and he is a tireless (and shameless) retail politician, with skills he sharpened on the streets of Brooklyn and when he ousted former Senator Al D'Amato in 1998.

The whole problem is finding somebody. In 2004, Schumer was running for his second term, not his third, and 2004 was a bad year for Democrats nationally (though, to be fair, New York still went strongly for Kerry). 2010 likely won't be quite as bad for the blue team. The real issue is to find someone who has money and who is credible. Notice that twice I have listed money first, because really that is the key consideration. The GOP's mission should not to defeat Chuck Schumer. Given his stature both at home and in New York, as well as the state of the New York GOP, that is not possible. But if they can give Schumer a race, and make him have to worry and work hard, then they should be delighted.

Therefore, if I was advising the GOP at this point, I would tell them to scout far and wide to find some zillionaire who is willing to drop a big chunk of money against Schumer. This may seem like a small matter, but it would help them blunt a force that has been a huge thorn in the side of the party for the last two cycles.

However, given that the Republicans could not find anyone to face Hillary Clinton in 2006, I think it is highly unlikely that they can find an opponent for Chuck. Besides, I really don't think that they're that savvy anymore. But that's just my amateur's two cents.