New PVI Ratings (and what they mean)

In the last few days, the venerable Charlie Cook has released the latest Partisan Voting Index (PVI) numbers for all 435 congressional districts in the House of Representatives. As regular readers of T2L know, we rely heavily on Cook's famous numbers to provide a great gauge of a specific district's partisan lean, as well as great fodder for endless discussion of politics.

For those of you unfamiliar with the system, or curious about how a PVI is tabulated, here is what Cook says:

A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.

To determine the national average for these latest ratings, we have taken the average Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote for 2004 and 2008, which is roughly 51.3 percent, and that of Republicans, which is roughly 48.7 percent. So, if John Kerry captured 55 percent of the vote in a district and Barack Obama carried 57 percent in the district four years later, the district would have a PVI score of roughly D+5.

Like any other measure, the PVI is not perfect. Assuredly, there are a myriad of other ways to evaluate political lean or partisanship in a state or particular legislative district. However, given its rich history and strong reputation, I think Cook's system is the best we have in creating a thorough evaluation tool for congressional districts.

Last year, we looked at the PVI numbers of the 110th Congress in a variety of ways. Indeed, there are so many fascinating ways to dissect and examine PVI data, that one could spend ages doing it. Here, we spent a good deal of time looking at crossover Members; in other words, Republicans representing districts that have Democratic-leaning PVIs, and Democrats who represent districts that lean towards the Republicans in national elections. After drawing them all out, the numbers were pretty stark, and they are worth pasting below for review:

110th Congress

Republicans representing Dem districts (14)

D+0 -- Tom Latham (IA-04)

D+1 -- Bill Young (FL-10), Vito Fossella (NY-13)

D+2 -- Heather Wilson (NM-01), Peter King (NY-03), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dave Reichert (WA-08)

D+3 -- Jim Saxton (NJ-03), James Walsh (NY-25)

D+4 -- Mark Kirk (IL-10), Frank LoBiando (NJ-02)

D+5 -- Chris Shays (CT-4)

D+6 --

D+7 -- Mike Castle (DE-AL)

D+8, 9, 10... None

At the time I made this post (August), here is what I wrote about the Republicans' congressional situation:

These numbers are absolutely pathetic and should be troubling to any Republican. Of these 14, two seats -- Fossella's and Walshs's -- are almost assured of flipping in November, as both men are retiring (Fossella under bad circumstances), and the Democrats have strong nominees in each facing weak GOP opponents. Saxton is retiring, and the Democrats have recruited an excellent nominee (thought the race is a toss-up as the district has unique geographic which could favor the weak GOP nominee). And with Wilson leaving Congress after running for the Senate (and losing her primary), and Kirk, Reichert, and Shays all facing very tough races this year, all of their seats could potentially flip. At an absolute worst case scenario, half of these seats could be gone this time next year. More likely, I see four or perhaps five of them flipping -- still a good results for Dems and a bad one for GOPers. This would leave nine of ten GOP Representatives sitting in Democratic seats out of close to 200 Members in the caucus.

(As it turned out, Republicans ended up losing several of the seats which belonged to the retiring Members, as well as numerous other ones which did not appear quite as endangered in three months before the election.)

Democrats representing GOP districts (51)

R+0 -- Vic Snyder (AR-02), Carol Shea Porter (NH-01)

R+1 -- Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08), Tim Walz (MN-01), John Hall (NY-19), Michael Arcuri (NY-24), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Henry Cuellar (TX-28)

R+2 -- Allen Boyd (FL-02), Tim Mahoney (FL-16), Bart Stupak (MI-01)

R+3 -- Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20), Bob Ethridge (NC-02), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Jason Altmire (PA-04), Lincoln Davis (TN-04)

R+4 -- Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Moore (KS-03), Bart Gordon (TN-06), Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), Steve Kagan (WI-04)

R+5 -- Melissa Bean (IL-08), Bill Foster (IL-14), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dan Boren (OK-02)

R+6 -- Bud Cramer (AL-05), John Salazar (CO-03), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Zach Space (OH-18), John Spratt (NC-05), Alan Mollohan (WV-02)

R+7 -- Baron Hill (IN-09), Nancy Boyda (KS-02), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Don Cazayoux (LA-06), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Tim Holden (PA-17), Rick Boucher (VA-09)

R+8 -- Jim Marshall (GA-08), Chris Carney (PA-10)

R+9 -- Brad Ellsworth (IN-09)

R+10 -- Travis Childers (MS-01), Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL)

R+11 -- Ike Skelton (MO-04)

R+12 --

R+13 -- Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)

R+14 --

R+15 -- Nick Lampson (TX-22)

R+16 -- Gene Taylor (MS-04)

R+17 -- Jim Matheson (UT-02)

R+18 -- Chet Edwards (TX-17)

And here is what I said about the Democratic breakdown back in August (forgive the extended remarks):

The total here is a whooping 51 Members in GOP-leaning districts, with an impressive eight of them in seats which are R+10 or more. Try to conceptualize this for a moment. R+10 means that the district averages 10 percentage points higher to the GOP side in presidential elections. Think about that a minute. These are seats that go to the Republican presidential nominee by huge margins. And not all of them have been around forever: Childers was elected this May, Lampson in 2006 (after serving in the House prior to Tom DeLay's redistricting plot redistricted him out of his seat), Herseth-Sandlin in 2004, and Matheson in 2000.

Right off the bat, I acknowledge that several of these individuals won their seats under unique circumstances involving corrupt or otherwise seriously flawed GOP incumbents. This list includes Gillibrand, Space, Cazayoux, Carney, and Lampson. Furthermore, many of these Members -- 18, to be exact -- won in the tidal wave of '06, and therefore, some of them will probably have close races this fall. There is no question that specifically, Shea Porter, Boyda, Cazayoux, Carney, and Lampson are going to have a tough time winning.

But this should not take away from this list broadly illustrates. It speaks volumes to the Democrats' outreach that they have just over 50 Members of their caucus in districts that are Republican, with over half in R+5 or greater districts. This is nothing short of amazing, even if it is partially the product of a rare wave election. Indeed, most of these men and women, even several in the infancy of their career, have already carved out electoral niches for themselves, and face minimal opposition this November. Others like Skelton, Pomeroy, and Edwards are basically unbeatable in enormously Republican districts. Sure, just about all of these seats will be gone when some of these men decide to hang it up, but the fact that they have held on this long says a lot about the political diversity of House Democratic Caucus and the national Democratic Party in general. Further, there are also plenty of Republicans whose districts will promptly turn the year they decide to "spend more time with their families."

Taken together, the 14 vs. 51 number says a great deal about the present state and future direction of the parties. Going further, whereas only two GOP reps have D+5 or greater districts, 28 Democrats are in R+5 or more districts. And I have no even gone into this year's map, where a plethora of Democrats appear even or slightly ahead in red districts.

Needless to say, my view then was that the Republicans were in grave danger of becoming an entirely right wing and regionalized political party while the Democrats had much greater extended success in electing and subsequently re-electing and entrenching their Members in Republican areas, as the rosters showed.

There are a plethora of ways to look deeper at the numbers. One is to look at the extremes: whereas there are just three Republicans today representing districts of D+5 or greater -- pretty darn blue places -- there are 43 Democrats in districts with a PVI of R+5 or more. That is a ratio of more than 14-to-1. And of those 43 Democrats, 26 of them have been in Congress for more than two terms so far.

In light of the new PVI numbers which I am about to go over, my view has not changed at all. If anything, I feel even more strongly in my arguments of seven months ago, as Republicans have lost nearly all of their moderates in the House, and Democrats have further bolstered their ranks with conservatives from bright red districts across the country.

How could this be possible given the wide dispartity that was already in place in the 110th Congress? Well, let's take a look:

111th Congress

Republicans representing Dem districts (8)

D+1 -- Frank LoBiando (NJ-02), Pat Tiberi (OH-12)

D+2 -- Charlie Dent (PA-15)

D+3 -- Dave Reichert (WA-08)

D+4 -- Jim Gerlach (PA-06)

D+5 --

D+6 -- Mark Kirk (IL-10)

D+7 -- Mike Castle (DE-AL)

D+25 -- Joseph Cao (LA-02)

Democrats representing GOP districts (69)

R+1 -- Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Melissa Bean (IL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Bill Foster (IL-14), Tim Walz (MN-01), John Adler (NJ-03), John Murtha (PA-12)

R+2 -- Alan Grayson (FL-08), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Bob Ethridge (NC-02), Larry Kissel (NC-08), Kirstin Gillibrand (NY-20)*, Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Charlie Wilson (OH-06), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Steve Kagan (WI-08)

R+3 -- Dennis Moore (KS-03), Bart Stupak (MI-01), John Hall (NY-19), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)

R+4 -- Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Mike McMahon (NY-13), John Boccieri (OH-16), Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23)

R+5 -- Vic Snyder (AR-02), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), John Salazar (CO-03), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Eric Massa (NY-29), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Tom Periello (VA-05)

R+6 -- Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Allen Boyd (FL-02), Baron Hill (IN-09), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Harry Teague (NM-02), Jason Altmire (PA-04), Tim Holden (PA-17), John Tanner (TN-08), Nick Rahall (WV-03)

R+7 -- Mike Ross (AR-04), Zach Space (OH-18), John Spratt (SC-05)

R+8 -- Marion Berry (AR-01), Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Chris Carney (PA-10)

R+9 -- Ben Chandler (KY-06), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Alan Mollohan (WV-01)

R+10 -- Jim Marshall (GA-08), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)

R+11 -- Rick Boucher (VA-09)

R+12 -- Parker Griffith (AL-05), Charlie Melancon (LA-03)

R+13 -- Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Bart Gordon (TN-06)

R+14 -- Ike Skelton (MO-04), Travis Childers (MS-01), Dan Boren (OK-02)

R+15 -- Jim Matheson (UT-02)

R+16 -- Bobby Bright (AL-02)

R+17 --

R+18 -- Walt Minnick (ID-01)

R+19 --

R+20 -- Gene Taylor (MS-01), Chet Edwards (TX-17)

The two numbers to focus on here are eight and 69. As in, there are just eight Republicans sitting in PVI blue seats, and a whooping 69 Democrats in red seats. That nearly a 9-to-1 ratio. (Note that for the 111th, Cook has gotten rid of R+0 and D+0 districts, finding that any time a district can be rounded down to zero, it is now rated as "EVEN").

Despite four Dems in the 110th losing their seats last November -- Tim Mahoney (FL-16), Nancy Boyda (KS-02), Don Cazayoux (LA-06), and Nick Lampson (TX-22) -- all the others held on, and Democrats went from 51 to 69 (though, to be precise, some Members' districts went from red to blue in their PVI number). That is not an insignificant gain by any stretch of the imagination.

In total, I count 21 freshman Democrats on this list (including Travis Childers and Bill Foster who were elected in spring 2008 special contests). Additionally, there are 15 Democrats on the list who won their second term in 2008.

Conversely, only one of the eight Republicans listed was elected in the last four years, Joseph Cao, and he is a fluke congressman who I would bet my Xemex watch and Oakley sunglasses will be tossed out next year like garbage strewn about after Mardi Gras. In other words, the Republicans are not electing any new blood to moderate districts and they are stuck with a small pack of Members which seems to dwindle a bit every two years. Indeed, from the 110th, the seats formerly held by Heather Wilson, Jim Saxton, Vito Fossella, James Walsh, and Chris Shays are now in the hands of the Democrats, with only Kirk, Gerlach, and Reichert surviving rough challenges.

In the next post, I will consider the implications of these numbers.