Dodd in Danger? Nope

One of my favorite political writers, Steve Kornacki of the New York Observer, has a piece this week wondering aloud if recent weak poll numbers portend trouble for Connecticut Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Lieberman. While I have already recently written on Lieberman, I wanted to say a quick word on Dodd.

While the recent Quinnipiac poll gives Dodd a ghastly 41/48 approval rating, I think there is almost no danger that the senior senator will lose next year, minus some crazy scandal coming out. There are three simple reasons for this. First, Dodd is a state institution in Connecticut, and even if his numbers are low now, and even if they are low in 18 months, I find it hard to see Connecticut voters tossing him to the curb. Second, Connecticut remains an ardently blue state, and it has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Lowell Weicker won in 1982. Third, and perhaps most important is that the GOP bench in Connecticut is basically barren. As we like to say here, you can't beat something with nothing, and the state GOP has essentially nothing. Former Reps. Chris Shays and Rob Simmons might be good nominees, but just remember they lost House races in 2008 and 2006, so I can't envision them winning a statewide contest

If ultra-popular Gov. Jodi Rell were to shock the establishment in Hartford and run for Senate, then maybe Dodd could be in trouble. But until that happens -- and I think it remains highly unlikely as she will probably run for governor again -- Dodd is safe.

Specter's Strength

Quinnipiac was out with a poll earlier this week on Arlen Specter which I wanted to briefly reflect on. While the poll provides some initial numbers which appear quite poor for the incumbent Republican, closer reflections shows that Specter has considerable strengths as he seeks a sixth term next year.

Does Specter deserve to be re-elected?

Overall: 40% yes/43% no (-3)

Among Republicans: 42/42 (+0)
Among Democrats: 41/42 (-1)
Among Independents: 36/45 (-9)

Among Men: 41/48 (-7)
Among Women: 38/38 (+0)

These are not good numbers for any incumbent, especially a five-term one who has been involved in his state's politics for decades. Interestingly, Specter's re-elect number is basically identical with voters of both major parties (and it tanks with indies). Both Republican and Democratic voters are equally ambivalent about sending Specter back to Washington in 2011. Additionally, Specter seems strongest with women, which is good for him because he has stoked mixed feelings with many women over the years (traced back to the early 90s, when in 1992 he was almost toppled by a female Democratic candidate over his harsh questioning of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings).

Yet, as bad as these numbers may look at first glance, let's check out the senator's approval ratings.

Specter approvals

Overall: 56% approve/30% disapprove (+26)

Among Republicans: 55/33 (+22)
Among Democrats: 62/26 (+36)
Among Independents: 49/35 (+14)

Among Men: 56/34 (+22)
Among Women: 55/27 (+28)

These are pretty good numbers, but what sticks out at me is the breakdown by party ID. Specter is at a mediocre +22 with his own party. This is not terribly surprising since Specter has always tried to carve out a centrist path in his career, often earning the ire of conservative Republicans. Dissatisfaction among Pennsylvania Republicans came to a head in 2004 when Specter faced a strong primary challenge from then-Rep. Pat Toomey, and Specter barely won by just 51-to-49.

What is striking is how well Specter does with Democrats. That a Republican senator enjoys a +36 rating from Democratic voters in this day and age of extreme partisanship is pretty impressive. Republicans may not universally love one of their own, but many state Dems clearly have an affinity for the old codger.

What does this mean? In my opinion, it shows that Specter is in strong shape to win another term so long as he is not ousted in a primary. If Specter is at +36 right now, and he makes it to the general election, he should beat any Pennsylvania Democrat short of Ed Rendell, who is almost certainly not going to run against his friend and former boss Specter.

And unlike in 2004, a strong Republican primary challenge has not yet fully materialized. It may well still happen and we need to stay tuned, but until it occurs, Arlen Specter should feel pretty good for himself if he makes it to November 2010. Fogetting all of the DSCC's bluster and financial largesse, as we have already noted, the state Democratic bench is pretty weak, and it might be hard to win this seat unless Specter is beaten by another Toomey-type challenger.

As for Specter's weak re-elect numbers, while I think they are absolutely something the incumbent should worry about, they are not that terrible a concern. These days, voters are simply angry at politicians and Congress as an institution, so that kind of general, loaded question is going to get a lot of people calling for their unnamed rep or senator to be tossed out of office. Besides, I remember all last year, a strong majority of voters said Frank Lautenberg was too old to continue running and didn't deserve another term, but then he ended up winning by over a dozen points. Granted, New Jersey is quirky and the DSCC may aid whoever ends up facing Specter more than the NRSC ponied up to Dick Zimmer, but I think the comparison is valuable and certain valid.

There is a reason I put Pennsylvania at #7 in our rankings: I am not convinced in Specter's dire vulnerability or Dems' ability to recruit a winner. These poll results only strengthen this opinion.

"But No One Read It"

Perhaps the most foolish nonsense being circulated by many opponents of the just-passed stimulus is that no Member of Congress read the entire 1,000+ page piece of legislation before voting on it. For anyone who buys this argument, allow me to point out that as sad as it may sound, few Members of Congress ever entirely read a long bill before it is passed, particularly if leaders are pressed for time to act, as was the case here. Therefore, these criticisms are completely meritless and meaningless.

While in a perfect democracy our elected representatives and senators would read, pore over, study, ponder, and debate every syllable of a bill like something out of the founding days or a Frank Capra movie, this simply does not happen. Members don't have the time (and many do not possess the faculties) to read bills. It does not help there are literally thousands of proposed bills every Congress.

Is this ideal? No, it isn't, but that's how it is, and really, it does not matter nor is it a legitimate argument to make against this legislation or many other bills. Republicans are just trying to kick up dirt and de-legitimize the stimulus before it even reaches the President's desk.

Quote of the Week, II

"The President's relations with the GOP will improve as he learned the hard way that he could not cede all this control to the Speaker."
--Republican Rep. Fred Upton on President Obama received no Republican support in the House of Representatives for his stimulus.

Yeah, right. Note that Obama reached out personally to Rep. Upton, and hoped to get his vote before the jackals in the GOP House leadership convinced him that partisanship was much more important than working together to fix the economy. And all was right with the universe!

How many individual Dem House Members did President Bush reach out to in comity when he was President and his party held a majority in Congress? Let's see: add the three, subtract the one, carry the five....er....um....oh, I got it: exactly ZERO!

The only lesson Obama should learn from this debacle, if he is smart, is that Republicans have zero interest in working with him on anything. With strong majorities for his party in Congress, and personal approval ratings which remains high, Obama needs to exercise his muscle, and push aside a regional GOP which only cares about arond 10 states.

Quote of the Week

“Republicans are Republicans again."
-Rep Jeff Flake (AZ-06), proudly beaming after he and his Republican unanimously voted against the stimulus package.

I guess what Flake means is that Republicans are back to being obstructionists while offering zero ideas of their own in the name of partisanship, all while Rome burns.

I had no clue congressional Republicans ever offered anything else.

Political Dumbass(es) of the Week

The deserving party or parties for this award are quite easy: congressional Republicans, but specifically one congressional freshman who I will get to below. You see, the House GOP determined a while ago to unanimously stand together and courageously vote 'no' against President Obama's stimulus plan. No, they did not offer any other substantive or cogent ideas (minus more tax cuts, of course), but that's irrelevant to them. All that matters is trying to harm or humiliate the new President any way they can. While I can't say that I would do things exactly differently if I were a typical rank-and-file Member, exercising this strategy so early, so strongly, and in such a recklessly partisan way is a little much.

Yet, while it is easy to highlight foolish Republican obstructionism, I thought that one individual Member deserved special recognition for his political idiocy. That person is Rep. Joseph Cao (LA-02). Cao, who was elected in one of the biggest flukes in recent political history when he edged out perpetually-indicted William Jefferson in this New Orleans-centric district, has shown immediate signs that he has absolutely no idea what he is doing, and he has no intention of trying to win a second term next year. Here is the money part of a very telling article in Politico:

But Cao remained the most compelling storyline. The Vietnamese lawmaker shocked the political universe by knocking off indicted Democratic Rep. William Jefferson last year in the overwhelmingly Democratic New Orleans district.

He told reporters an hour or two before the vote that he was strongly considering a vote in favor of the stimulus measure after rejecting an earlier version – “At this point, I’m leaning ‘yes,’ but I’m not absolutely certain.” He reasoned that his heavily Democratic district could use the money with many of his constituents still struggling to rebound from Hurricane Katrina.

Beforehand, Cao acknowledged that Republican leaders had put “pressure” on him to oppose the package, and the party’s chief deputy whip, California Rep. Kevin O. McCarthy, stood near Cao during the entire vote.

“They encouraged me to vote ‘no,’ but they understand the needs of my district,” Cao said.

There is a lot here. Cao pulled a classic flip-flop. Okay, no biggie: cowardly Members on both sides do that every day. What is more salient, at least to me, is not that the House GOP leadership made the determination early on that their entire membership would vote 'no', but that someone like Cao would actually fall in line!

Memo to Rep. Cao: If you have an desire to win again, stop listening to your leadership! Your victory had NOTHING to do with the national GOP or the NRCC. Wisely, they had no idea you had any shot, and they did not do anything to help you win. You are a fluke, and as a fluke, you have no attachment to the whims and controls of your leadership. Sure, you face a near-impossible task next year, but at the same time, your unique circumstances allow you to vote however you want, which means you need to vote in a way to please your overwhemingly Democratic district, not what your Texas/Alabama/Georgia caucus wants. I will bet you a dollar that Nancy Pelosi was not upset when fellow freshman Rep. Bobby Bright voted 'no' yesterday, and his district is only half as conservative as your's is liberal (something like R+13 to D+28).

The fact is that GOP leadership used Cao as a pawn to bolster their own standing and to build a united conservative front against Obama and the Democrats. For 95% of their membership coming from the South, Idaho, Utah and crazy California, that's all well and good, but for the almost extinct Republicans representing Democratic districts, that is not helpful. Cao is an extreme example, of course. He is a fluke, a man with the political savvy of a sea sponge, so I can't fault him for being stupid and now understanding that he is being used as a pawn. But if GOP rising star Kevin McCarthy had stood next to me the whole vote, I would have voted 'aye' and stared him right in the eye. Cao should understand that when fall 2010 comes around, these jokers will not be spending a nickel on his re-election with dozens of other opportunities elsewhere and Cao down 30 points in the polls.

Sadly, Rep. Cao did not get that, and for this reason, he gets to share the T2L Political Dumbass of the Week award with the fellas running the H.M.S. Titanic, er, I mean the GOP House caucus. Great job.

Republicans Emboldened

Two articles out this weekend on a theme we touched on in our last post, namely that as President Obama's stimulus has hit rocky shoals and floundered, congressional Republicans have become increasingly emboldened, growing even in gleeful as they move to in united opposition to the President's plan. While this is not welcome news to the new President or the Democratically-controlled Congress, in a way it is a positive for Democrats. It can be viewed this way because it makes clear, very early on in the new administration -- really, just weeks into this new presidency and new Congress -- that Obama should not count on great cooperation from congressional Republicans for many of his key initiatives. From that perspective, last week's problems should be a learning experience for the blue team.

Coming out the November elections, the second straight brutal cycle that saw the GOP lose both houses of Congress and the White House, Republicans were dispirited, to put it mildly. Facing a hugely-popular President and strengthened Democratic majorities in Congress, Republicans were at a crossroads with no real plan to go forward, at least outwardly. As the two articles make clear, the stimulus has provided GOPers with that missing purpose. Republicans' renewed purpose is simple: oppose the President everywhere, with steely resolve and jubilant opposition.

From the Examiner:

They took a beating in November, but now, in the stimulus fight, Republicans are smiling again.

You see it all over Capitol Hill, in the hallways, the hearing rooms, the gathering spots. Republicans, coming off a devastating, across-the-board electoral defeat, are … happy. Being in opposition, after eight years of a Republican presidency and 12 years of GOP rule in Congress, suits many of them just fine.

Similarly, from the Washington Post:

After giving the package zero votes in the House, and 0with their counterparts in the Senate likely to provide in a crucial procedural vote today only the handful of votes needed to avoid a filibuster, Republicans are relishing the opportunity to make a big statement. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Tex.) suggested last week that the party is learning from the disruptive tactics of the Taliban, and the GOP these days does have the bravado of an insurgent band that has pulled together after a big defeat to carry off a quick, if not particularly damaging, raid on the powers that be.

"We're so far ahead of where we thought we'd be at this time," said Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), one of several younger congressmen seeking to lead the party's renewal. "It's not a sign that we're back to where we need to be, but it's a sign that we're beginning to find our voice. We're standing on our core principles, and the core principle that suffered the most in recent years was fiscal conservatism and economic liberty. That was the tallest pole in our tent, and we took an ax to it, but now we're building it back."

The second-ranking House Republican, Rep. Eric Cantor (Va.), put it more bluntly. "What transpired . . . and will give us a shot in the arm going forward is that we are standing up on principle and just saying no," he said.

Okay, let's be clear: a lot of these kinds of quotes from happy Republicans are garbage. Obviously, sitting in the minority, Republicans want to do their best to put on a smiley face and act like everything is going great in their caucuses. That's all well and good. But the fact is that the stimulus mess has allowed Republicans to at least gather up their bearings and unite together after a difficult election. At least right now, with Obama's most important legislation coming forward to Congress for its approval in the coming weeks and months.

Again, this should all be a wake-up call to Obama and his advisers. Republicans enjoy being an opposition party, and more, they are happy to be free of the burden of President Bush. As a result, the President should understand that while making small gestures to engender bipartisanship are great, he is going to have to get tough to get his measures into law or else other things will get bogged down like the stimulus, similarly weaking Obama and spending the precious political capital he worked so hard to amass.

Obama Must Quickly Learn Hardball

Let me get this straight. The long-running stimulus negotiation, which effectively shut down and held the entire process hostage, was done in order to get three Senate Republicans on board: Arlen Specter and the Maine twins? You can't make this up.

I am all for President Obama's decision to actively reach out to woo House and Senate Republicans on this and future initiatives. It is an admirable way to break the partisan gridlock which bloomed and festered under the Bush administration. I think Obama should continue to make nice gestures to his political adversaries in ways as simple as calling individual Republicans, going to speak with them about legislation, and giving them freer and friendlier access to the White House. Generally, no bad can come of simple niceties.

All of that being said, if this stimulus mess teaches the new President anything, it is that he cannot hang his hat on working with Republicans on anything important. He should continue trying, but if that avenue seems to be going nowhere, he should forget it and move forward with a plain majority from his side. In the first major initiative of his presidency, Obama reached out to the other side in ways his predecessor never reached to Democrats, and apparently what it got him was zero votes in the House of Representatives, and three votes in the U.S. Senate. These are not the signs of a group that wants to work with you or give any leeway.

And let me make clear that I do not fault the Republicans here. Politically, their obstructionism makes sense. If they help pass this measure, they are fully tied to it, making Democrats less culpable in future elections should it fail. However, if they join the Democrats in wide support and it succeeds in its purpose -- namely, providing a vital boast to the American economy -- they realize that President Obama and in turn the Democrats will get most of the credit, and not their party. Therefore, from their perspective, what's the point of supporting this bill?

That is all well and good, and I respect that, but President Obama and his advisers need to realize that the thought calculus the elephants are computing. Obama should thicken his skin and skull very fast, and ram through what he needs to push through quickly. As this debacle has proven, once again, when you let any matter sit and let opposition build, it is never a good thing for ultimate passage. We all knew this bill was going to pass way or another. The White House should have gauged GOP support, and when it found none, it should have pushed the stimuls through both houses right way, even if not a single Republican voted 'aye.' Once this bill is signed, how can Democrats claim it was passed with bipartisan support when only three Senate Republicans endorse it? You can rest assured that when it does pass, GOP leadership -- McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, et al. -- will be front and center bashing this stimulus. For all of his work in trying to cobble together a bipartisan super-majority, Obama ended up basically empty-handed, politically weakened mere weeks into his administration, and his bill is now watered-down to boot.

Over the life of this administration, Republicans have basically no reason to work with this President. Making the future of bipartisan endeavors even more unlikely, the GOP caucus in both bodies is now essentially bereft of any moderates -- all that is left now are hardline conservatives who believes the GOP lost badly in the last two cycles because it was not conservative enough. This is not a party that will be amenable to playing nice. The GOP knows that it cannot fell Obama now with his high approval ratings fresh off electoral victory, so it will engage in a war of attrition where it tries to bring down Obama and the Democrats with a thousand little cuts. You can score the last week as a series of small cuts.

Obama needs to realize this, and fast. Little gestures are one thing, but he must learn a new game: hardball.

James Whitmore

America has lost a fine actor with the passing of the great James Whitmore. While I am not familiar with all of Whitmore many great roles, I know him well from a memorable part in my favorite movie of all time -- and the best film of all time -- "The Shawshank Redemption", where he played the doomed prison librarian Brooks Hatlan. Whitmore also played Harry Truman in the famous one-man play, and later one-man film about the life of Truman, "Give 'Em Hell Harry." For his portrayal in the latter production, Whitmore became the only man to receive an Oscar nomination for acting in a film with only one actor.

Rest in peace, Brooks.

Lie of the Day

"Nothing has changed since the governor addressed this issue the last time.... She has made it clear to the Obama administration she is not interested in an appointment at this time."
-Liz Boyd, spokeswoman to Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm on the possibility of Granholm potentially accepting a future appointment to the United States Supreme Court.

That might be the most laughable denial from a politician or a politician's flack I have heard in a while. You can set your watch to it: if Jennifer Granholm were ever offered lifetime appointment to the High Court, she would physically walk over her entire family and all of her friends and loved ones to get the job. Heck, she'd knock them all to the floor if that is what it took. This is not Postmaster General, it's the Supreme Court, and this denial is typical political baloney.